Alex MacQuoid
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Toumba gets loud again this weekend as PAOK welcome Aris Thessaloniki for a fixture that always carries a bit more weight than a normal round-five clash, even in a season this young. Both clubs sit inside the top seven after three games, separated by a single point, and both arrive having stumbled somewhere in the last fortnight. PAOK got humbled 1-3 by league leaders Panathinaikos last time out, a result that stung given how comfortable Alessio Lisci’s side had looked in the weeks before. Aris, meanwhile, drew 1-1 with Asteras Tripolis after being taken apart 0-5 by AEK Athens the match before that. Honestly, neither team walks in with much momentum, but the underlying numbers still lean toward the hosts here.
Dimitrios Pelkas has been PAOK’s standout creator lately, three goals in his last four appearances from midfield, and he tends to find pockets of space between Aris’ lines that Grigoriou’s side has struggled to close down all season. On the other side, Uros Racic is the engine that makes Aris tick, he’s covered every minute of the last five matches, chips in defensively (three interceptions) and still gets forward enough to score and assist. If either of these two get time on the ball, expect the game to open up.
Hot stat: Aris have banked three straight wins earlier in this stretch of five games, yet somehow they’ve still shipped eight goals across that same run, including that 5-0 mauling from AEK. A defense that leaky on the road against a PAOK attack averaging almost two goals per match at home is a genuine concern for the visitors.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Super League 1 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
PAOK vs Aris Thessaloniki prediction
We’re backing PAOK here, but not blindly. The home side sit fifth in the table with a plus-three goal difference, they’ve scored nine in their last five, and Toumba remains a genuinely hostile place to visit. Aris are decent going forward too, eight goals in five, but their defense concedes at almost the same rate it scores, which is exactly the profile PAOK’s front three (Pelkas, Živković, Shoretire behind Ndiaye) should exploit. Our value play is PAOK to win combined with both teams scoring, since Aris rarely go a full ninety without troubling the opposition net, even in defeats.
Style-wise this should be a physical, foul-heavy contest. Aris have picked up 71 fouls and 11 yellows across their last five matches, noticeably more cards than PAOK’s seven, and their passing accuracy (roughly 80%) trails PAOK’s (also around 80% but built on far more possession-heavy phases, 1644 passes attempted versus 1516). PAOK also win more corners on the balance of recent form once you factor in territorial dominance, though Aris’ set-piece delivery through Garré and Racic keeps them dangerous from wide areas too. Expect a stop-start rhythm early, then space to open up as fatigue and cards pile up in the second half.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | PAOK to win & Both Teams to Score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
PAOK’s last five reads win, loss, win, draw, loss when you trace it back properly, and that 1-3 collapse against Panathinaikos is the one that’ll bother Lisci most. His side actually led spells of that game before switching off defensively, a pattern that’s crept into a couple of results this term. The 4-0 demolition of Levadiakos two games earlier showed the ceiling though, Ndiaye and Pelkas both got on the scoresheet and the front line looked unstoppable when given room. A goalless draw with OFI Crete sandwiched in between hints at inconsistency more than decline, PAOK still control possession in most matches (over 1300 accurate passes across the sample) but they don’t always convert that control into cutting edges.
Aris go into this on the back of a 1-1 stalemate with Asteras Tripolis, a fair result on the balance of chances but one that follows the alarming 0-5 loss at AEK Athens. That result probably still lingers a bit in the dressing room. Before that though, Aris strung together genuine quality: a 2-1 win over OFI Crete, a scrappy 3-2 away at AO Kalamata, and a comfortable 2-0 over Karditsa. Grigoriou’s men clearly can score goals in bunches, Rafa Mir, Palacios and Kouame all rotate up top, but the same matches show a defense that leaks chances even in wins. That combination, goals at both ends, is exactly why we like the BTTS angle here.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | PAOK | Aris Thessaloniki |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 5 meetings) | 4 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated PAOK vs Aris Thessaloniki stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: PAOK the favourite
- Moneyline PAOK 1.57 | Aris Thessaloniki 5.28
- Draw 3.85
Bookmakers hand PAOK roughly a 60% implied chance of winning this one outright, and honestly that tracks with what we’re seeing in the underlying numbers. Aris at over 5.00 feels a touch generous given how they’ve been scoring, but their away defensive record makes it hard to fully back them at that price either. The draw sitting near 3.85 seems fair for a fixture that’s produced two 0-0s and a 1-1 in its last three renewals, this rivalry has a habit of being tighter than the table suggests.
Possible Starting Lineups
PAOK possible starting eleven
- GK: Jiří Pavlenka
- DF: Jonjoe Kenny, Giannis Michailidis, Aritz Elustondo, Abdul Rahman Baba
- MF: Baptiste Santamaria, Christos Zafeiris, Dimitrios Pelkas, Andrija Živković, Shola Shoretire
- FW: Cherif Ndiaye
Lisci should stick with the 4-2-3-1 that’s carried PAOK through the last five games. Pavlenka’s ten saves in that span justify the gloves, and Kenny’s near-ever-present 450 minutes at right back says everything about his importance. Pelkas is the man to watch, three goals from midfield in four starts is a serious return, and Ndiaye leading the line gives PAOK a physical outlet up top even when the wide players get crowded out.
Aris Thessaloniki possible starting eleven
- GK: Ricardo Velho
- DF: Noah Fadiga, Fabiano Leismann, Jeremy Petris, Omar Richards
- MF: Uros Racic, Fredrik Jensen, Manu García, Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiru, Benjamin Garré
- FW: Rafa Mir
Grigoriou also favours 4-2-3-1, and Racic’s presence in the double pivot alongside Jensen gives the side both a defensive screen and a passing outlet, he’s played every minute of the last five matches. Garré’s set-piece delivery (12 free kicks taken) will matter against a PAOK backline that can be sloppy on crosses. Rafa Mir gets the nod up top on minutes played, though Sebastián Palacios could easily swap in given how close their usage numbers are.
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Aris Thessaloniki. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We think PAOK edge this at Toumba, not comfortably, but enough. Their home form and the sheer volume of chances they generate should be too much for an Aris defense that’s conceded eight in five outings. Still, Aris don’t sit back and absorb pressure, they’ll have a go, Mir and Palacios both create enough for us to expect a goal or two from the away side as well. Our lean is PAOK to win with both teams scoring, and there’s value sniffing around the corners market too given how territorial this one should get in spells. A 2-1 or 3-1 finish for the hosts wouldn’t surprise us at all.
