Liam Duckstein
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Serie A 2026/27 kicks off with an intriguing matchup at the Bluenergy Stadium, where Udinese host a Como side that has grown considerably under Cesc Fàbregas. The visitors arrive as clear bookmaker favourites, but Udinese under Kosta Runjaic have shown they can grind out results against strong opposition. What makes this fixture particularly interesting is that Como have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings, including a 4-1 away victory back in the 2024/25 season.
Two players stand out as key figures heading into this match. For Como, Martin Baturina has been the most productive attacking midfielder in recent weeks, registering a goal across his last two appearances with five shots and seven free kicks earned. On the Udinese side, Nicolo Zaniolo carries the most creative threat, generating seven shots and four free kicks in his last two outings, even if end product has been elusive.
The hot stat from recent matches belongs to Udinese: they have beaten both Barcelona and Nottingham Forest 1-0 in their last five games, results that suggest real defensive organisation even when the opposition quality is significantly higher on paper.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Bluenergy Stadium, Udine |
| 🗓️ Date: | 22.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:30 CEST |
Udinese vs Como Prediction
Como are the stronger team on current form and hold a clear edge in the head-to-head record. Fàbregas has built a side that passes with purpose, creates from wide areas, and presses with consistency. Their 899 passes and 784 pass accuracy in the last five matches comfortably outpace Udinese’s 819 and 705 respectively, pointing to a team that controls tempo and territory.
Udinese are not without hope. They have kept clean sheets in three of their last five matches and showed defensive resilience even in matches where they were clear underdogs. The problem is their attacking output has been minimal. Keinan Davis is the only player with a goal in the last five games, and the team managed just three corner kicks across those fixtures, which indicates limited pressure in the final third.
We predict Como to win this match, but the scoreline is likely to be tight. Both teams have been scoring infrequently in recent games, with each side netting just one goal across their last five matches combined in the stats window provided. A low-scoring Como win is the most logical outcome.
Udinese average 23 fouls per five matches, slightly higher than Como’s 20, and Udinese’s 3 yellow cards versus Como’s 1 suggests a physical approach that could disrupt Como’s rhythm but also invite set-piece danger. Como earn more free kicks (25 vs 23) and generate significantly more corner kicks (10 vs 3), which reinforces their attacking dominance.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Como to Win to Nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Udinese have picked up three wins from eight matches over the last 30 days, which is a reasonable but not convincing return. Their form across the last 15 results shows a team that alternates between short winning runs and losing streaks without establishing real consistency. The most recent match was a 1-0 win over Padova, a lower-ranked side, which followed a 1-0 win over Barcelona and a 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest in what was clearly a structured cup or friendly run. Before those wins, they suffered back-to-back losses and drew with Mainz 3-3 after conceding a 0-1 defeat to Trabzonspor. Runjaic’s side can defend when organised, but their attacking output remains a real concern heading into a league opener.
Como have drawn three of their last six matches and carry a 33% win rate over that period, which is modest on paper. Their most recent outing was a 0-2 defeat to Liverpool, and before that a 1-1 draw with Arsenal. Those results, against two of Europe’s elite clubs, are actually credible performances for a side in Como’s position. Earlier in the five-match window they beat Famalicao 3-2 and Al Ula 3-1, showing they can score freely when the opposition allows space. The 1-1 draw with Villarreal also reflects a team capable of competing against established European names. Fàbregas’s side generate chances, press high, and use width effectively, with Jacobo Ramón and Yan Couto offering real output from defensive wide positions.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Udinese | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 5 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Udinese vs Como stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Como the Favourite
- Moneyline Udinese 4.55 | Como 1.81
- Draw 3.50
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The market is firm on Como, with average odds around 1.81 reflecting the 52% win probability assigned to the visitors. Udinese at 4.55 carry value only for punters who believe the hosts can replicate their defensive solidity from recent cup fixtures against top clubs. The draw at 3.50 is fair given how tight these meetings have been, with two of the last four ending level or by a single goal. We lean toward Como at these prices as the most straightforward play, though the “Como to Win to Nil” angle offers better value given Udinese’s current attacking limitations.
Udinese. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Udinese Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Edoardo Piana
- DF: Matteo Palma, Oumar Solet, James Abankwah, Mergim Vojvoda
- MF: Jesper Karlstrom, Jakub Piotrowski, Lennon Miller, Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
- FW: Nicolo Zaniolo, Keinan Davis
Runjaic has favoured a 3-4-2-1 shape, and the players selected here reflect the most consistent appearances from the last five matches. Oumar Solet and Matteo Palma have been the most active defenders in terms of passes and interceptions. Lennon Miller brings energy in the middle, and Zaniolo is the most likely creator in the final third. Keinan Davis is the only striker with a goal in this window and should lead the line. Edoardo Piana gets the nod in goal based on appearance count.
Como Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Jean Butez
- DF: Jacobo Ramón, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc-Oliver Kempf, Yan Couto
- MF: Luis Milla, Maximo Perrone, Martin Baturina, Jesús Rodríguez
- FW: Mattia Liberali, Anastasios Douvikas
Fàbregas typically deploys a 4-2-3-1, and this lineup reflects the players who have featured most regularly in recent fixtures. Jean Butez has been active in goal, making three saves and completing 77 passes, which shows his involvement in buildup play. Jacobo Ramón and Yan Couto are the standout wing-backs, both offering attacking width. Luis Milla and Maximo Perrone form a disciplined double pivot. Baturina is the player to watch as the number ten, and Douvikas leads the line with four shots in his last two appearances. Liberali, with an assist and two interceptions, adds a dynamic option from the left.
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Como. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
The numbers point clearly toward Como. They dominate possession, generate more shots, earn more corners, and hold the better head-to-head record in recent seasons. Their 50% win rate this year against Udinese’s 38% reinforces the quality gap between these two sides at this stage of the season.
Udinese’s best chance is to sit deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter through Zaniolo or Davis. They have shown they can keep clean sheets, but doing so against a Como side this well-organised and creative will be a real challenge. The 0-0 draw from their most recent league meeting shows it is possible, but the 1-4 defeat in Udine two seasons ago is a more worrying reference point for the hosts.
We predict a 0-1 Como win. The visitors have the quality to find the net at least once, and Udinese’s attacking record gives little confidence they will respond. Under 2.5 goals and Como to Win to Nil are the two bets we back most strongly for this fixture.
