Alex MacQuoid
The EFL League Two 2025/26 Final throws up a matchup with contrasting forms and ambitions as Notts County face Salford City at Meadow Lane, Nottingham. A compelling subplot: both clubs’ managers, Martin Paterson and Karl Robinson, have been lauded for their tactical variety this season. It’s not just about glory; a return to League One is at stake, making this more than a routine end-of-season game. Two to keep an eye on—Kallum Cesay, whose surges from defence for Salford have notched vital goals recently, and Tom Iorpenda, the driving force in Notts County’s midfield, looking to break lines and dictate tempo.
Salford City’s recent 4-goal outburst across their last five matches stands out—only conceding three yellow cards in the same period, a blend of aggression and control that’s rare at this level.
| 🏆 Tournament: | EFL League Two 2025/26 Final (England) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Meadow Lane, Nottingham |
| 🗓️ Date: | 25.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:00 CEST |
Notts County vs Salford City prediction
We think Salford City hold the upper hand, even with the neutral venue factor. Their 75% win rate over the last month, coupled with sharper attacking statistics—21 total shots, 12 corners in their last five matches—speaks volumes. Notts County’s defensive shape under Paterson can frustrate, but their shot count and passing accuracy (just 250 out of 322 passes, a dip under pressure) raise questions about their ability to create sustained pressure.
The foul count paints a picture. Salford rack up 34 fouls in five games, more than double Notts County’s 16, but remain disciplined: only three yellow cards for each. High work rate, borderline risky, yet rarely reckless. Ball retention swings to Salford too—558 passes attempted, even if accuracy (just 318 successful) isn’t elite. Notts County will likely sit deep, absorb, and look for transitions, while Salford push the tempo and probe for gaps. Expect a match where set pieces, corners, and second balls could define the outcome.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Salford City to win & Over 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Notts County’s recent form wavers. Last out, they ground out a tense 0-0 draw against Chesterfield—a match that exposed limitations up front and a reliance on tight defensive lines. They managed 18 shots across their last five matches, but few were clear-cut. Previous results: 1-0 over Chesterfield, 1-0 over Colchester, but a concerning 1-2 home loss to Barnet and a 0-4 collapse to Cambridge United. This inconsistency gnaws at confidence. Jodi Jones and Alassana Jatta have seen minutes but are yet to deliver in key moments. The midfield pivots on Oliver Norburn and Tom Iorpenda, the latter often tasked with knitting the play together and making late runs into the box.
Salford City’s run, in contrast, looks sturdier. Their last match, a 1-2 loss to Grimsby, came after a vital 2-1 win against the same opponent—showing they can both grind and recover quickly. Before that, 2-0 over Bromley and a 2-1 win against Oldham Athletic. Only Gillingham have held them scoreless (0-0), but Salford’s offensive combinations, especially via Kallum Cesay and Daniel Udoh, carry threat. Kelly N’Mai’s workrate and Luke Garbutt’s overlapping runs add further unpredictability. The backline, with Haji Mnoga and Adebola Oluwo, combines strength and ball progression. Karl Robinson’s tweaks to a 3-4-2-1 shape have gotten more from his forwards, Daniel Udoh particularly sharp in the penalty area.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Notts County | Salford City |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 2 |
| Total shots | 18 | 21 |
| Free kicks | 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks | 5 | 12 |
| Total fouls | 16 | 34 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 250/322 | 318/558 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 13 |
| Offsides | 1 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Notts County vs Salford City stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Salford City the favourite
- Moneyline Notts County XXXX | Salford City XXXX
- Draw XXXX
- Over/Under Over 2.5 XXXX | Under 2.5 XXXX
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes XXXX | No XXXX
The bookies’ numbers are missing, but consensus from the TipsGG punters team: Salford City edge out as the marginal favorite based on both recent results and head-to-head momentum. Notts County’s goal threat is muted, while Salford’s attack looks lively. If odds for Salford drift above 2.20, that’s value. The goal markets will tempt—both defences give up chances, and corners could rack up quickly given both teams’ set piece emphasis. BTTS seems likely, though Notts have failed to score in two of their last five. The draw can’t be discounted, but Salford’s edge in big-game experience and physical output makes them the stronger punt.
Notts County. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Notts County possible starting eleven
- GK: James Belshaw
- DF: Rod McDonald, Jacob Bedeau, Lucas Ness, Keanan Bennetts
- MF: Scott Robertson, Conor Grant, Oliver Norburn, Tom Iorpenda, Tyrese Hall
- FW: Alassana Jatta
Belshaw’s experience between the posts gives Notts a steady hand. In defence, McDonald and Bedeau anchor, with Ness and Bennetts pushing wide when possible. The midfield five includes Robertson’s metronome passing, Norburn’s bite, and Iorpenda’s late arrivals. Jatta leads the line—still searching for a goal, but his hold-up play can buy time for midfield runners. Likely shape: 4-2-3-1, morphing to 4-5-1 when defending deep. Tom Iorpenda is the man to watch—if he gets space, he can unlock Salford’s defence.
Salford City possible starting eleven
- GK: Mark Howard
- DF: Luke Garbutt, Haji Mnoga, Adebola Oluwo, Brandon Cooper, Kallum Cesay
- MF: Josh Austerfield, Matt Butcher, Kelly N’Mai
- FW: Daniel Udoh, Ryan Graydon
Howard is the clear choice in goal. The back five has Garbutt and Cesay as flying fullbacks, Mnoga and Oluwo flanking Cooper in central areas. In midfield, Austerfield and Butcher bring stability, with Kelly N’Mai offering dynamism in transition. Udoh and Graydon operate up top, Udoh in form, Graydon with clever off-ball movement. The 3-4-2-1 system is likely, with plenty of vertical switches. Kallum Cesay’s goal threat is the wildcard—defenders don’t expect it, but he pops up in the box.
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Salford City. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We think Salford City to lift the trophy, possibly by a narrow 2-1 or 3-1 margin. Their sharper attack, greater set-piece threat, and higher volume of chances suggest an edge. Notts County’s best hope lies in holding firm, snatching a goal on the counter, but Salford’s intensity and physicality should wear them down eventually. Watch for a cagey opening, then things opening up after the break.
