Immediately after the Champions League playoff participants are decided, we will learn all the participants for the next round of the UEFA Europa League. Only eight teams out of 36 lack tournament motivation, so fierce battles should be expected in almost every game. The traditional digest from the TipsGG analytical team will help you navigate what to pay special attention to.
Crvena Zvezda Belgrade vs Celta Vigo
The Serbian championship has been on a winter break, so Dejan Stanković’s team maintained match fitness through friendly encounters. Sparring results are not necessarily indicative, but the last official match against Malmö highlighted two trends: the team retains its winning character even after a layoff, but the Serbians’ playing condition is far from peak, as evidenced by an extremely difficult victory over a clear underdog. The 13 points in the table stimulate the Belgrade side to fight for direct qualification to the Round of 16.
The Spanish club gained great momentum, securing four consecutive wins until their last away trip to San Sebastián, where the “Sky Blues” lost to Real Sociedad (1:3). In the league, Celta is in a tense race for the European zone, tied on points with Betis, who currently round out the top six. In the Europa League, the Vigo side trails today’s opponents by one point and maintains mathematical chances of reaching the top 8. However, counting on both an away win over a strong opponent and a favorable combination of results in parallel matches would be reckless on their part.
Taking into account the Spaniards’ exhausting struggle on two fronts, their tight schedule, and the higher motivation of the hosts, Crvena Zvezda has a better chance of success. However, a “dry” draw should not be ruled out either.
- Match Bet: Crvena Zvezda Double Chance (1X) + Total Under 4.5 (Odds: 1.63).
Basel vs Viktoria Plzeň
At St. Jakob-Park, Basel – who needs exclusively a victory to maintain their chances of advancing – will host Viktoria Plzeň, one of only three teams in the league stage that remains undefeated.
In previous rounds, Basel secured two victories: one somewhat unexpected win over Stuttgart (2:0) and another quite logical one over Steaua (3:1) against an opponent that played with a man down from the first half. At the same time, the “Red-Blues” are on a six-match winless streak at home across all competitions. Notably, in the Swiss Super League, the team demonstrates better results specifically on the road – 20 points away compared to 16 at home (though one home match remains to level the game count).
Viktoria, despite being undefeated, sits in 17th position rather than the top 8, unlike Freiburg and Ferencváros. The reason is obvious: the Plzeň side has won only two matches, while the rest ended in draws – only two of which saw both teams score. Effectively, a draw in this meeting will be enough for the “Victorians” to guarantee a spot in the top 24.
Despite the visitors’ personnel losses – a number of injured players and the suspension of captain Matěj Vydra – the team from Plzeň looks fully capable of fulfilling the minimum task and avoiding defeat. Previously, Viktoria has successfully contained attacks from opponents of much higher status than the current Basel. That is why it is logical to play an optional cautious scenario.
- Match Bet: Viktoria Plzeň Double Chance (2X) + Total Under 4.5 (Odds: 2.08)
Real Betis vs Feyenoord
Real Betis approaches the decisive round in the Europa League following two defeats. For Pellegrini’s team, this is quite uncharacteristic, as only four giants had managed to upset the Verdiblancos throughout the season, but the harsh reality of an excessive number of injuries is making its impact.
Feyenoord feels slightly better in terms of functional readiness but performs too inconsistently. For a potential playoff spot, the Rotterdam side needs a very complex scenario, which includes at least a victory in this match and, at most, favorable parallel results from other clubs competing for the top 24.
Another key factor is the number of losses for Betis; Antony and Ezzalzouli may miss the game, while the visitors’ vibrant attack continues to scare opponents and, crucially, remains injury-free.
Can the hosts compensate for this with the support of their home crowd? Likely not. I think this encounter will be one of many to provide a large number of goals, and we will find out the winner in the evening.
- Match Bet: Both Teams to Score + Total Over 2.5 (Odds: 1.90)
FCSB vs Fenerbahce
The Bucharest-based club enters this confrontation on a four-match losing streak across various competitions. To keep their playoff hopes alive, the Romanians need nothing less than a victory. Although “The Star” is the reigning back-to-back national champion, their current 11th place in the domestic league is a serious concern for fans. There is a real risk of failing to make the championship group (top 6) and, consequently, relinquishing their title prematurely.
Special attention should be paid to their disciplinary record: in three home matches of the current Europa League campaign, the “Red and Blues” have received 7 yellow cards, 6 of which were recorded in the second half of matches.
The Turkish giant currently outmatches its opponent in terms of quality of play, which is clearly reflected in their tournament standing. The “Yellow Canaries” have already guaranteed their participation in the Round of 32, so they will now fight only for a higher seeding in the playoffs. Fenerbahce players are known for their fiery temperament: this season in European competitions, they have collected 30 yellow cards and 1 red card, averaging nearly 4.5 bookings per match.
Serbian official Nenad Minakovic has been appointed as the head referee; he typically maintains a strict officiating style (5.3 cards per game). Given the intense motivation of the hosts, the crowd support, and the volatile nature of the Turks, who certainly won’t leave physical play unanswered, the match promises to turn into a real footballing battle.
- Match Bet: Cards (2nd Half), Total Over 1.5 (Odds: 1.75)
Lille vs SC Freiburg
At the Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille – who ideally need a win to break into the top 24 – will host Freiburg, for whom a draw will suffice to guarantee a place in the top 8.
Lille has started the New Year in catastrophic fashion – five defeats in five matches. A significant number of injuries has certainly impacted results, but the on-pitch situation also looks extremely alarming. In recent matches, the “Les Dogues” have shown frankly weak football, and the team’s defense resembles a “sieve” rather than an organized defensive line.
Unlike the hosts, Freiburg has lost only once in the new year, securing three wins and one draw. In the Europa League, the “Breisgau Brazilians” have yet to taste defeat and, alongside Viktoria Plzeň, possess the best defense in the tournament – conceding only 3 goals.
Lille is in a deep crisis, and despite the bookmakers’ favorite status, belief in a home win is minimal. Freiburg, while not a perfect side and occasionally capable of negative surprises, generally looks like a much more balanced and structured team. Under these conditions, Julian Schuster’s men are fully capable of achieving the minimum task and avoiding defeat in France.
- Match Bet: Freiburg Double Chance (X2) + Total Under 4.5 (Odds: 2.03)
Porto vs Rangers
Essentially, this meeting is only important for Porto. The team approached the final round of the league phase in ninth place – to return to the top 8 and avoid the knockout playoffs, they must secure three points at the finish. All the conditions for this are in place. Firstly, during the current Europa League campaign, Porto has yet to stumble on its home turf.
Secondly, they face an opponent from the bottom of the table. Rangers failed their European season and were eliminated from the Europa League prematurely, despite their first win of the current campaign. Prior to the last meeting with Ludogorets, the Scots had earned only one point in six rounds. On the road, they have three losses from three games. Even taking home games into account, Rangers have very modest scoring stats – just four goals in seven matches.
Even if the visitors manage to score, a motivated Porto will remain the favorite for the match and should comfortably overcome an unmotivated Rangers.
- Match Bet: Porto to Win + Total Under 4.5 (Odds: 1.58)
Genk vs Malmo
Genk currently sits in 10th place in the overall Europa League table, trailing the coveted top eight by just a single point. The team’s performances this season have looked quite pragmatic: their matches average slightly over two goals, yet the Belgians demonstrate high efficiency in converting chances. Things in the domestic league are not going well – a six-match winless streak has pushed the team down to 11th place out of 16 participants. Since the chances for a top-6 finish in the Belgian league are becoming increasingly slim, the “Smurfs” must place their primary focus on the international arena.
Malmo has become one of the main disappointments of the current Europa League draw. The Swedish giant lost its chance for a European spring in the previous round. With only one point after seven matches and a negative goal difference (-10), they will play only for prestige and for their fans, who will travel 800 km to support their favorite club. The season in Sweden ended back in November, and the next official games are not scheduled until late February. Therefore, there is no reason for the visitors to save their energy.
The visitors’ lack of tournament motivation combined with a long absence of competitive practice in official matches plays into the hosts’ hands. Genk is motivated not only to win but also to improve their goal difference, which points toward a confident victory for the Belgians.
- Match Bet: Genk Handicap (-1.5) (Odds: 2.05)
Ludogorets vs Nice
At the Huvepharma Arena, a motivated Ludogorets will host a demotivated Nice side, which lost all chances of advancing to the next round two matches before the end of the league phase.
Only in the last match against Rangers did the Razgrad side suffer their first defeat under Per-Mathias Høgmo, who took over the team in late November. It was with the arrival of the Norwegian specialist that the Bulgarian “Eagles'” play improved noticeably, and thanks to this, Ludogorets still maintains a real chance of reaching the top 24. The Bulgarian championship won’t resume until early February, so the team has the opportunity to focus specifically on this crucial encounter.
A similar situation exists for Nice – after a coaching change, results have improved: only one defeat in the first five matches under Claude Puel. However, the manager, well-known to the fans, still has plenty of work to do. Although the “Eaglets” no longer have tournament motivation in European competition, the last match in the Europa League showed that playing for prestige and significant prize money still matters for the French club.
Two of Ludogorets’ three Europa League matches under Høgmo have been high-scoring – 3:2 against Celta and 3:3 against PAOK. Nice, meanwhile, has consistently seen both teams score in five consecutive matches across all competitions. Despite quality attacking play, Puel’s defense remains far from flawless.
Under these circumstances, an exchange of goals looks like a fairly logical option.
- Match Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes (Odds: 1.64)
Lyon vs PAOK
Lyon is in excellent form, having secured victories in eight consecutive matches. This streak has been ongoing since mid-December, including two matches in the Europa League, where the French club leads the table and has already guaranteed its place in the Round of 16. Lyon’s attack has recently become even stronger with the arrival of Endrick; however, the Brazilian is ineligible to play in the Europa League. Meanwhile, Pavel Šulc, who has been moved into the forward line, is in superb form. The team has personnel issues on the left flank of the defense and may resort to rotation, but they will certainly score, as has been the case in all of Lyon’s home matches this season.
PAOK is also in good shape – the Greeks have secured victories for four rounds in a row. The team did not play over the weekend and has focused its preparation specifically on this match.
Lyon is stronger and playing at home, but motivation might allow Razvan Lucescu’s men to get a goal, so we expect specifically shots from PAOK. Additionally, Lyon’s next encounter is against Lille, their closest rival in the Ligue 1 table, meaning we might see Paulo Fonseca rotate his regular starting lineup.
- Match Bet: PAOK Total Shots Over 9.5 (Odds: 1.9)
Sturm Graz vs Brann
At the Merkur Arena, an unmotivated Sturm will host a hyper-motivated and gritty Brann side.
The completely spiritless performance in the last round against Feyenoord finally stripped Sturm of any chance of continuing the fight in the Europa League. Overall, the “Black and Whites'” European campaign can hardly be called anything other than a failure – with only one win, one draw, and five defeats. Furthermore, just three days after the match against Brann, the team faces an Austrian Cup quarter-final against Altach, which appears to be a much higher priority.
Brann has repeatedly demonstrated true fighting character throughout the league phase, which allows for optimism heading into the final round. The task for the Bergen side is straightforward: a victory in Graz guarantees a spot in the top 24 and removes any dependence on the results of their rivals. While a draw could theoretically suffice, leaving their fate to chance is clearly not the plan for the “Pride of Bergen.”
For Sturm, the Cup and the league remain the only tournaments where tournament motivation persists. The coaching staff will likely keep the cup meeting in mind first and foremost. However, it certainly won’t be an easy stroll for Brann in Graz. But thanks to their character, motivation, and tournament necessity, the visitors are fully capable of achieving a positive result.
I suggest playing with cover on a zero handicap for the visitors.
- Match Bet: Brann Handicap (0) (Odds: 1.76)
Panathinaikos vs Roma
Despite having already secured a playoff spot with 11 points, Panathinaikos’ home performances lack consistency: in matches against Sturm, Viktoria Plzeň, and Go Ahead Eagles, they recorded one win, one draw, and one loss. One should also consider their priorities in the national championship – on February 1, Rafael Benítez’s men face a crucial game against Kifisia, where the “Greens” need three points to continue their fight for the title.
Roma is gradually reaching peak form before the decisive stretch of the season. Since their exit from the Coppa Italia at the hands of Torino, the Romans have not tasted defeat. Their latest Serie A encounter against Milan, although ending in a draw (1:1), left a positive impression – the “Wolves” dominated nearly all performance metrics. In the Europa League, the Italians currently hold 6th place, and one point will likely suffice to maintain their position in the top 8.
A pragmatic game with a minimum number of clear-cut chances is expected. A draw would suit both opponents, but if evaluating current form, the Giallorossi look significantly more convincing.
- Match Bet: Roma Double Chance (X2) + Total Under 3.5 (Odds: 1.67)