Kasimpasa vs Karagumruk Prediction: 16.02.2026 Süper Lig

In the heart of Istanbul at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadı, Kasimpasa face Karagumruk in a Süper Lig regular season clash on 16 February 2026. While both teams sit near the foot of the table, this is more than just a relegation battle: it’s a crucial junction for two sides desperate to reverse their fortunes. With both coaches—Emre Belözoğlu for Kasimpasa and Aleksandar Stanojevic for Karagumruk—known for their tactical nous, this fixture is set up as a fascinating contest between differing football philosophies.

Among the standout players, Fousseni Diabaté’s direct attacking runs and ability to exploit space in transition will be vital for Kasimpasa. On Karagumruk’s side, Serginho’s creative spark and recent goal-scoring record make him the most likely to tip the scales. Keep a close eye on the midfield battle, where control and tempo will dictate the flow.

A hot stat heading into the match: despite scoring just 2 goals in their last 5 outings, Kasimpasa have accumulated a noteworthy 24 corner kicks, showing their preference for wide play and set-piece threats even when their finishing falters.

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Kasimpasa vs Karagumruk prediction

The best value here is a home win for Kasimpasa, but not without caveats. Looking at both teams’ recent forms—Kasimpasa winless in their last four, Karagumruk scraping only one win out of seven—it’s clear neither have momentum. However, Kasimpasa’s home advantage and marginally superior defensive cohesion offer a small edge.

Kasimpasa’s low goal tally, combined with their reliance on set plays (as seen from their corner count and recent pass accuracy of 73%), suggests they will look to control possession and create via wide areas. However, their lack of clinical finishers limits their goal output. Karagumruk, meanwhile, are more direct, with a higher shot count (50 over the last five matches) but they often squander chances, as reflected by their meagre goal conversion. Both sides rack up plenty of fouls—73 for Kasimpasa, 52 for Karagumruk in their last five—indicating a scrappy, hard-fought contest ahead.

Team Analysis

Kasimpasa’s recent games tell a tale of narrow margins but recurring disappointment. Their last match, a 1-2 defeat to Gaziantep, summed up their season: plenty of industry, creativity down the wings, but an absence of cutting edge in front of goal. Prior to that, they fell 0-1 to Samsunspor and 1-2 to a strong Trabzonspor—each contest highlighted their tendency to struggle late in games. Positives? Their discipline at the back remains decent, and set-piece routines are a credible threat when the forwards fire. Their lone draw in this batch was a 0-0 against Antalyaspor, reflecting their limitations in open play.

Karagumruk’s formbook is equally checkered. A 1-0 victory over Antalyaspor is the high point—built on sharp counter-attacking play and disciplined defending. Yet, it’s the exception: prior to that, they suffered defeats against Basaksehir (1-4), Goztepe (1-2), and league-leaders Galatasaray (1-3). They attempt more shots but are often let down by accuracy and a porous defence. Despite displaying resilience, their lack of consistent buildup play and susceptibility to fast transitions leaves them at risk, especially away from home.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Kasimpasa vs Karagumruk stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Kasimpasa the favourite

• Moneyline Kasimpasa 1.91 | Karagumruk 4.20
• Draw 3.50
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.00 | Under 2.5 1.76
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.95 | No 1.80

Kasimpasa are rightly favoured, with bookmakers giving the home side a 50 percent implied win probability versus just 23 percent for Karagumruk. The draw is also in play due to both teams’ ongoing struggles to convert chances into goals. With low average scoring and issues up front for both sides, “under 2.5 goals” and “both teams to score: no” are backed up by both recent stats and the defensive emphasis displayed by both coaches. The hot tip on Asian Handicap also reflects Kasimpasa’s marginal strength at home versus Karagumruk’s weaker away form.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Kasimpasa possible starting eleven

Kasimpasa are likely to stick with their tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 formation that emphasizes structure and width. Gianniotis anchors the backline in goal, while the fullbacks will support wide presses and supply crosses, feeding Diabaté and Gueye. Demirbay’s technical prowess in midfield adds balance as Baldursson covers defensively. Diabaté’s pace and directness, along with Kahveci’s distribution, are the keys to breaking down Karagumruk.

Karagumruk possible starting eleven

Stanojevic’s side should again line up in a 4-2-3-1, balancing defence and transition. Grbić’s shot-stopping will be vital. The defence is reinforced by Esgaio and Biraschi, while Kalayci’s dynamism in midfield and Serginho’s probing runs are crucial for creation. Kone’s presence up front poses an aerial threat. Watch for Serginho—the in-form attacker—to try and disrupt Kasimpasa on the break.

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My take on the Match

Expect a tight, low-scoring match where set pieces and defensive resilience are decisive. While both Kasimpasa and Karagumruk have underperformed this season, Kasimpasa’s more organised defending, home support and effectiveness from corners give them the edge. My main pick is Kasimpasa to win with an Asian Handicap (-0.25), while under 2.5 goals is a logical supporting bet given both teams’ attacking troubles and defensive priorities.

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