Liam Duckstein
Croatia host their Balkan neighbors Slovenia at Stadion Anđelko Herjavec in Varaždin on June 7, 2026, in what looks like a comfortable home fixture on paper. The Vatreni enter the match under Zlatko Dalić having lost their last outing 0-2 to Belgium, while Bošstjan Cesar’s Slovenia managed a 1-1 draw with Cyprus most recently. Both sides carry identical year-to-date win rates of 33%, so the gap in quality may be less dramatic in practice than the bookmakers’ 70% home win probability suggests.
Luka Modrić, still pulling strings from midfield despite his age, remains the creative engine for Croatia. His 42 passes in just 58 minutes against Belgium showed his involvement even in a losing effort. For Slovenia, Jan Oblak between the sticks is the one player capable of keeping this match tight on his own, and if Croatia struggle to find their rhythm early, the Atletico Madrid goalkeeper could be a decisive figure.
Hot stat: Slovenia racked up 14 total shots and 11 corner kicks in their last match against Cyprus, which is a notably aggressive attacking output for a side that drew 1-1. Croatia, by contrast, managed just 4 shots and 3 corners in their 0-2 defeat to Belgium, suggesting a significant dip in attacking output for the home side in their most recent game.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Friendly 2026, June |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Anđelko Herjavec, Varaždin |
| 🗓️ Date: | 07.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Croatia vs Slovenia Prediction
Croatia are heavy favorites and, at home, they should be expected to control the match. Their 3-4-2-1 system under Dalić gives them width and defensive solidity, and when players like Mateo Kovačić and Modrić are both fit and available, the midfield tends to dominate possession against lower-ranked opposition. Slovenia’s 3-4-2-1 mirrors Croatia structurally, which could lead to a cagey opening period.
We predict a Croatia win, but the margin may be slim. Slovenia are not a side that collapses easily. Their recent draw with Cyprus and wins over Montenegro and Hungary show a team capable of staying competitive. Oblak alone makes them difficult to break down, and Cesar’s side tends to stay organized defensively. A 1-0 or 2-0 Croatia win is the most likely outcome, and we lean toward the Croatia win with under 3.5 goals as the best value play here.
Croatia committed 13 fouls in their last match and picked up 2 yellow cards, indicating a degree of physical engagement that could disrupt Slovenia’s build-up play. Slovenia, interestingly, recorded zero fouls and zero yellow cards in their most recent game, suggesting a disciplined, controlled approach. With both teams using three-man defensive lines, set pieces and transitions will matter more than open play dominance.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Croatia Win to Nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Croatia’s recent form is a mixed picture. Wins over Montenegro (3-2) and Faroe Islands (3-1) earlier in the year showed the Vatreni can be clinical against lower-ranked opposition. The loss to Colombia (2-1 defeat, though they did win that one) and the 1-3 reverse against Brazil showed vulnerability against top-tier pressure. The 0-2 loss to Belgium was the most recent game and the most concerning, with Croatia mustering just 4 shots across the entire match. Dalić will need a sharper performance here.
Slovenia’s last five games tell a more inconsistent story. A 3-2 win over Montenegro was impressive, but losses to Kosovo (0-2) and Hungary (0-1), plus a draw with Sweden (1-1), show a team that can struggle against organized defenses. The 1-1 draw with Cyprus in their most recent outing was not a bad result, but it was not exactly a confidence-booster either. Cesar’s side will need to be compact and disciplined to take anything from this match.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
The available head-to-head data from this fixture cycle shows a 0-0 scoreline in the most recent encounter between these two sides in the International Friendly 2026 June phase, which aligns with expectations of a tight Balkan derby. The statistics below reflect that match.
| Statistic | Croatia | Slovenia |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 4 | 14 |
| Corner kicks | 3 | 11 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Croatia vs Slovenia stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Croatia the Favourite
- Moneyline Croatia 1.33 | Slovenia 8.60
- Draw 4.60
The odds across bookmakers are fairly consistent, with Croatia priced between 1.18 and 1.36. The Pinnacle line of 1.32 is worth treating as the sharpest benchmark. Slovenia at 8.00 to 9.90 reflects how unlikely an upset is considered, and to be honest, those odds are fair given the quality gap. The draw at around 4.60 to 5.05 is where some value might hide if you believe Oblak can keep Slovenia in the match long enough for a point. We do not recommend the draw, but it is not an unreasonable speculative play for those who like higher odds.
Possible Starting Lineups
Croatia Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Dominik Livaković
- DF: Josip Šutalo, Joško Gvardiol, Marin Pongračić
- MF: Josip Stanišić, Mateo Kovačić, Luka Modrić, Petar Sučić
- FW: Martin Baturina, Ivan Perišić, Ante Budimir
Dalić is expected to set up in his preferred 3-4-2-1 shape, with Livaković starting in goal after making two saves against Belgium. Gvardiol and Šutalo anchor the back three alongside Pongračić. Kovačić and Modrić form the double pivot, and their experience will be key in dictating tempo. Petar Sučić and Baturina provide energy in the wider roles, with Perišić and Budimir the attacking threat up front. Budimir is the one to watch as the focal point of Croatia’s pressing and hold-up play.
Slovenia Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Jan Oblak
- DF: Jaka Bijol, Erik Janža, David Brekalo
- MF: Adam Gnezda Čerin, Sandi Lovrić, Danijel Sturm, Žan Karničnik
- FW: Zan Vipotnik, Andraž Šporar, Tamar Svetlin
Cesar is likely to mirror Croatia’s 3-4-2-1 structure. Oblak is the unquestioned starter and the most important player on the pitch for Slovenia. Bijol leads the defensive line and has the experience to organize the unit against Croatia’s forwards. Gnezda Čerin and Sturm cover ground in midfield, while Vipotnik leads the line as the main striker. Šporar provides a direct threat off the bench or in a rotated role. Slovenia’s ability to stay compact and use Oblak’s distribution to launch counters will define their approach.
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Slovenia. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Croatia should win this match at home in Varaždin. The quality difference between the squads is real, and players like Modrić, Kovačić, and Gvardiol give the Vatreni a clear edge across the pitch. That said, Slovenia are not a pushover. Their defensive shape under Cesar is organized, and Oblak has the ability to frustrate even the best attacks on a given night.
We predict a Croatia win with under 2.5 goals as the most likely scenario. The head-to-head data from their recent encounter produced a 0-0, and both teams have shown they can be conservative when the stakes are low. Croatia to win to nil at odds around 2.00 to 2.20 across most books is perhaps the best single-market play here. The corner market is also worth a look, given Slovenia’s 11 corners in their last game and Croatia’s tendency to push wide through their wing-backs.
