Sofia Quijada
Spain arrive in Bergen having already dismantled England 4-0 in their most recent group fixture, while Iceland have scraped together just 6 points from five games, with all three defeats coming against Spain and England. The two sides met once before in this qualification cycle, back in March, with Spain winning 3-0 in a match where the bookmakers already pegged Spain as heavy 88% favourites. That figure has now climbed to 83% on average, reflecting Spain’s near-flawless group campaign.
The player to watch for Spain is Alexia Putellas, who scored twice in the last match and leads the team’s creative output from midfield. On the Iceland side, Sandra Jessen is worth tracking as the only outfield player to register an assist in their most recent outing, showing she can contribute in transition even against superior opposition.
Hot stat: Spain have scored 15 goals in 5 group games while conceding just 2, giving them a goal difference of +13. Iceland, by contrast, have scored only 2 goals all campaign, both coming against bottom side Ukraine.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Women’s World Cup Qualification UEFA 2026, League A Group C |
| 🏟 Venue: | Brann Stadion, Bergen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 09.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Iceland (W) vs Spain (W) Prediction
Spain are the clear selection here. They are top of Group C with 12 points, identical to England but with a far superior goal difference of +13. Their 4-0 win over England in the final group round before this match confirms they are peaking at the right time. Iceland have lost to Spain once already this campaign without scoring, and their only wins came against Ukraine, the group’s weakest team with zero points from five games.
Spain’s pass accuracy in their last match stands at 563 completed passes versus Iceland’s 193, a ratio that illustrates the complete disparity in ball control. Spain average 21 shots per game in this data window compared to Iceland’s 16, and Spain are generating those numbers against better opponents. Iceland commit 11 fouls per game, suggesting they defend under pressure with a physical approach, but that tends to invite set pieces against a team as technically gifted as Spain.
Iceland’s disciplinary record is also notable: 4 yellow cards in their last recorded match compared to Spain’s 0. That aggression may lead to free kick opportunities for Spain in dangerous areas. We predict Spain to win comfortably and for goals to flow in one direction.
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | Spain Win to Nil |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 5.5 |
Team Analysis
Iceland’s five-game group campaign has been a tale of two opponents. Both wins came against Ukraine, with narrow 1-0 scorelines each time. Against England, they lost 0-1 and 0-2, and against Spain in the reverse fixture they were beaten 0-3. Their most recent match, a 1-0 win over Ukraine on the final matchday before this one, showed modest improvement in organisation, but the quality jump they now face is significant. Their pass volume of 308 in that game against a low-ranked Ukraine side (opponent rating 4240) suggests they will struggle to maintain any meaningful possession against Spain’s press.
Spain’s last match was a commanding 4-0 victory over England, a result that effectively sealed top spot in Group C. Alexia Putellas scored twice, Patricia Guijarro added a goal, and Claudia Pina came off the bench to contribute. Mariona Caldentey was outstanding with 2 assists and 79 passes at 71 completed, dominating the left channel. Spain’s 21 shots and 627 total passes in that match against a team rated at 17934 underscores how dominant they are at this level. Their form reads W-W-W-W-W-D-W-W-D-W-W-W-L-W-W across recent matches, with the single loss coming against England in the reverse fixture.
🚨 Check out our dedicated Iceland (W) vs Spain (W) stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Spain (W) the Favourite
- Moneyline Iceland (W) 14.00–18.00 | Spain (W) 1.07–1.08
- Draw 7.80–8.25
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (Both Teams to Score) Yes N/A | No N/A
Spain at 1.07–1.08 is as short as it gets in women’s football at this level, and to be honest, the price reflects reality. The bookmakers give Iceland just a 6% chance of winning, and given the head-to-head, the standings, and the raw performance data, that number feels generous. Iceland at 14.00–18.00 carries no real value here. The draw at 7.80–8.25 is equally unattractive. If there is any angle, it is on Spain’s margin of victory or a Spain clean sheet, both of which align with their defensive record of just 2 goals conceded across the entire group stage.
Possible Starting Lineups
Iceland (W) Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Cecilía Rán Rúnarsdóttir
- DF: Glódís Perla Viggósdóttir, Gudrun Arnardottir, Ingibjörg Sigurðardóttir
- MF: Alexandra Jóhannsdóttir, Hildur Antonsdottir, Saedis Heidarsdottir, Lea Karolina Vihjalmsdottir, Katla Tryggvadottir
- FW: Sandra Jessen, Hlin Eiriksdottir
Iceland are expected to line up in their familiar 4-3-3 shape, though the attacking third may be reshaped into a narrow 4-5-1 when out of possession to limit Spain’s central creativity. Cecilía Rán Rúnarsdóttir earned 3 saves in the previous match and will be tested far more heavily here. Sandra Jessen’s ability to hold the ball and link play up front is Iceland’s best outlet on the counter. Coach Þorsteinn Halldórsson will likely prioritise shape and compactness over pressing high.
Spain (W) Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Catalina Coll
- DF: Irene Paredes Hernandez, Ona Batlle, Olga Carmona Garcia, María Méndez
- MF: Aitana Bonmati, Patricia Guijarro, Mariona Caldentey, Salma Paralluelo, Vicky López
- FW: Alexia Putellas
Spain’s 4-2-3-1 has been the platform for their dominant campaign. Sonia Bermúdez may rotate given the group is already decided for Spain, but the squad depth means quality remains high regardless. Aitana Bonmati and Alexia Putellas form a central midfield axis that Iceland simply do not have the personnel to contain. Mariona Caldentey’s 79 passes and 2 assists in the last match make her the most dangerous creator in the system. Claudia Pina, used as an impact substitute against England, could start or feature early here.
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Spain (W). Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Spain are the dominant force in this group and have already beaten Iceland 3-0 in the reverse fixture. Their attacking output across five games, 15 goals scored and only 2 conceded, combined with a pass accuracy ratio that dwarfs Iceland’s, points firmly to another comfortable Spanish win. Iceland have not scored a single goal against either of the group’s top two sides, and their only goals came in narrow wins over the group’s bottom team.
We predict Spain to win this match convincingly, with a clean sheet. The most logical betting position is Spain Win to Nil, supported by Over 2.5 goals and BTTS No. Spain’s ability to press high and recycle possession at pace will suffocate Iceland’s limited build-up, and their set piece threat adds another avenue for goals given Iceland’s tendency to foul.
