Sofia Quijada
Real Potosi host Nacional Potosi at Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte in a Bolivian Professional Football League derby between two clubs from the same city. Real sit 10th with 9 points from 6 games, while Nacional occupy 5th with 11 points from 8 outings, making this a meeting where the visitors carry the stronger league momentum. The interesting angle here is that Real Potosi beat Nacional 1-0 in a February friendly, showing the home side can be competitive despite the ranking gap between the clubs.
Maximiliano Núñez is the Nacional attacker to watch: he contributed a goal and an assist in the last match and looks like the most dangerous outlet in their forward line. For Real Potosi, the team’s collective defensive shape will matter most given the absence of reliable individual player data on their side.
Hot stat: Real Potosi registered 20 total shots across their last five matches compared to Nacional’s 11, suggesting Real generate more attacking volume despite having fewer league points.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Bolivian Professional Football League 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte, Potosi |
| 🗓️ Date: | 12.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Real Potosi vs Nacional Potosi Prediction
Real Potosi’s home record looks solid: their 6-game league tally includes a 3-1 win over Academia del Balompie most recently, and they have not conceded in two of their last three home appearances. Nacional Potosi’s away form is inconsistent, with losses to Guabira and Always Ready in their last few road trips. The bookmakers lean toward Real at roughly 41% probability, and we agree that the home advantage at altitude in Potosi is a real factor. The single head-to-head data point, a Real Potosi win in February, further supports backing the home side.
Nacional average only 9 fouls per five matches and commit fewer free kicks than Real, pointing to a team that plays a more passive, possession-based style. Real Potosi, with 11 free kicks conceded, play more aggressively, which at home can translate into set-piece opportunities. Nacional’s pass accuracy is noticeably higher (441 accurate passes vs Real’s 308), meaning they will look to control possession rather than trade blows, which tends to keep scorelines tight in these derbies.
- We predict Real Potosi to win or draw (Double Chance: 1X) as the safest value play given home advantage and Nacional’s poor away form.
- We predict Under 2.5 goals, as both teams have shown defensive solidity recently and Nacional’s away trips have been low-scoring.
- We predict BTTS: No, with Real Potosi keeping clean sheets in recent home games and Nacional’s attack misfiring on the road.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Real Potosi to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Real Potosi arrive into this match in reasonable shape. Their most recent league outing was a convincing 3-1 home win against Academia del Balompie, which followed a goalless draw away to The Strongest. Before that, a 0-2 loss at Oriente Petrolero was their only defeat in five league matches. Coach Fabio Espada’s side drew with Tomayapo and beat Guabira 3-0 earlier in the run, showing they can be clinical at home. Their last 15-match form translates to a run heavy with wins and draws, with only two losses, and their single match in the last 30 days ended in a win, giving them confidence heading into this derby.
Nacional Potosi’s recent form is more erratic. Their last league result was a 2-0 win over Aurora, which was a strong result given Aurora sit 2nd in the table. Before that, Nacional lost 1-2 to Guabira and drew 1-1 with Bolivar, and they suffered a 1-3 defeat to leaders Always Ready. Their 14-match season record of 5 wins from 14 games underlines inconsistency. Coach Alexis Márquez has a squad that can beat top sides on their day, as the Aurora result proves, but they drop points regularly against mid-table opposition. On the road specifically, their results have been mixed, and the altitude of Potosi will not help a visiting team.
🚨Check out our dedicated Real Potosi vs Nacional Potosi stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Real Potosi the Favourite
- Moneyline Real Potosi 2.20–2.24 | Nacional Potosi 2.84–2.85
- Draw 3.50
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
The odds make this closer than expected for a home side facing a team ranked significantly higher globally. Real Potosi at 2.20–2.24 represents fair value when you factor in home advantage, the altitude of Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte, and Nacional’s inconsistent away displays. The draw at 3.50 is generous and worth a small consideration given how tight derbies between these two clubs tend to be. Nacional’s odds around 2.84 reflect their superior league ranking but overstate their away threat based on recent evidence.
Possible Starting Lineups
Nacional Potosi Possible Starting Eleven
- DF: Edisson Restrepo, Oscar Baldomar
- MF: luis pavia
- FW: Maximiliano Núñez, Maicon Solis, C. Abastoflor
Based on available data from Nacional’s last match, Alexis Márquez deployed a 4-4-2 shape. Oscar Baldomar contributed an assist from defense, showing his involvement in build-up play. Maximiliano Núñez is the standout name, combining a goal and an assist in 79 minutes, and he will be the focal point of Nacional’s attack in this derby. Maicon Solis provided width and combined well with Núñez, logging 90 minutes and two shots. The defensive unit of Restrepo and Baldomar looks organized, but they will be tested by Real Potosi’s high shot volume at home.
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Nacional Potosi. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Real Potosi’s home record, shot volume, and the only previous head-to-head result all point in the same direction. Nacional Potosi are the stronger side on paper and their win over Aurora shows their ceiling, but their away performances have been too unreliable to back them at 2.84. We predict a narrow Real Potosi win, with the match staying under 2.5 goals. Real’s 3-1 win last time out at home showed they can be clinical, and Nacional’s attack, while dangerous through Núñez, lacks the consistency to find the net away from home against a motivated home side. The Double Chance 1X is the value play, with Real Potosi to win to nil as the higher-risk, higher-reward option for those wanting more return.
