Senegal vs Iraq Prediction: 26 June 2026 World Cup Group I Preview

Both Senegal and Iraq arrive at this Group I finale having lost their opening two matches, making this a dead-rubber encounter for World Cup progression but a meaningful contest for pride and form. Senegal, ranked far above Iraq on the global scale, are heavy favorites despite a dismal recent run that saw them win none of their last four matches. The most striking detail heading into this game: Iraq have conceded seven goals in twoWorld Cup matches, while Senegal shipped six, meaning both defenses have been completely exposed at this level.

Sadio Mané is the standout name for Senegal, with two goals and one assist across his last four appearances, and he remains the primary attacking threat despite his team’s poor results. For Iraq, Ali Al-Hamadi leads the forward line with six total shots in five matches and is the most active creator in attack, though he is yet to find the net at this tournament.

Hot stat: Ismaila Sarr has registered ten total shots in just three matches for Senegal, a striking volume that suggests Senegal’s attack generates far more chances than their scoreline indicates, and it points to significant wastefulness in front of goal.

Senegal vs Iraq Prediction

Senegal’s squad depth and individual quality make them the clear pick to win this match. Despite their poor form over the last 30 days, their underlying numbers are significantly better than Iraq’s across shots, passes, and interceptions. Iraq managed only 18 total shots across five matches compared to Senegal’s 37, which tells a clear story about who controls games and creates danger.

We predict a Senegal win here. Coach Pape Thiaw’s side will be motivated to salvage something from a failed World Cup campaign, and facing an Iraq side that has conceded seven goals in two games, this is their best opportunity to rediscover attacking form. The bookmakers’ implied probability of 78% for a Senegal win is well-supported by the statistical gap between these two squads.

Senegal average 1520 passes per five matches against Iraq’s 1160, and their pass accuracy of 1326 completed passes outpaces Iraq’s 970. Senegal also commits more fouls (37 vs. 26), which reflects a more physical, pressing style. Iraq’s yellow card count of four in five matches compared to Senegal’s one suggests Iraq struggle to contain pressure and could be reduced to ten men if the match gets heated. Corners also favor Senegal heavily at 18 to Iraq’s seven, which points toward a dominant territorial performance.

Team Analysis

Senegal’s World Cup campaign has been a significant disappointment. They lost 1-3 to France in their opener and then fell 2-3 to Norway in a match where they actually scored twice, showing there is attacking potential but severe defensive vulnerability. Before the tournament, their warm-up results were also mixed: a 2-3 defeat to the USA and a 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia, though they did beat Gambia 3-1. Their season-long win rate of 50% from ten matches is respectable, but the last 30 days have produced zero wins from four attempts. The squad clearly has quality, but defensive organization under Pape Thiaw has been a persistent weakness at this level.

Iraq’s record is equally poor. They lost 0-3 to France and 1-4 to Norway in the group stage, and their pre-tournament form was inconsistent: a 0-2 defeat to Venezuela, a 1-1 draw with Spain, and a narrow 1-0 win over Andorra. Graham Arnold’s side managed only two wins from six matches this year for a 33% win rate, and their last 30 days produced one win from five matches. The attacking output of just two goals across five recent matches is low, and their 18 total shots across those games reflects a passive style that will be punished by a Senegal side hungry for goals.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

There is no significant recent head-to-head history between these two sides. The table below reflects the available data from their current World Cup encounter context.

🚨 Check out our dedicated Senegal vs Iraq stats page for more info.

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Senegal the Favourite

• Moneyline Senegal 1.22 | Iraq 12.38
• Draw 6.77

The odds across bookmakers are consistent: Senegal sit between 1.20 and 1.24 at most major books, with Pinnacle offering 1.22, which is a fair reflection of the 78% win probability. Iraq’s price ranges from 11.00 to 14.70, and to be honest, the value is not there for an outright Iraq win given their attacking output of just two goals in five matches. The draw price at 6.77 on Pinnacle looks like a long shot given Senegal’s territorial dominance in recent games. Betfury’s inflated 1.40 on Senegal stands out as the best available return if you want the straightforward win bet. We see no compelling case to back anything other than a Senegal win.

Possible Starting Lineups

Senegal Possible Starting Eleven

Senegal most likely line up in their familiar 4-2-3-1, with Mendy returning in goal after featuring in three of the last five matches. Koulibaly anchors the backline and his experience will be tested against Iraq’s counter-attacking pace. In midfield, Gueye and Camara provide the defensive cover, while Diatta and Pape Matar Sarr operate in the half-spaces. Sadio Mané leads the attack and is the player to watch, having scored twice in his last four outings. Ismaila Sarr’s ten shots in three matches make him the most dangerous wide option, and he should get plenty of space against an Iraq defense that has conceded seven goals in two games.

Iraq Possible Starting Eleven

Graham Arnold also deploys a 4-2-3-1 shape. Jalal Hassan starts in goal with five saves across four appearances. Akam Hashim is the most active defender with 150 passes and three interceptions, making him the key organizer at the back. In midfield, Zidane Iqbal brings technical quality with 113 passes and solid interception numbers. Ali Al-Hamadi leads the line with six total shots and is the most likely source of a goal for Iraq, though his conversion rate has been poor. Merchas Doski is a notable name with one goal and strong defensive contribution from center-back, and his ability to join set pieces could cause problems.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Senegal should win this match, and we predict a scoreline in the region of 2-0 or 3-0. Their shot volume, corner count, and passing accuracy all point to a dominant territorial performance, and Iraq’s attack has been too passive throughout this tournament to trouble a Senegal defense that, while leaky against France and Norway, faces far weaker opposition here. Iraq’s two goals scored in five recent matches and their low shot count of 18 make it unlikely they find the net, which is why we back BTTS No alongside a Senegal win.

Perhaps the most telling number is Senegal’s 18 corners against Iraq’s seven across the last five matches each. Set pieces will be a major weapon for Senegal, and with Koulibaly, Niakhaté, and Mané all capable of winning aerial duels, expect dead-ball situations to play a role in the final score. We back Senegal to win, over 2.5 goals in the match, and Mané to get on the scoresheet.

Read Also: Senegal vs Iraq Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form (Updated June 2026)
Read Also: Senegal vs Iraq: Predicted Lineups for World Cup 2026 Group Stage Clash
Read Also: Senegal vs Iraq Betting Odds & Predictions
Read also: Senegal 2026 World Cup Preview: Squad, Odds, Prediction & Best Bets
Read also: Iraq 2026 World Cup Preview: Squad, Odds, Prediction & Best Bets

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