The San Antonio Spurs snapped a 13-game postseason winning streak for the New York Knicks with a Game 3 victory on Monday, trimming the 2026 NBA Finals series deficit to 2-1 and avoiding the 0-3 hole no team has ever escaped in Finals history. The series now heads back to Madison Square Garden for Game 4 on Wednesday.
Tipoff from New York City is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. New York enters as a 1.5-point favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook, with the over/under sitting at 215.5. The Knicks are 32-15-1 ATS (68%) at home this season, while the Spurs are 17-8 ATS (68%) as underdogs.
Current Game 4 Odds
Spurs vs. Knicks spread: Knicks -1.5 at FanDuel
Spurs vs. Knicks over/under: 215.5 points
Spurs vs. Knicks money line: Knicks -131, Spurs +110
Model Context: 26-10 on Top-Rated Spread Picks
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has generated well over $10,000 in profit for $100 bettors on top-rated picks across eight-plus seasons. Entering these 2026 NBA Finals, it carried a 26-10 (72%) record on top-rated spread picks this season.
Top Prediction: Under 215.5
After 10,000 simulations of Game 4, the model projects the Under on the 215.5 total. The Over cleared in Game 3, but both Game 1 and Game 2 finished under the total with margin. Season-long trends reinforce the lean: 53% of New York’s games went Under, and 54% of San Antonio’s did the same.
The model projects only two players to reach 20 points in Game 4: Victor Wembanyama for the Spurs and Jalen Brunson for the Knicks. Combined team scoring in the simulations lands at 214 points, with the Under hitting in 55% of outcomes, making it a credible option for parlay construction.
Spread Pick
Beyond the total, the model identifies one side of the Knicks -1.5 spread that clears well over 50% of simulations. The full spread recommendation is available at SportsLine.
Stay with TipsGG for ongoing 2026 NBA Finals coverage, updated odds, and in-depth analysis through every remaining game of the series.
Read also: How to Bet on Basketball: Lines, Spreads and Totals Explained