Liam Duckstein
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PAOK and Brann meet at Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League 2026/27 Playoffs. The Greek side enters on home soil as clear favorites, but Brann arrive in form and with goals in their legs. These two sides met just last season in the UEFA Europa League group stage, drawing 1-1, which tells you Brann are more than capable of keeping things competitive at this level.
Two players stand out ahead of this fixture. For Brann, Niklas Castro has been outstanding recently, scoring three goals and adding an assist across his last five matches. On the PAOK side, Baptiste Santamaria has been a driving force in midfield, contributing a goal and eight interceptions in his last four games, showing both offensive and defensive presence.
A stat worth highlighting: Brann have scored 11 goals in their last five matches, firing 80 total shots, nearly double the 56 that PAOK have managed in the same span. Norwegian sides do not often arrive in European playoff ties looking this sharp in attack.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, Playoffs |
| 🏟 Venue: | Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:45 CEST |
PAOK vs Brann Prediction
PAOK hold the home advantage and the bookmakers back them at around 56%, but the odds on offer are tight. Alessio Lisci’s side has been inconsistent in recent weeks, going out of their previous European round to Anderlecht after losing both legs, conceding four goals across those two matches. Their defensive shape is a concern heading into this tie.
Brann, under Eirik Horneland, have won four of their last seven matches and lost just twice, with their most recent result being a 3-0 win over HamKam. The Norwegian side plays with real attacking intent, and their 29 corner kicks in five matches suggests they apply sustained pressure in wide areas.
PAOK average more fouls per match (nearly 10 per game from their last five) compared to Brann’s considerably lower 4 per game. That discipline gap could become a factor in a high-stakes playoff environment. PAOK also carry two red cards from their last five matches, which points to a squad that plays on the edge. Brann’s pass accuracy is lower, reflecting a more direct style, but their shot volume and corner output suggest they create enough to threaten.
We predict PAOK to win this first leg, but Brann’s firepower makes a clean sheet unlikely for the hosts. The most valuable bet here is on both teams to score, given the attacking output from Brann and PAOK’s recent defensive vulnerability.
- Best Value Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes
- Match Result: PAOK Win
- Total Goals: Over 2.5
| 🔥Hot Tip: | PAOK to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
PAOK’s recent European campaign ended in disappointment. They beat Anderlecht 2-0 on aggregate expectations after winning 2-0 at home to Dynamo Kyiv and 3-2 in the second leg, but then fell to Anderlecht 0-1 and 2-3, crashing out across two legs. Lisci’s side has shown it can produce at home, but the defensive errors at key moments are a pattern that Brann’s attackers could exploit. Their form across the last 30 days reads two wins and two losses from four games, with no draws, suggesting a team of extremes rather than consistency.
Brann enter this tie in better shape across the board. Their last five results include a 3-0 win over HamKam, a 4-2 victory over Apollon Limassol in the second leg of their previous round, and a 3-1 win over U. Cluj. The one blemish was a 0-1 home loss to Apollon in the first leg, which they comfortably overturned. That turnaround ability is notable. Horneland has built a team that responds well under pressure, and their attacking trio of Castro, Noah Jean Holm, and Kristall Mani Ingason have all found the net regularly in recent matches.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | PAOK | Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated PAOK vs Brann stats page for more info.
Brann. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: PAOK the Favourite
- Moneyline PAOK 1.62 | Brann 4.75
- Draw 3.70
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The odds reflect a clear expectation that PAOK take this at home, and at 1.62 the value is limited for a straightforward PAOK win. Brann at 4.75 looks generous given their recent form and their history of competitive results at this level. The draw at 3.70 is worth noting too, given the 1-1 result these sides produced the last time they met.
Possible Starting Lineups
PAOK Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Jiří Pavlenka
- DF: Jonjoe Kenny, Giannis Michailidis, Aritz Elustondo, Jonathan Gómez
- MF: Baptiste Santamaria, Mady Camara, Christos Zafeiris
- FW: Andrija Živković, Anestis Mythou, Taison Barcellos Freda
PAOK look set to line up in a 4-3-3 formation, consistent with their recent matches. Pavlenka is the clear starter in goal with 14 saves across four appearances. Santamaria anchors the midfield and his combination of ball-winning and goal threat makes him the key man to watch. Zafeiris adds drive from box to box and has chipped in with a goal recently. Živković leads the line with directness and energy, while Taison provides creativity from wider areas. Pantelis Hatzidiakos picked up three yellow cards in three appearances, so his availability and role in this match warrants monitoring.
Brann Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Matias Dyngeland
- DF: Thore Pedersen, Fredrik Knudsen, Joachim Soltvedt, Vetle Winger Dragsnes
- MF: Jacob Lungi Sorensen, Eggert Aron Gudmundsson, Kristian Eriksen
- FW: Niklas Castro, Noah Jean Holm, Kristall Mani Ingason
Brann should set up in their familiar 4-2-3-1 shape, with Dyngeland starting in goal. The defensive line has been consistent, with Pedersen and Soltvedt both featuring in all five recent matches. Soltvedt has even contributed a goal and an assist from the back. Kristian Eriksen is the standout creative force in midfield, with two goals and three assists in his last five appearances. Up front, Castro, Holm, and Ingason have combined for eight goals across those games, making Brann’s attack genuinely dangerous on any given night.
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PAOK. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
PAOK are the right side to back for the win at Toumba, but this match has goals written all over it. Brann’s attacking numbers across the last five games are genuinely impressive, and they have already shown they can overturn deficits at this level. PAOK’s defensive record against quality opposition has been shaky, with four goals conceded to Anderlecht across two legs and three conceded to Twente before that.
We predict PAOK to win 2-1, with both teams finding the net. The combination of PAOK’s home advantage and Brann’s attacking threat makes the Both Teams to Score market the most appealing option. At 1.62, a PAOK win carries limited value, so pairing the home win with BTTS gives a better return for a well-reasoned outcome.
