Novorizontino vs Cuiaba Prediction: 14 September 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B

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Novorizontino sit sixth on 36 points from 22 games, one place and one point above Cuiaba, who have needed 24 matches to reach 35. The gap in games played tells its own story: Cuiaba are the league’s draw specialists, with 11 stalemates already this campaign, while Novorizontino chase points through goals rather than caution. The two sides met in the reverse fixture back in May and played out a goalless draw, yet Novorizontino have not conceded a single goal to Cuiaba across their last three head-to-head meetings, winning that mini-series 4-0 on aggregate. That record sits at odds with the tight table positions and gives this rematch an extra layer worth backing.

Robson has been Novorizontino’s spearhead, scoring 4 goals in the last five matches on 16 shots, and he leads a front line that has bagged 15 goals in that span. Jean Dias da Costa carries Cuiaba’s attack, topping the squad with 12 shots over the same run, though he has just one goal to show for it, a sign of how much Novorizontino’s defense might be tested by volume rather than clinical finishing.

Hot stat: Novorizontino have scored 15 goals in their last five outings, more than double Cuiaba’s tally of seven, and Cuiaba have failed to score in each of the last three meetings between these clubs.

Novorizontino vs Cuiaba prediction

We back Novorizontino to win. Five straight victories in their last five matches, a home ground where goals flow freely, and a spotless recent record against this exact opponent point firmly in that direction. Cuiaba’s own form is respectable, three wins from their last five, but their away scoring output remains modest and their H2H history against Novorizontino offers little encouragement. At odds around 1.65, the favorite tag is fair rather than inflated, and our punters lean toward Novorizontino winning without reply.

Novorizontino average roughly 7.8 corners and commit around 13 fouls per match in their last five games, a pace built on width and quick transitions rather than physical roughness. Cuiaba log fewer corners (about 4.2 per game) and a similar foul count, with pass accuracy near 82.5% against Novorizontino’s 81%, a marginal edge in retention that has not translated into more shots or clean sheets away from home. The combination of Novorizontino’s tempo and Cuiaba’s careful buildup should produce a match controlled territorially by the hosts, even if Cuiaba manage spells of possession.

Team Analysis

Novorizontino arrive off a 3-1 win over Botafogo SP, their fifth straight victory, following wins against Avai (3-1), Sport Recife (2-1), Athletic Club (4-1) and America MG (3-0). That run of five wins from five nets an average of exactly three goals per game, and the defense has conceded only four goals across the same stretch, a ratio that explains the short home price. The squad looks settled around Robson up front, with Luís Oyama and Leonardo Naldi de Matos controlling midfield tempo.

Cuiaba’s last match produced a 3-0 win over Athletic Club, snapping back from a 0-2 defeat to Criciuma before that. Sandwiched in between are a 2-1 win over Botafogo SP, a 1-1 draw with Goias and a 1-0 win against Operario PR, a mixed but generally positive run of three wins, one draw and one loss. Jean Dias da Costa and Fabio Gomes carry the attacking weight, though the team’s tendency toward draws (11 in 24 league games) suggests a side more comfortable managing games than dominating them, which could matter against a Novorizontino side happy to press the tempo.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Novorizontino vs Cuiaba stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Novorizontino the favourite

• Moneyline Novorizontino 1.65 | Cuiaba 5.30
• Draw 3.48

Both tracked books cluster tightly around 1.65 for a home win and above 5.25 for the away side, a spread that reflects Novorizontino’s five-game winning streak and their spotless recent H2H record against Cuiaba. The draw price near 3.48 looks a touch generous given Cuiaba have only beaten Novorizontino once in the sampled meetings, but their league-wide habit of drawing games (11 in 24) keeps that outcome from being dismissed outright. We see the value sitting with the home win rather than chasing the draw.

Possible Starting Lineups

Novorizontino possible starting eleven

Enderson Moreira has stuck with a 4-2-3-1 across the winning run, and there is little reason to change a lineup on this form. Jordi has started every game in goal, Patrick Marcos and Madson Ferreira anchor a back line that has been tight recently, and Robson leads the line as the man to watch given his scoring rate. Matheus Henrique Bianqui, despite limited minutes, has contributed three goals off the bench or in cameo roles and could push for more time if the game opens up.

Cuiaba possible starting eleven

Eduardo Barros also favors a 4-2-3-1, with João Basso and Igor forming the defensive spine and Raul Lô Gonçalves screening in front of them. Jean Dias da Costa leads the attack as the focal striker and is the player to watch given his shot volume, with Fabio Gomes offering a secondary scoring threat from the wing. The away setup will likely prioritize compactness given the H2H scoring struggles.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

We predict Novorizontino win this one, and perhaps comfortably. Five straight victories, an average of three goals per game at home and a clean sweep in their last three meetings with Cuiaba all point the same way. Cuiaba’s attack has scored just seven times across five matches, and to be honest that number is hard to trust against a Novorizontino defense that has conceded only four in the same stretch. Our lean is Novorizontino to win without conceding, backed by Over 2.5 total goals given the hosts’ scoring pace, with corners tilted toward the home side’s territorial control.

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