Liam Duckstein
As the UEFA Europa League 2025/26 Round of 16 enters its decisive phase, Roma welcome Bologna to the imposing Stadio Olimpico. With both sides holding just a single point after their opening group fixtures (1-1 draw in their first leg), this return match takes on heightened importance. The tactical chessboard is set: Gasperini’s Roma, hungry to reignite some spark after a patchy run of form, face off against Vincenzo Italiano’s ambitious Bologna, a side whose away efficiency has confounded bigger names this season. Can Roma’s experience stifle Bologna’s emerging resilience, or are the Rossoblu set to script another Europa League surprise?
Two players to keep an eye on: for Roma, creative force Lorenzo Pellegrini (two goals, two assists in his last six run-outs) remains the heartbeat of their midfield, while Bologna’s Federico Bernardeschi is emerging as Italino’s go-to man in attack, netting twice in his last five and providing critical forward impetus. Both flair players can tilt the tempo of the tie and turn a cagey contest into a spectacle.
The “Hot stat”? Bologna have won a remarkable 75% of their matches over the last month—form that simply can’t be ignored in European knockouts.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2025/26 – Round of 16 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Olimpico, Rome |
| 🗓️ Date: | 19.03.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 22:00 CEST |
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Roma vs Bologna prediction
The odds slightly favour Roma—bookmakers pencil them at a 54% win probability, but considering the patchy Giallorossi form (one win in their last six) against Bologna’s steely recent run (six wins from eight), the main value lies with a cautious approach: “Draw No Bet: Bologna” offers superb risk/reward. Roma’s struggles to keep clean sheets (two goals conceded against Como and Genoa, a 3-3 draw vs Juventus) point to vulnerabilities, especially against Bernardeschi’s sharp movement and Jonathan Rowe’s nifty link-up play. However, Roma’s home aura and Gasperini’s tactical nous grant them edge in the biggest moments.
Examining the match-up, both teams display a combative edge: Roma have racked up 10 yellows in their last five games, while Bologna have run hotter (14 yellows). Fouls will abound, and the risk of cards is high. Interestingly, ball possession stats show Bologna shading Roma slightly in completed passes (2059 vs 1908), suggesting a slightly more composed build-up. Roma’s recent penchant for conceding from set pieces (26 corners conceded in five) adds another layer where Bologna’s aerial threats could pay dividends.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Draw No Bet Bologna |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Roma recent form and latest match: Roma continue to oscillate between spells of slick attacking play and defensive frailty. Their latest fixture, a disappointing 1-2 home defeat by Como, underlined these inconsistencies—Gasperini’s men dictated phases but were critically punished on the counter. Earlier, a 1-1 stalemate against Bologna in the away leg set the stage for this decider. Their run is punctuated by slip-ups, including defeats to Genoa, while notable positives include a thorough 3-0 dispatch of Cremonese. Pellegrini orchestrates much of Roma’s play, but a worrying trend of conceding multiple goals (eight allowed in last five) suggests a back line under duress.
Bologna recent form and latest match: In stark contrast, Bologna’s last five matches have been a showcase of momentum—six wins from eight, including a nervy 1-0 win over Sassuolo. Italiano’s pressing scheme and unpredictable 3-4-2-1 setup let the midfield dictate rhythm, with Bernardeschi starring against Pisa and Sassuolo. Their only recent puncture came at Verona (a narrow 1-2 loss), but Bologna shrugged that off with a string of victories propelled by their industrious, high-interception midfield. The 1-1 draw at home to Roma may seem modest, but the performance metrics hint at a team on the ascendancy, full of belief and tactical discipline.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Roma | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 5 |
| Total shots | 45 | 39 |
| Free kicks | 27 | 32 |
| Corner kicks | 24 | 29 |
| Total fouls | 55 | 51 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 81 | 84 |
| Interceptions | 33 | 30 |
| Offsides | 8 | 11 |
🚨Read our full Roma vs Bologna stats for more analysis.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Roma the favourite
- Moneyline Roma 1.79 | Bologna 4.80
- Draw 3.55
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.19 | Under 2.5 1.60
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.87 | No 1.91
The bookmakers are leaning into Roma’s home aura and historic pedigree, but their recent form doesn’t justify short odds against this Bologna side. The draw and under 2.5 offer understated value given both teams’ recent defensive approaches and the high-pressure scenario—a goalless deadlock wouldn’t shock. “Both teams to score” is an enticing punt with both sides showing attacking teeth yet lacking ironclad back lines. Crucially, Roma’s defensive lapses open the door for a cheeky Bologna upset.
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Possible Starting Lineups
Roma possible starting eleven
- GK: Mile Svilar
- DF: Zeki Çelik, Gianluca Mancini, Evan Ndicka, Konstantinos Tsimikas
- MF: Bryan Cristante, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Manu Koné
- FW: Donyell Malen, Robinho Vaz, Bryan Zaragoza
The foundation is built upon Svilar in goal, whose shot-stopping has been vital even as the defence in front of him wobbles. Mancini and Ndicka must marshal a back four that has leaked goals of late, while Pellegrini’s playmaking is essential to unlock stubborn Bologna lines. Donyell Malen’s pace is Roma’s X-factor in attack. Expect a traditional 4-3-3, seeking early dominance in possession and quick vertical play; watch for Malen’s surges and Pellegrini’s floated balls into pockets between lines.
Bologna possible starting eleven
- GK: Łukasz Skorupski
- DF: Jhon Lucumi, Nicolo Casale, Martin Vitik
- MF: Nadir Zortea, Remo Freuler, Nikola Moro, Juan Miranda
- FW: Jonathan Rowe, Federico Bernardeschi, Jens Odgaard
Bologna’s recent success is hinged on Italiano’s flexible 3-4-2-1, blending the solidity of Lucumi and Vitik at the back with the dynamism of Zortea and Miranda on the flanks. Bernardeschi and Rowe give them unpredictable incision just behind spearhead Odgaard. With Skorupski’s steady hands, the Rossoblu will look to draw Roma out and counter, especially as the match progresses. Bernardeschi will be the man to watch—a big game player thriving under pressure and likely to exploit Roma’s set-piece wobbles.
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Bologna. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
My take on the Match
After dissecting all the evidence, my primary prediction tilts towards a tense, tactical stalemate—or a late Bologna heist if Roma falter under pressure. Roma must rediscover their clinical edge, but Bologna’s organisation and confidence on their travels can’t be undervalued. The Draw No Bet Bologna market offers quality for punters, and the under 2.5 goals angle reflects the high stakes and defensive emphasis both coaches will likely adopt. Ultimately, this match feels poised on a knife-edge. One moment of Pellegrini magic, or a Bernardeschi burst, could tip the night. Yet as things stand, the visitors seem better poised to spring a surprise—don’t blink!
