Levi Rothermund
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Lugano host Maccabi Tel Aviv at AIL Arena in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League 2026/27 Playoffs. Both sides arrive in strong form, but Lugano’s recent domestic output has been exceptional, with the Swiss side putting 13 goals past opponents in their last five matches. Maccabi come in battle-tested from a two-legged tie against CSKA Sofia, though that campaign had some turbulence. Kenny Miller’s side are ranked higher globally, which makes the bookmakers’ numbers interesting given that Lugano hold the home advantage and the momentum.
Kevin Behrens leads Lugano’s attack with four goals in four games and is the player to watch at AIL Arena. For Maccabi Tel Aviv, Dor Peretz has been the standout contributor up front with two goals across his four recent appearances, and his ability to press and hold the ball will test Lugano’s backline.
A hot stat worth flagging: Lugano put five past Zurich in their most recent domestic cup fixture, with zero goals conceded. That level of attacking output at home is hard to ignore when assessing value in this match.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27 – Playoffs |
| 🏟 Venue: | AIL Arena, Lugano |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:30 CEST |
Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction
Lugano at home is the clearest angle here. The Swiss side have won seven of their last eight matches, conceded almost nothing in recent weeks, and their attack has been clicking at a consistent rate. Maccabi Tel Aviv had a shaky stretch before finding form late, and their away record in European competition is not yet proven in this campaign.
We think a Lugano win is the best value bet for this first leg. The odds around 2.00 on the home side represent real value given the form gap and home advantage. Maccabi are not without threat, Peretz and Sayd Abu Farhi have both scored recently, but Lugano’s defensive organisation, led by Lars Lukas Mai and Antonios Papadopoulos, looks solid enough to keep things tight.
Lugano averaged 79 total shots in their last five matches compared to Maccabi’s 52, and the Swiss side also registered 27 corner kicks to Maccabi’s 26. Lugano’s pass accuracy of 2111 out of 2358 attempts shows a team comfortable controlling possession. Maccabi picked up seven yellow cards in five games, suggesting a physical approach that could draw fouls and disrupt their own rhythm. Lugano, by contrast, recorded zero yellow cards across the same period, which points to a disciplined, structured side less likely to be rattled under pressure.
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | Lugano to score in both halves |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Lugano have been in outstanding shape. Seven wins from eight matches over the past 30 days, and their recent five-game stretch shows a team that can score freely and defend well simultaneously. The 5-0 win over Zurich stands out, but their 2-2 draw against NSI Runavik in the Conference League qualifier was a brief blip rather than a sign of fragility. Coach Mattia Croci-Torti has his side organised in a 4-3-3 that creates width and generates high shot volumes.
Their most recent match, a 10-1 win over Vedeggio Calcio, was a domestic cup fixture against lower-level opposition, so the scoreline needs context. Still, the confidence and sharpness it breeds heading into a European playoff is a real factor.
Maccabi Tel Aviv went four wins from five in the past 30 days, but the path there was uneven. They lost 0-3 to CSKA Sofia in the first leg of their previous European tie before recovering with a 3-1 win in the second leg. That reversal shows character, but it also shows they can be vulnerable when opponents press them early. Their 1-0 win over Netanya in their most recent domestic fixture was tight and functional rather than convincing.
Kenny Miller has built a side that defends with numbers and relies on transitions, but their stat line from the last five matches raises questions about sustainability in possession-heavy games. The yellow card count suggests they foul regularly to break up play, which against a sharp Lugano side could be costly.
🚨Check out our dedicated Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv stats page for more info.
Maccabi Tel Aviv. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Lugano the Favourite
- Moneyline Lugano 2.05 | Maccabi Tel Aviv 3.45
- Draw 3.50
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
Lugano sitting at around 2.00 to 2.05 feels fair, maybe even slightly generous given their home form and goal output. Maccabi at 3.25 to 3.45 reflects their status as a capable but inconsistent European traveller. The draw at 3.50 to 3.65 is the market’s way of acknowledging that neither side is dominant enough to make this a formality. We think the home win is where the value sits, and honestly, anything north of 2.00 on a team scoring at this rate at home is worth taking.
Possible Starting Lineups
Lugano Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: David von Ballmoos
- DF: Lars Lukas Mai, Antonios Papadopoulos, Mattia Zanotti, Damian Kelvin
- MF: Uran Bislimi, Anto Grgic, Yanis Cimignani
- FW: Renato Steffen, Kevin Behrens, Elias Pihlstrom
This 4-3-3 picks itself based on playing time and contribution over the last five matches. David von Ballmoos starts in goal, with seven saves and consistent minutes. The back four of Mai, Papadopoulos, Zanotti, and Kelvin has been Lugano’s most-used defensive unit. Bislimi anchors the midfield with 366 passes in four games, while Grgic adds three assists from a deeper role. Up front, Kevin Behrens is the focal point with four goals, and Cimignani’s three goals from midfield make him a genuine double threat. Pihlstrom provides energy and pace on the left flank.
Maccabi Tel Aviv Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Ofek Melika
- DF: Raz Shlomo, Mohamed Ali Camara, Noam Ben Harush, Tyrese Asante
- MF: Issouf Bemba Sissokho, Ido Shahar, Roy Revivo
- FW: Dor Peretz, Sayd Abu Farhi, Hélio Varela
Ofek Melika has started all four recent matches in goal. The back four is built around Raz Shlomo and Mohamed Ali Camara, both regular starters with significant minutes. Issouf Bemba Sissokho has played every minute in midfield and contributed a goal, while Roy Revivo’s two assists make him the creative hub. Up front, Dor Peretz and Sayd Abu Farhi both carry two goals each and are the most direct scoring threats for Kenny Miller’s 4-3-3 setup. Hélio Varela adds width and pressing work from the front line.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Lugano. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Lugano are the team in better shape heading into this first leg. Their attacking numbers are significantly higher than Maccabi’s across the last five matches, their defensive discipline is strong, and they carry real European motivation at home. Maccabi have shown they can recover from setbacks, but facing a Lugano side that has conceded nothing at home recently and scores regularly is a tough ask.
We back Lugano to win this first leg, with goals at both ends making the match competitive but ultimately going the Swiss side’s way. Behrens is in the form of his life, Cimignani adds unpredictability, and the home crowd at AIL Arena gives Croci-Torti’s side a genuine edge. Maccabi’s physical approach and yellow card accumulation could leave them exposed in a game where Lugano’s passing structure should dominate.
Our prediction: Lugano Win, Both Teams to Score, Over 2.5 Goals.
