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Top Football League Upsets & Volatility Digest (February 2026 )

03.03.2026, 07:03

TipsGG Data Team tracked 78,441 football tips this month across 4,662 unique matches, averaging 2,530 tips per day. We logged activity from 447 active sources, covering 387 leagues, with a global win rate of 50.1% and average odds played of 2.17. The most tipped competition was EFL Championship 2025/26 Regular Season with 2,613 tips. Our data managers monitor tips 24/7 to keep these snapshots consistent and audit-ready.

This report is strictly for informational and educational purposes. It serves as a statistical showcase of market trends and historical performance within the sports betting niche and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to place specific bets. Past performance is not indicative of future results. We encourage all readers to view this data as a retrospective market analysis rather than a call to action. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.

Browse more football coverage via the Football Matches hub, the Tournaments directory, and upcoming Predictions.

Top Leagues Upset 20

This section highlights the most significant upsets within the Top 10 global football leagues. Unlike our general upset list, these results had major implications for league tables and title races. We rank them by Winning Odds, showing you the matches where the bookmakers (and the betting public) least expected the outcome. The ‘Total Lost Tips’ column adds a layer of community context, quantifying exactly how many of tipsters we keep track of were on the wrong side of these surprises.

Tournament Match Score Winning Odds Total Lost Tips
Primeira Liga 2025/26 Regular Season Casa Pia vs Porto 2-1 11 58
Ligue 1 2025/26 Regular Season Lens vs Monaco 2-3 8.9 45
Serie A 2025/26 Regular Season Milan vs Parma 0-1 8.6 50
Eredivisie 2025/26 Regular Season Volendam vs PSV 2-1 8.6 63
Ligue 1 2025/26 Regular Season Rennais vs Paris Saint Germain 3-1 8.18 84
La Liga 2025/26 Regular Season Girona vs Barcelona 2-1 8 95
Pro League 2025/26 Regular Season Genk vs Standard Liege 0-3 7 12
Eredivisie 2025/26 Regular Season Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard 2-3 6.4 24
Bundesliga 2025/26 Regular Season Hoffenheim vs St. Pauli 0-1 6.4 49
La Liga 2025/26 Regular Season Atletico Madrid vs Real Betis 0-1 6.29 56
English Premier League 2025/26 Regular Season Crystal Palace vs Burnley 2-3 6 91
Serie A 2025/26 Regular Season Bologna vs Parma 0-1 5.85 29
Serie A 2025/26 Regular Season Como vs Fiorentina 1-2 5.2 55
Eredivisie 2025/26 Regular Season Nijmegen vs Utrecht 1-3 5.2 72
Bundesliga 2025/26 Regular Season St. Pauli vs Stuttgart 2-1 5 40
La Liga 2025/26 Regular Season Osasuna vs Real Madrid 2-1 4.92 51
Eredivisie 2025/26 Regular Season PEC Zwolle vs Volendam 1-2 4.9 31
La Liga 2025/26 Regular Season Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid 3-0 4.78 59
English Premier League 2025/26 Regular Season Wolves vs Aston Villa 2-0 4.7 59
Serie A 2025/26 Regular Season Udinese vs Roma 1-0 4.62 66

Top League Voaltility

This section isolates the 10 most popular football leagues to measure their competitiveness. We rank them based on Average Winning Odds – effectively a ‘difficulty score’ for prediction. We also break down the Upset Rate (percentage of matches where the favorite failed to win) and Draw Rate. This data reveals the distinct character of each competition: some are statistically predictable, while others are highly volatile markets.

Tournament Matches Analyzed Total Tips Avg Tips per Match Home Wins Away Wins Avg Winning Odds Upset Rate
Eredivisie 2025/26 Regular Season 38 1,259 33.1 17 11 2.96 44.7%
English Premier League 2025/26 Regular Season 42 2,521 60.0 11 19 2.95 52.4%
Ligue 1 2025/26 Regular Season 36 1,703 47.3 18 8 2.94 44.4%
La Liga 2025/26 Regular Season 40 2,177 54.4 19 11 2.79 45.0%
Serie A 2025/26 Regular Season 40 2,172 54.3 15 16 2.68 42.5%
Primeira Liga 2025/26 Regular Season 36 1,457 40.5 20 8 2.67 41.7%
EFL Championship 2025/26 Regular Season 62 2,613 42.1 25 24 2.60 45.2%
Bundesliga 2025/26 Regular Season 35 1,642 46.9 20 7 2.56 37.1%
Pro League 2025/26 Regular Season 32 885 27.7 15 13 2.55 43.8%

Make sure to follow TipsGG for more betting digests. We’re currently posting monthly recaps, but you’ll be able t ofind those weekly updates pretty soon as well.

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