Twente vs Excelsior Prediction: 24.01.2026 Eredivisie 2025/26

As Eredivisie action resumes on January 24th, Twente will host Excelsior at De Grolsch Veste in Enschede. While Twente are pushing to cement their European ambitions, Excelsior look to claw crucial points to avoid being dragged further into the relegation tussle. Despite their contrasting season trajectories, Excelsior managed a shock victory in their previous head-to-head, adding an extra layer of intrigue to this rematch.

For Twente, the reliable forward Ricky van Wolfswinkel poses a constant threat, having found the net twice in his last three appearances. Meanwhile, Excelsior’s Irakli Yegoian brings dynamism from midfield, recently adding a goal and offering steel in both transition and buildup play.

Twente’s remarkable 65 total shots across their last five matches stands out — more than double Excelsior’s tally (29) over the same span — underscoring the hosts’ offensive potency ahead of this fixture.

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Twente vs Excelsior prediction

The data and recent trends strongly point toward a Twente victory. The hosts are unbeaten in three (two wins, one draw), boast a 67% win rate over the last month, and rank in Eredivisie’s upper tier for both ball possession and shots attempted. Excelsior, meanwhile, have failed to win any of their last three, collecting just two points from possible nine — a sequence that reflects their broader season struggles, especially away from home.

Twente’s disciplined approach under John van den Brom has yielded a strong defensive record (22 goals conceded in 19 games) and notable control in midfield, evident in their high pass accuracy (84%) and robust interception numbers. They do, however, accumulate a moderate amount of fouls (27 in last five games), which could provide Excelsior some set-piece opportunities.

Excelsior line up in a similar 4-2-3-1 system but lack the attacking depth and shooting frequency to consistently trouble top-half teams, shown by their modest tally of 20 goals and the league-worst shot count (29 in last five matches). They are, however, dogged — drawing twice recently and showing discipline with fewer yellow cards than their hosts.

Team Analysis

Twente Recent Games:
Twente have performed with consistency, highlighted by their recent 2-0 win over Heracles. This result capped a solid run, following a narrow 2-1 victory against Utrecht and a hard-fought 1-1 draw with PEC Zwolle. In these matches, van Wolfswinkel and Daan Rots have spearheaded attacks, while the defense, marshaled by Robin Propper and Lars Unnerstall in goal, has delivered stability. Twente’s 65 shots and 14 corners in their last five show a side pushing games onto the front foot. Their pressing and transitional play resulted in 18 interceptions, a key foundation for their swift attacks.

Excelsior Recent Games:
Excelsior’s recent form paints a contrasting picture. They enter this fixture after a gritty 1-1 home draw with AZ Alkmaar, following a 2-2 result against Telstar and a heavy 1-5 defeat to runaway leaders PSV. While their defense has looked vulnerable, the emergence of midfielders like Irakli Yegoian and the adaptability of defenders Ilias Bronkhorst and Arthur Zagre have offered flashes of competitiveness. However, a total of just 29 shots and 12 corners in five matches highlight sustained difficulties in advancing play and creating high-value chances.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Twente vs Excelsior stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Twente the favourite

• Moneyline Twente 1.34 | Excelsior 8.20
• Draw 5.40
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.68 | Under 2.5 2.15
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.10 | No 1.72

The odds heavily favor a home win, reflecting both Twente’s upper-table pedigree and Excelsior’s struggles on the road. A price of just 1.34 for Twente on the moneyline is consistent with their shots dominance, superior ball retention, and sharper frontline. Excelsior’s long 8.20 odds signal bookmaker skepticism about their away resilience — and for good reason, given their recent attacking outputs. Markets expect a relatively high-scoring match (over 2.5 goals at 1.68) but see a clean sheet for Twente as probable (BTTS “No” at 1.72).

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Possible Starting Lineups

Twente possible starting eleven

Expect Twente to stick with their trusted 4-2-3-1, maximizing the link-up play between van Wolfswinkel and Daan Rots in attack. The back four features the reliable duo of Propper and Lemkin at center-back, while Unnerstall’s safe hands in goal provide confidence. The midfield will be pivotal, especially with Van den Belt offering both recoveries and forward thrusts.

Excelsior possible starting eleven

Excelsior should mirror Twente’s 4-2-3-1, counting on van Gassel’s agility in goal and the defensive experience of Widell and Meissen. Yegoian is pivotal in linking midfield and attack, with Hansson and Sanches Fernandes tasked to provide the creative spark. A compact midfield trio will be instrumental if Excelsior are to carve out chances and limit Twente’s rhythm.

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My take on the Match

All key indicators favor Twente, from their superior shot creation and passing accuracy to a resolute defensive core. Excelsior’s tendency to lose attacking momentum against organized sides is unlikely to change here. My main pick is Twente to cover the -1.5 Asian Handicap — their offensive aggression, home field advantage, and Excelsior’s struggles in both boxes suggest a multi-goal victory. Expect Twente to control possession, press high, and limit Excelsior’s forays, while Ricky van Wolfswinkel may once again be decisive in front of goal.

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