Alex MacQuoid
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Atalanta enter this Conference League playoff first leg at the New Balance Arena as heavy favorites, and honestly the gap in world club rankings between these two sides is enormous. Maurizio Sarri’s side have won three of their last four matches, though a loss does sit in that recent run, and Hapoel Tel Aviv arrive having beaten Kiryat Shmona in their most recent outing under Elyaniv Barda. The Israeli side actually showed some fight in their two-legged tie against GKS Katowice, winning the second leg 2-0 after losing the first, which is worth keeping in mind when thinking about how they approach a two-legged European playoff.
Two players to watch: Nikola Krstović scored in Atalanta’s most recent match against Athletic Bilbao and has looked sharp in limited minutes, while Hapoel’s Emmanuel Boateng has contributed two goals across the last four matches and carries a physical threat that could test Atalanta’s backline on the counter.
Hot stat: Hapoel Tel Aviv have scored seven goals across their last five matches, averaging 1.4 per game, and they managed a 2-2 draw against Ludogorets, a side ranked considerably higher than them. That attacking output is not nothing.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, Playoffs |
| 🏟 Venue: | New Balance Arena, Bergamo |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:30 CEST |
Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv prediction
Atalanta winning this match is the most straightforward call here. The bookmakers have them at 80% win probability and the underlying stats back that up. Sarri’s side beat Athletic Bilbao 1-0 in their last outing, a tidy defensive performance, and prior to that dismantled Schalke 04 3-0. Their squad depth, European experience, and home advantage make them very difficult to bet against in a first leg at Bergamo.
Hapoel did show resilience against Ludogorets across two legs, but Atalanta are a significantly different proposition. The concern for the home side is that their last five matches show only one goal scored in the most recent game, and their shot volume has been relatively modest at nine total shots in that last match. Sarri’s system typically demands high pressing and positional discipline, which can sometimes suppress attacking fluency early in a match. Still, the quality differential is too large to ignore.
We think Atalanta win and keep a clean sheet is the value play here. Hapoel’s attacking threats, while real, have largely been tested against domestic Israeli opposition and a modest Polish side. Atalanta’s defensive structure under Sarri, combined with the 4-2-3-1 shape that gives them double pivot protection, should be enough to keep things quiet at the back.
On the style front, Atalanta recorded 14 fouls and two yellow cards in their last match, which suggests a physical but controlled approach. Hapoel picked up seven yellow cards across their last five matches, meaning they tend to get into disciplinary trouble, particularly when pressed. That could open up free kick opportunities for Atalanta in dangerous areas. Atalanta’s pass accuracy in their recent matches has been solid, suggesting they will dominate possession and dictate tempo, which typically reduces the corner and set-piece exposure for the visiting side.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Atalanta to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 1.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Atalanta have been in decent form across the past 30 days, winning three and losing one from four matches. Their most recent game, a 1-0 win over Athletic Bilbao, was tight but controlled. Krstović got the goal, and the team managed the match well without being particularly expansive. Before that, the 3-0 win over Schalke 04 showed genuine attacking quality when the opposition allowed space. The loss came against Feyenoord, 1-2, which is a reminder that Atalanta are not impenetrable at the back, particularly against sides that press high and transition quickly. Sarri’s system with the 4-2-3-1 relies heavily on the double pivot in midfield, and de Roon’s presence anchors that structure, even if his recent minutes have been limited. Scalvini continues to be one of the more reliable defenders in Serie A, and his 71 minutes of playing time in the last match suggest he is a first-choice starter.
Hapoel Tel Aviv come into this fixture on the back of a narrow 2-1 win over Kiryat Shmona, which followed a 1-2 defeat to GKS Katowice in the first leg of their previous playoff tie. They bounced back to win the second leg 2-0, which showed character. Their five-match run includes a draw and a loss, but three wins and seven goals scored tells a story of an attacking side that is willing to commit forward. Stav Torial has two goals and one assist in four matches and is arguably their most dangerous player in the final third. Omri Altman adds creativity with two assists in four appearances. The concern for Hapoel is that their defensive record against higher-ranked European opposition has been shakier, and Atalanta’s press will be something they have not faced before in this campaign.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Atalanta | Hapoel Tel Aviv |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv stats page for more info.
Hapoel Tel Aviv. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Atalanta the favourite
- Moneyline Atalanta 1.11 | Hapoel Tel Aviv 14.00
- Draw 7.00
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The moneyline odds for Atalanta sit between 1.10 and 1.16 across the major books, which reflects just how dominant the market expects them to be. At those prices, the straight win is not great value on its own. The draw at 7.00 with bet365 is priced for a reason, but it is not entirely unreasonable to consider as a hedge given Atalanta’s recent tendency to grind out narrow results rather than blow teams away. Hapoel at 14.00 or higher is essentially the market saying this is a near-impossible outcome, and we agree with that assessment. The best value in this match is likely in the Asian handicap or the Atalanta clean sheet market rather than the raw moneyline.
Possible Starting Lineups
Atalanta possible starting eleven
- GK: Marco Carnesecchi
- DF: Honest Ahanor, Giorgio Scalvini, Sead Kolašinac, Lorenzo Bernasconi
- MF: Marten de Roon, Éderson José dos Santos
- MF: Raoul Bellanova, Lazar Samardzic, Davide Zappacosta
- FW: Nikola Krstović
Carnesecchi is the clear first-choice keeper and should start. The back four picks itself based on recent appearances, with Scalvini and Kolašinac as the central partnership and Ahanor and Bernasconi providing width. De Roon and Éderson form the double pivot that Sarri’s 4-2-3-1 demands. Samardzic in the ten role is interesting given his 72 minutes of playing time recently and two free kick attempts. Bellanova and Zappacosta offer attacking width from midfield positions. Krstović leads the line after his goal against Bilbao. Raspadori and Kamal Deen Sulemana offer useful options from the bench if Sarri wants to change the dynamic in the second half.
Hapoel Tel Aviv possible starting eleven
- GK: Assaf Tzur
- DF: Fernand Mayembo, Chico, Marcus Coco, Doron Leidner
- MF: Lucas de Oliveira Teodoro Falcão, Andrian Kraev
- MF: Roee Alkokin, Yam El Kancepolsky
- FW: Stav Torial, Emmanuel Boateng
Assaf Tzur has been the first-choice goalkeeper across four of the last five matches and starts here. Mayembo, Chico, Coco, and Leidner form a back four that has been consistent in selection, though Chico carries two yellow cards and a goal from his defensive role, suggesting he is active in set pieces. Lucas Falcão and Kraev sit as the double pivot. Alkokin provides the creative link between midfield and attack, while Torial and Boateng lead the line in a 4-2-3-1 mirror of Atalanta’s shape. Barda may look to be compact and hit on the counter, which is probably the most realistic game plan available to him at the New Balance Arena.
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Atalanta. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Atalanta are the clear pick here. The quality gap between a Serie A side with European pedigree and an Israeli league outfit is significant, and the stats from recent matches reinforce that. Sarri’s side have the defensive structure and the midfield control to manage this match without too much stress. Hapoel will not be passive, they have shown attacking intent across their last five games, but we think the Bergamo atmosphere and Atalanta’s pressing game will limit them to very little in the final third.
We are going with an Atalanta win to nil. Krstović has found his scoring touch, Samardzic is the creative wildcard who can unlock a defensive block, and the home side’s pass accuracy and interception numbers suggest they will dominate the ball for long stretches. Hapoel’s seven yellow cards across five matches tells you they can get ragged under pressure, and Atalanta will exploit that. The first leg should give Bergamo a comfortable cushion heading into the second leg.
