Bohemians vs St. Patricks Prediction: 26.06.2026 League of Ireland Premier Division

Two of the top three sides in the League of Ireland Premier Division meet at Dalymount Park on Friday night, and the gap between them is razor thin. Bohemians sit second with 37 points from 21 games, St. Patricks are third with 35 from 20 — meaning a win for the visitors would pull them level and put serious pressure on Alan Reynolds’ side heading into the second half of the season. The teams met earlier this campaign back in April, and St. Patricks ran out 3-1 winners, so Bohemians have a score to settle on their own ground.

Two players stand out heading into this fixture. For Bohemians, Harry Patrick Vaughan has been quietly excellent across his recent appearances, contributing 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 matches with 210 minutes on the pitch — a strong return for a midfielder. For St. Patricks, Joe Redmond at the back is more than just a defensive presence; the centre-back has chipped in with a goal, drawn 2 yellow cards, and registered 8 fouls in 270 minutes, showing just how aggressive and involved he is in everything Stephen Kenny’s team does.

Hot stat: St. Patricks have registered 77 total shots across their last 5 matches compared to Bohemians’ 43, nearly double the output — yet they’ve scored only 4 goals to Bohemians’ 7. That finishing efficiency gap is striking, and it tells you something real about how these two teams convert their chances.

Bohemians vs St. Patricks Prediction

This is a genuinely difficult match to call. The bookmakers essentially have this as a coin flip, with Bohemians edging the home advantage at around 36% implied probability against St. Patricks’ 35%. The draw at 29% is not to be dismissed either — three of the last eight head-to-head meetings ended level, including the second encounter last season.

Bohemians’ form in the last 30 days has been better, winning 2 of 3 with a loss sandwiched in between. St. Patricks have been slightly more inconsistent with a draw thrown in, though their season-long win rate of 58% is actually higher than Bohemians’ 46%. St. Patricks also carry a better goal difference in the standings (15 vs 11), which matters when you look at the bigger picture of where these clubs are heading.

The earlier meeting this season where St. Patricks won 3-1 at Dalymount is hard to ignore. Bohemians will be motivated, but Stephen Kenny’s side have been defensively tighter recently — back-to-back clean sheets against Sligo Rovers and Drogheda. We think the most likely outcome is a competitive, low-scoring match, and St. Patricks have enough quality to claim at least a point away from home.

Bohemians commit fouls regularly (35 in 5 matches) and St. Patricks are even more aggressive at 37. With both teams pressing and scrapping in a derby-style atmosphere, yellow cards will come. The foul count also suggests set pieces will be frequent — Bohemians have 39 free kicks in their last 5 games, which creates additional danger from dead-ball situations given their better conversion efficiency.

• Main Prediction: St. Patricks to win or draw (Double Chance X2) — St. Patricks have the better season form, a stronger goal difference, and won the reverse fixture convincingly.
• Under 2.5 Goals — four of the last six head-to-head meetings produced two goals or fewer, and both teams have been defensively solid in recent weeks.
• Over 3.5 Corners — St. Patricks average over 6 corners per match in their last 5 games (32 total), and Bohemians add 23 on their end. Corners will be plentiful.

Team Analysis

Bohemians have been in decent nick lately. Their most recent match — a 3-0 win over Shelbourne — was probably their best performance in weeks, and before that they beat Sligo Rovers 3-1, showing they can score freely against mid-table opposition. The 1-4 loss to Derry City in between is the outlier, though Derry have been one of the more awkward teams to face this season despite sitting fifth. Over five matches, Bohemians have scored 7 goals, which is a solid return, and Colm Whelan up front has been directly involved in goals with 2 strikes and 2 assists. The team’s pass accuracy of 1218 out of 1474 attempts is reasonable, though not outstanding — they’re direct without being reckless. Dawson Devoy in midfield is worth watching, with 9 shots and 217 passes across 3 games suggesting he sees a lot of the ball and is willing to take risks going forward.

St. Patricks have gone unbeaten in their last two — 2-0 wins over Sligo Rovers and Drogheda — but the match before that, a 0-1 home loss to Shamrock Rovers, showed they still struggle against the very best. The 0-0 draw with Derry City earlier and the 0-1 loss to Shelbourne reveal a team that can be shutout on their day. What’s interesting is the volume of shots St. Patricks generate: 77 across 5 matches is enormous, but with only 4 goals to show for it, Danny Rogers’ teammates in front of goal have been wasteful. Aidan Keena and Ryan Edmondson have both taken 12 shots each in recent matches without scoring — that’s a problem that could come back to haunt them. Kian Leavy has been one of the brighter sparks with a goal and consistent involvement from midfield, and Christopher Forrester, despite limited minutes, has scored once in 20 minutes of action which is the kind of impact that can change a game off the bench.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Bohemians vs St. Patricks stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: A Near-Even Contest

• Moneyline Bohemians 2.62 | St. Patricks 2.55
• Draw 3.10
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.00 | Under 2.5 1.80
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.10 | No 1.70

The moneyline odds reflect just how tight this fixture is expected to be. Pinnacle, generally the sharpest book in the market, has Bohemians at 2.70 and St. Patricks at 2.68 — essentially no edge either way. Duelbits is the clear outlier with St. Patricks priced at 2.80, which looks like a soft line given the visitors’ season form and their head-to-head record. The draw at 3.10-3.21 is fair given the history between these sides. We think the BTTS No market at around 1.70 is reasonable value given St. Patricks’ recent clean sheets and Bohemians’ tendency to keep things tight at Dalymount.

Possible Starting Lineups

Bohemians Possible Starting Eleven

Alan Reynolds has been favouring a 3-4-2-1 shape, and this selection reflects that structure with Whelan as the lone striker supported by Vaughan and Tierney in the two behind him. Darragh Power offers width and energy from a wing-back position, while Dawson Devoy is the engine in the middle with the most passes and shots of any Bohemians midfielder in recent games. Paul Walters gets the nod in goal ahead of Kacper Chorazka based on more appearances and a higher save count. Ross Tierney is the player to watch — 1 goal, 1 assist, and 8 free kicks taken in 3 matches suggests he’s a set-piece threat as well as an open-play contributor.

St. Patricks Possible Starting Eleven

Stephen Kenny has been working with a 4-2-3-1 setup, and this lineup fits that mold. Danny Rogers is the clear first choice in goal with 7 saves across 3 matches. The back four picks itself — Sean Hoare and Joe Redmond have both played every minute of the last 5 games and are the spine of the defence. Jamie Lennon is the most industrious midfielder with 5 shots, 4 interceptions, and 145 passes, making him the fulcrum of everything St. Patricks do in the middle of the pitch. Zachary Elbouzedi is worth watching as a forward with a goal and genuine pace, while Aidan Keena’s shot volume (12 in recent games) means he’s always a threat even if his conversion rate has been poor lately.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Honestly, this one could go either way on paper, but the numbers lean toward St. Patricks when you look beyond the surface. They have a better season win rate, a stronger goal difference, and they’ve already beaten Bohemians at Dalymount this year. Their last two results — back-to-back clean sheets — suggest the defensive organisation is there even if the forwards are misfiring in front of goal. Bohemians at home are dangerous, Whelan and Vaughan have been in form, and Dalymount is not an easy place to come and take points. We think this ends 1-1 or St. Patricks nick it 1-0, and the Double Chance X2 is the safest play at around 1.55-1.60. Under 2.5 goals fits the head-to-head history and both teams’ recent defensive solidity. The corner market is where we see the clearest value — with St. Patricks generating 32 corners in 5 games and Bohemians adding 23, getting over 8.5 at reasonable odds looks like a smart play for the right books.

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