Levi Rothermund
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Ajax arrive at Tourbillon as heavy favorites for this Conference League Playoffs first leg, and the bookmakers reflect that clearly with a 55% win probability assigned to Míchel Sánchez’s side. Sion are no pushovers at home, though. The Swiss side have been in strong domestic form this summer, and their aggressive, direct attacking approach could make life uncomfortable for Ajax early on. What makes this tie genuinely interesting is that Ajax, for all their quality, have drawn two of their last three matches heading into this fixture — signs that they are not impenetrable.
Two players worth watching closely: Winsley Boteli Mokango has been Sion’s most dangerous attacker in recent weeks, contributing three goals and two assists across the last five matches with 17 shots registered. For Ajax, Julian Brandt has been quietly influential off the bench and in rotation, scoring twice in four appearances while operating with a compact passing range that threads defenses open.
The hot stat from this run of fixtures: Sion beat Kerzers 6-1 in their most recent outing, which inflates their numbers somewhat, but even stripping that result out, they scored eight goals across their previous four matches. That attacking output is not something Ajax can ignore.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27 – Playoffs |
| 🏟 Venue: | Tourbillon, Sion |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:15 CEST |
Sion vs Ajax Prediction
Ajax are the clear pick to win this match. Their squad depth, passing volume (3,009 passes across five matches vs Sion’s 1,874), and shot output (121 to Sion’s 69) all point to a team that controls games systematically. Sion will press and look to hit on the break, but sustaining that against a side with Ajax’s structure is difficult over 90 minutes.
We think Ajax win here, but the margin may not be massive. Sion’s home form has been solid, and their attack is active enough to threaten. An Ajax win with both teams scoring reflects the most honest read of this matchup. The 1X2 market leans heavily toward Ajax, and at odds around 1.68–1.71 across most books, that still represents fair value given the context of a European away tie.
On style: Ajax commit significantly more fouls (53 in five matches) than Sion (33), which suggests they press high and engage physically when out of possession. Sion, with only six yellow cards in five games versus Ajax’s eight, are not a dirty side — they just play direct and get forward quickly. Ajax’s pass accuracy of 91.1% compared to Sion’s 84.4% tells the full story of the technical gap. Sion will need to disrupt Ajax’s rhythm through set pieces and transitions rather than trying to outplay them.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Ajax to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Sion come into this match on the back of a 6-1 demolition of Kerzers, which was a confidence-boosting result even if the opposition was modest. Before that, they beat Noah 2-1 and Vaduz 3-2 in competitive Swiss matches, showing they can win close games. Their last five matches produced 10 goals scored and only a single defeat, which came against Luzern. Coach Didier Tholot has his side playing with a clear attacking identity — they press forward in numbers, and players like Josias Lukembila (three goals in five) and Boteli Mokango give them genuine pace and threat up front. The concern is defensive exposure: three of their last five matches saw them concede, and against Ajax’s quality of movement that becomes a real problem.
Ajax’s recent run is mostly positive, though the last two games before this fixture ended in draws — 2-2 against Heerenveen and 2-2 against Shelbourne. The Shelbourne draw is particularly relevant, as a team ranked far below Ajax managed to hold them twice across the two legs. Sánchez’s side still beat PEC Zwolle 2-0 and Volendam 3-1 in between, so the draw results look more like rotation and squad management than a structural issue. Ajax’s attacking depth is real: Brandt, Marcos Leonardo, Abdellah Ouazane, and Kasper Dolberg all contributed goals in this five-match window. The squad has options across every line, and the 50 corner kicks they generated in five matches underlines how much they dominate territorial play.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have not met in recent competitive history before this playoff tie, so there is no historical head-to-head data to draw from. The table below reflects the aggregated stats from each team’s last five matches as a comparative reference.
| Statistic | Sion | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 10 | 12 |
| Total shots | 69 | 121 |
| Free kicks | 58 | 49 |
| Corner kicks | 18 | 50 |
| Total fouls | 33 | 53 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 84.4% | 91.1% |
| Interceptions | 37 | 40 |
| Offsides | 5 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Sion vs Ajax stats page for more info.
Sion. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Ajax the favourite
- Moneyline Sion 4.00 | Ajax 1.68
- Draw 4.20
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The Ajax odds in the 1.61–1.72 range across bookmakers are consistent with the 55% win probability the market assigns them. Honestly, for a European away tie against a side with genuine attacking teeth, those prices are not generous — but they are fair. Sion at 3.60–4.15 is where the value conversation starts if you believe in a home upset or a draw, which the 22% draw probability makes plausible. The draw odds around 4.20–4.33 offer some value given Ajax’s recent habit of dropping points in away-type contexts. We think Ajax win, but the draw is not a throw-away option here.
Possible Starting Lineups
Sion possible starting eleven
- GK: Anthony Racioppi
- DF: Numa Lavanchy, Jan Kronig, Noé Sow, Marquinhos Cipriano
- MF: Ali Kabacalman, Baltazar Costa Rodrigues de Oliveira, Donat Rrudhani, Franck Surdez
- FW: Winsley Boteli Mokango, Josias Lukembila
Tholot has been consistent with his 4-2-3-1 shape, and this lineup reflects the players with the most minutes and impact across the last five games. Racioppi starts in goal after accumulating the most playing time of any Sion keeper. The back four picks itself based on appearances, with Kronig and Sow as the central pair. Kabacalman and Baltazar provide the double pivot, while Rrudhani — two goals and a yellow card in five matches — adds energy and a goal threat from midfield. Up top, Boteli Mokango and Lukembila combine for six goals between them. Watch Boteli Mokango in particular: his 17 shots in five games make him Sion’s most prolific creator of chances by volume.
Ajax possible starting eleven
- GK: Marc-André ter Stegen
- DF: Anton Gaaei, Youri Baas, Aaron Bouwman, Caio Henrique
- MF: Youri Regeer, Davy Klaassen, Oscar Gloukh, Julian Brandt
- FW: Marcos Leonardo Santos Almeida, Kasper Dolberg
Ajax have rotated their keepers between ter Stegen and Joeri Heerkens, but ter Stegen’s experience in European fixtures makes him the likely starter here. Gaaei and Caio Henrique provide width from fullback, with Baas and Bouwman as the central defensive pair. Regeer is the engine of Ajax’s midfield, logging 350 passes in five matches, while Klaassen provides composure alongside him. Gloukh and Brandt operate in the advanced midfield positions, with Brandt’s two goals from four appearances making him a genuine threat. Marcos Leonardo and Dolberg lead the line. Oscar Gloukh is worth tracking: his 10 shots from a central creative role suggest he is taking on more attacking responsibility, and he could be the player who unlocks Sion’s block.
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Ajax. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Ajax are the better side on paper and in the numbers. Their passing accuracy, shot volume, corner count, and squad depth all point to a team that should control large portions of this match. Sion’s home advantage and attacking directness keep this from being a walkover, and their recent scoring form — 10 goals in five matches — means Ajax’s defense cannot switch off.
We expect Ajax to win this first leg, maybe 2-1, with Sion nicking a goal through a set piece or transition. The “Both Teams to Score — Yes” market and “Over 2.5 Goals” are the bets we back here. Ajax winning and both teams scoring captures the most likely shape of this match given the data we have available.
