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ESL Pro League: A Deep Group-D Recap

04.04.2022, 23:40

March has come to an end, and take or leave a few days, but so is ESL Pro League’s Group Stage. The month-long affair has come to an end, and we have shortlisted the 12 best CS:GO teams on this planet.

Season 15Germany, Düsseldorf, Merkur Spiel-Arena
$823,000Prize Pool
24Teams
PremierTier
FaZe Clan
Winner
ENCE
2nd Place
Ninjas in Pyjamas
3rd Place

Group D has given us another 5-0 team; a “true” one this time. Natus Vincere has gone undefeated in all five matches played, despite the absence of Boomb14 in three of those matches.

I had predicted that since every group had some unexpected results, this one will have too. I Nostradamused that Astralis would be the one to miss out on the Playoffs, and one of COL and EG would take that golden place.

Ah well, nothing of the sort happened (Though COL did come close).

You know, sometimes the unpredictability lies in the occurrence of the predictable.

Group D was fun, but bland, in a sense. The main storylines were the recurring problems amongst some of the top teams, and of course, the failure of North America. Why? Here is how the group looks:

  1. NaVi
  2. Heroic
  3. Astralis
  4. AGO
  5. Complexity
  6. Evil Geniuses

NaVi seems to have returned to their late 2021 selves and cut through all teams in the group to secure an inspiring 5-0 win, and of course, a Quarterfinal place. Heroic and Astralis have qualified too, and Astralis are the lucky ones since they have the easiest way to the semifinals. They’ll probably meet NaVi there, though, so I’m reconsidering how lucky they are after all.

Well, Group D has come to an end, and here’s what happened!

The Key Matches

There were 15 matches played. But not all had the same effect on the group standings. It’s natural to think that the final two rounds would be the most important, and you’d be right for Group D. But that’s not a hard and fast rule. For example, the two most important matches of Group C were played in Round 1 and Round 2. All you need is a little insight.

Coming back to Group D, these are some of the crunch-time, key matches that defined the group as it turned out.

Astralis vs NaVi

13:58Finished02.04.2022
1AstralisDenmark

This match was played in Round 4. Astralis were 2-1 up, and NaVi 3-0. The pressure was on Astralis to play and win because NaVi had practically qualified already. As we will discuss in-depth later, Astralis’ T sides were a thorn in their side from the start of the group to the end.

The match started with NaVi dominantly winning on Astralis’ pick of Ancient, 16-4. cadiaN was co-casting the map with Sadokist and moses (pardon if my memory betrays me) and gave us useful tactical insights, fresh from the brain of an IGL.

NaVi just had such confidence. Their proactiveness in defense, even in unfavorable situations, was a treat to watch. This confidence was reflected in the head-to-head duels, as every NaVi player dominated every other Astralis player. BoombLA, as gla1ve would say it, made some beautiful calls. Astralis were being flanked and backstabbed all map; so many times just after a bombplant.

s1mple and electronic were at their prime as well. s1mple had 4.20 KDR. Crazy number, whatever lens you choose to look at it from.

Astralis had to recover quickly, as Nuke was the map lined up next. Astralis won it 16-14, with s1mple’s 31 kill performance being trumped by blameF’s 32. Things were complicated here, and I won’t pretend that I understood the tactics and the games being played.

So it’s safe to say that Astralis and gla1ve were quite prepared for this matchup. The tactical depth of the map clearly made NaVi uncomfortable, especially after that 16-4 battering, after which they may have thought that Astralis would be a pushover.

Well, it was an inspiring result for the Danes.

The final map was Inferno, and that’s where Astralis’ T side deficiencies truly showed up. The Danes rushed to an 8-0, and then 11-4 CT-sided lead. Astralis seemed like they had cracked this Ukrainian case open, but out of the 15 available, Astralis simply couldn’t get those 5 T-sided rounds.

NaVi made the insane comeback and won the map 16-13. Out of the 14 rounds played, Astralis planted the bomb only twice. It was a disaster, and their lifeless attacks had come back to bite them in their grass. Big Boom’s lovely rotations made it hell for Astralis to do anything.

And of course, there was the s1mple factor.

Win or lose, comeback or domination, outsmart or be outsmarted, one thing will never change. When s1mple wants to play, there’s literally no stopping him. 81 kills and 96 ADR over 3 maps. The numbers he posts so regularly make no sense to a sane mind. What a pain in the glass for data analysts; he stretches the boundaries so much so often.

Believe it or not, s1mple will be gone one day. It’s best that we lay aside the competitiveness sometimes and just appreciate the CS:GO GOAT.

Astralis vs COL

13:31Finished03.04.2022
2AstralisDenmark
1Complexity GamingUnited States

This was the final match, and the winner would qualify for the Playoffs. Despite having a disastrous group stage, Complexity still had some life in them in Group D.

They started the match wonderfully, rattling the Danish spirits early on. But they did it off the back of a relatively poor defense from Astralis.

As I mentioned earlier and will talk about again, Astralis’ results were deeply linked with how well they did on their CT side. Even an average defense meant they’ll most probably lose the match, because their T side simply cannot hold up against these teams.

Against COL, they had an 8-7 CT-sided lead after the first half. Not bad in theory, but in reality, that meant winning 8 rounds on T side, something Astralis failed to do. Even against COL. They lost Dust 2 16-13, and were just one map loss away from a humiliating elimination.

Thankfully for them, that didn’t happen. They posted 7 T rounds in the first half of Nuke, and that set them up for a sweet 16-10 victory. Similarly, they won the defensive first half of the decider map 9-6, and had a fair advantage. Usually, you’d expect them to close it easily, but again, it went the distance, 16-14, but they got it in the end.

A comeback forced. A disaster averted. Live to fight another day.

NaVi vs Heroic

13:32Finished03.04.2022
0HeroicEurope

Ooh, this was easily the most anticipated matchup of the group. What better way to play it than to do it in the last round when both teams are 4-0 and the winner takes a Quarterfinal seat.

You can argue that Heroic were one of the only real threats to NaVi ever since LAN started. Their matchups are always very close and very intense. It’s fun and unnerving to watch.

This time, though, it was a slaughter; a complete domination and humiliation.

NaVi won 16-7 and 16-5. You can’t even blame Heroic; NaVi were playing on another level.

With Boomb14 back, and off-server issues set aside, this NaVi is the one everyone’s quaking their boots for all these months. Maybe they thought that NaVi is waning, but this match showed us that Blad3 and co. are 100% serious about creating an era, no matter what happens.

As to the match, it’s hard to say what Heroic did wrong. They were being suffocated a lot, and they were just tactically outclassed. NaVi always have the advantage. Even when they’re a man down, they choke the other team to submission, to defeat.

Natus Vincere is ba- wait here’s an in-depth NaVi section.

NaVi‘s Perfect Run

Natus VincereEurope
7651981
Tips
3Win streak
78%30 d. winrate
67%Winrate

Yeah so, as I was saying, Natus Vincere is officially back. After an understandably poor Katowice performance, the tides have changed in the CIS camp. The outside problems still persist, but these professionals have had time to deal with the new normal. And as we saw from Gambit, they definitely have dealt with it well.

Their only problem here in the Group Stage was Boomb14’s absence for the first three matches. He was sidelined because of our dear friend, covid. NaVi Junior’s headtr1ck replaced him in the interim.

A recurring problem for the Ukrainian-Russian mix was the fact that they’d perform great in the first map, but rather poorly on the second. They were unable to transfer that momentum into the second, that is until they got comfortable with Big Boom again (that is, the final match of the group.)

Their first match was against AGO and it demonstrated the tendency I mentioned above most radically. Why? Because they had the quickest ever affair in their first map (16-1 win) and a historically long one in their second map (37-34; 71 rounds played.)

It took them 7 overtimes to decide a winner on Mirage, and though the Polish side lost, they definitely sent a message to others in the group.

NaVi’s second match was against EG. They won the opening match 16-2. They carried that momentum into the first half of Dust 2, which they won 11-4. The final half of the game was less one-sided though. EG did penetrate the NaVi defense, but it wasn’t nearly enough to birth a comeback.

Overall, these were pretty good signs from NaVi. headtr1ck was playing fairly well, and the whole team was clicking together.

The third map would be headtr1ck’s final map, as Boomb14 was scheduled to return for the final two matches. Against COL, NaVi would nail the first halves of both maps. They won both 12-3, once on T side and once on the CT. But they struggled in the second halves, losing both 4-10 and 4-11. Again, it didn’t really matter as they had already won the maps in the first halves.

The absence of their IGL was clear as day.

The final two maps were against Astralis and Heroic… and Boomb14 had returned.

The end is pretty anti-climactic since we’ve already discussed the two NaVi matches.

After that performance against Heroic where NaVi not only showed their tactical prowess but also their mental toughness, I’m sure Katowice is a story long-forgotten for everyone and NaVi is on course to defend their ESL Pro League crown.

The New Astralis

AstralisDenmark
9551285
Tips
1Lose streak
43%30 d. winrate
58%Winrate

I’m sure you noticed a certain Farlig replacing Lucky in what I hope is the final five-man roster of Astralis. Another important change was trace replacing ave as the coach. Farlig has arrived in the Danish camp after inactivity in the FunPlus Pheonix roster. ave and trace on the other hand have switched places as the coaches of the main team and the academy team.

This change comes off the back of that Lucky-gla1ve rifle-AWP disaster. Though Astralis had to fight till the last breath to qualify for the Playoffs, Farlig easily makes much more sense than Lucky AWPing or god forbid, gla1ve AWPing. His dynamic style is a treat to watch on the CT side. gla1ve is pretty good and comfortable with the rifle as well.

After Lucky, es3tag, and Bubzkji (remember him? I’ll be rolling out an article on him, stay tuned.) experiments, Astralis have finally reached the perfect 5. BlameF and k0nfig, Xyp and gla1ve, and the AWPer in Farlig: Astralis have reached the formula to secure their present. They also have laid the seeds of their future, with BlameF destined to take over from gla1ve as the IGL, much like Boomb14 took over from Zeus (and we all know how that turned out in 2021).

If I have made you optimistic and hopeful, that’s good. That’s the correct buildup to break a heart.

Astralis’ T sides are some of the worst I’ve seen amongst Tier One teams in recent times. They are so bland and devoid of ideas… it’s painful to watch. Astralis could’ve closed the game against NaVi on the decider map and probably would’ve won against Heroic too had it not been for their disastrous T sides. This theme will recur in every Astralis match we’ll discuss from here.

Against EG, Astralis won 2-0 thanks to their 11-4 and 7-2 CT sides. They also got a 9-6 T side in the second map but is that really celebration-worthy against possibly one of the weakest “big teams” we’ve seen in NA history?

That result was more of a warmup, given EG’s form. The true test was against Heroic in the second round. It started wonderfully, with Astralis taking an 8-7 T side lead on Ancient, a CT-sided map. Astralis went on to close the map by winning it 16-12.

They took a 10-5 lead CT-sided lead on the second map and even pushed it to 15-7. They were just one T-side round away from 2-0ing Heroic, but they choked pretty damn hard. They did get their 16th round, but it was barely smiles since it was overtime, which they ended up losing.

The third map went one further than the second. Heroic won on Vertigo in the second overtime, and Astralis went from being one round away from victory to a 2-1 defeat.

The next match was again kinda a warmup to the NaVi match in the fourth round. AGO wouldn’t be a rollover, though. They created Tier One history in the first round when they took NaVi to 71 rounds on Mirage. They followed that up by defeating COL in the second round.

Astralis started the match well against AGO. 11-4 first half on Mirage, the first map. Then their poor T side shone again, as they lost the second half 5-9. Regardless, it was a win for Astralis. The second map reinforced Astralis’ defensive capabilities, as they won on Nuke thanks to a 9-1 second half.

The two following maps were the most important, of course. We’ve discussed both in the previous section, and you can reconfirm how costly the poor T sides have been for Astralis. Regardless, they did manage to reach the Playoffs, a feat in itself, one that shouldn’t get lost in a wave of criticism.

They have one month before the Major starts. Let’s see if they can muster up some heavy stacks of strats before they head to Antwerp. Because with this form, Astralis will be lucky to get out of the Group Stages.

Checking up on NA

There were a lot of things said, a lot of predictions made. The NA scene had a historic breakup in the winter, and the Liquid monopoly in the region was broken after some key stars left for newer teams.

Despite that, Team Liquid remains the best NA team. That’s not an argument. But who is Number 2? Complexity? That’s the obvious choice, but some of their showings in Group D make me say there is no Number 2. The difference between Liquid and Complexity retches up this weird statement: Liquid is Number 1 and Complexity is Number 3. No one deserves that Number 2.

There were a total of 4 NA teams in this tournament. So how did the four strongest teams of a whole continent fair against the rest of the world?

Well, I talked at length about Team Liquid’s matches in my Group C article.

I boldly said how mediocre Liquid is, but after seeing what EG and COL did in Group D, I think I might retract my words. Liquid has faired okayish after that split, I guess. We may not know where they truly stand until the Major comes along, though. This is because their very first Playoffs match here is against Heroic.

Any team after Liquid is just too shambolic and messed up to talk about. COL went 1-4 in Group D, and the only team they could beat is another fellow NA team.

Complexity GamingUnited States
639644
Tips
4Lose streak
33%30 d. winrate
52%Winrate

To not be able to defeat a single team on the other side of the ocean is embarrassing, to say the least. Thankfully, all matches were pretty close. No offense to junior, but only if COL can find a consistent AWPer who posts 1.00 rating, they can truly become Number 2 in NA and start to evolve.

EG and Party Astronauts both went 0-5. What do I even say about EG. I’m inclined to think that even PA is better than them.

Evil GeniusesUnited States
407303
Tips
1Lose streak
-30 d. winrate
46%Winrate

Liquid and Complexity are the only true threats from the continent. Make some changes in COL, and both of these teams can become Playoffs-worthy in every top tier tournament they compete in.

Let’s hope that day comes sooner than later.

Well, with that, I conclude the month-long Group Stage of ESL Pro League Season 15. If you’re still reading, thank you for following along; it’s been a pleasure. I’ll see you guys soon with the Playoffs articles.

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