Sofia Quijada
As the La Liga 2024/25 regular season enters its decisive phase, Sevilla and Alavés meet at Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán for a match that carries significant implications, primarily for the home side’s quest to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap. Sevilla, sitting 15th with 36 points, have endured a torrid run of form and desperately need a result to halt their slide. Alavés, just six points and two places behind, equally seek to steady their campaign and stay clear of the bottom three. With both clubs struggling for consistency, this encounter represents not just a battle for points, but a pivotal psychological contest that could define the closing weeks of each side’s season.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2024/25 (Regular Season) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.04.2025 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:30 CEST |
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Sevilla vs Alavés Prediction
The data and recent form point towards a tightly contested, low-scoring affair. Sevilla possess home advantage but have lost their past four matches, while Alavés have claimed a single win from their last four games. Both outfits favor the 4-2-3-1 formation—a sign of tactical conservatism and an emphasis on structured defensive lines rather than outright attacking exuberance.
Given Sevilla’s slightly superior squad depth and motivation to arrest their downward spiral, the best value appears to be Sevilla in the Draw No Bet market. Their ball retention averages 54% over the last five matches, marginally better than Alavés, yet they have lacked decisiveness in the final third. Alavés have struggled similarly, scoring only once in their last four outings and showing noticeable issues with discipline (12 yellow cards in their last five games). This hints at a match likely to be fractured by fouls and disruptions, with scoring opportunities at a premium.
Should Sevilla rediscover their attacking coordination, their home crowd could inspire a narrow margin victory. However, expect few goals, heavy midfield battles, and a high probability for under 2.5 total goals.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Sevilla Draw No Bet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 10.5 |
Team Analysis
Sevilla enter this game on the back of a dispiriting four-match losing streak, their most recent defeat a narrow 0-1 loss to Valencia—a match characterized by lack of attacking penetration despite home advantage. Their form over the last five games (1-4), and only three wins in 14 league outings this year, reflect deeper structural problems under Joaquín Caparrós. Notably, their average pass accuracy sits at 54%, but the team’s inability to convert promising build-ups into goals stands as a persistent issue.
Alavés have fared little better. Their recent 0-1 home reverse to Real Madrid underscored familiar attacking deficiencies and a susceptibility to pressure on the break. With only three wins from 13 league games this season, Eduardo Coudet’s side remain dogged by inconsistency. Their discipline issues—twelve yellow cards and a red in their last five—suggest defensive desperation rather than controlled aggression, which could leave them exposed to Sevilla’s front four.
Most recent H2Hs: Sevilla dominates
| Statistic | Sevilla | Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 7 | 10 |
| Free kicks | 12 | 14 |
| Corner kicks | 5 | 3 |
| Total fouls | 13 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 19 | 15 |
🚨Read our full Sevilla vs Alavés stats for more analysis.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Sevilla the favourite
| Moneyline | Sevilla 2.00 | Alavés 4.20 | |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.10 | |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.75 | |
| BTTS (both teams to score) | Yes 2.15 | No 1.65 | |
These odds clearly reflect Sevilla’s home advantage and greater expectations, but punters should be circumspect: their form does not show dominance, and Alavés have already upset stronger sides this season, notably defeating Villarreal. Still, bookmakers’ average pre-match win probability—Sevilla 47%, draw 31%, Alavés 22%—is logical given both recent form and historical stature.
You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.
Key Players to Watch
Dodi Lukebakio (Sevilla): While yet to find peak form, Lukebakio’s influence is evident in chance creation and high work rate (7 total shots, 1 assist in last 3 matches). Whether stationed wide or drifting central, his directness and pace can unsettle a physical Alavés defence.
Carlos Vicente (Alavés): Vicente has emerged as Alavés’ brightest threat, netting their lone goal in his past three appearances while adding dynamism along the right flank. His 91 passes at 87% accuracy signify intelligence in movement and composure—traits Alavés will need in transition.
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Possible Starting Lineups
Sevilla possible starting eleven
- GK: Ørjan Nyland
- DF: Kike Salas, Marcão, Loic Bade, Adrià Pedrosa
- MF: Nemanja Gudelj, Albert Sambi Lokonga, Lucien Agoumé
- FW: Dodi Lukebakio, Isaac Romero, Suso
Caparrós is likely to trust his standard 4-2-3-1, with Nyland in goal behind a back four of Salas, Marcão, Bade, and Pedrosa offering physicality with ball-playing potential. Lokonga and Gudelj should anchor midfield, while Agoumé—who scored recently—links defense with a versatile attack. The front four features Lukebakio for direct dribbling, Romero’s hold-up play, and Suso’s creativity wide. Watch for Lukebakio’s ability to shift between lines and couple with Suso’s technical quality in setting the tempo.
Alavés possible starting eleven
- GK: Antonio Sivera
- DF: Manuel Sánchez, Abdel Abqar, Alvaro Santiago Mourino, Moussa Diarra
- MF: Antonio Blanco, Jon Guridi, Joan Jordan
- FW: Carlos Vicente, Kike, Tomás Conechny
Coudet also prefers the 4-2-3-1, keeping defensive solidity with Sánchez and Diarra as fullbacks, Mourino and Abqar central. In midfield, Guridi’s box-to-box energy combines with the passing accuracy of Blanco and Jordan. Up top, Vicente and Conechny offer pace and movement, while Kike provides aerial presence and ability to press from the front. Expect Alavés to rely on direct transitions and isolate Vicente in one-on-one situations as a primary route to goal.
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Alavés. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Main Pick: Sevilla Draw No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals
Although Sevilla’s current struggles sow doubt, their home record and comparative squad depth slightly outweigh Alavés’ discipline issues and lackluster away form. Expect a hard-fought encounter, shaped as much by tactical restraint and physical duels as moments of inspiration from wide players like Lukebakio and Vicente. This fixture may not dazzle in attack, but it is engrossing for its survival stakes—a microcosm of La Liga’s ruthless, dramatic narrative. For viewers and punters alike, caution is advised: back Sevilla with insurance, favor the under, and enjoy the intricate dance of tension and tactical nuance.
