Sofia Quijada
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Athletic Bilbao open their home La Liga 2026/27 account against a Sevilla side that has already picked up three points from their opening fixture. Edin Terzic’s Bilbao arrive under pressure after back-to-back defeats in European competition, while Luis Garcia Plaza’s men carry early-season momentum. The San Mamés crowd will be expected to drive a reaction from the hosts, though Sevilla’s 2-1 win over Rayo Vallecano just days ago shows they are in sharp form heading into this trip north.
Oihan Sancet is the player to watch for Athletic Bilbao. He has been the side’s most productive midfielder this season, contributing directly to goals and controlling tempo in the 4-2-3-1 system. For Sevilla, Jon Guridi stands out as a genuine goal threat from midfield, having scored in the most recent match against Rayo Vallecano while also drawing a yellow card, which reflects the combative role he plays in Garcia Plaza’s setup.
Hot stat: Sevilla registered 13 total shots in their last match compared to Athletic Bilbao’s 5, suggesting the visitors carry significantly more attacking output at this stage of the season.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao |
| 🗓️ Date: | 22.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 17:00 CEST |
Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla Prediction
Athletic Bilbao are the clear bookmakers’ favourite at around 55% win probability, and the home advantage at San Mamés is a genuine factor in La Liga. Terzic’s side won three of their last six matches and have been solid domestically against lower-ranked opponents, posting a 3-0 win over Racing Santander and a 3-0 over Burgos CF. Sevilla, despite their positive early-season result, lost to Bayer Leverkusen in their last European outing and have been inconsistent across a longer sample, winning four of their last seven.
Both teams line up in a 4-2-3-1, which tends to produce a structured, midfield-contested match. Athletic Bilbao commit more fouls (23 in the last match) than Sevilla (18), suggesting they press aggressively and disrupt play higher up the pitch. Sevilla’s pass accuracy in the last match was noticeably lower than Bilbao’s, pointing to a team that plays more directly rather than building from the back. Bilbao’s higher interception count also suggests they are more proactive in winning the ball, which at home could translate into territorial dominance.
We predict an Athletic Bilbao win. The home environment, superior recent domestic form, and Sevilla’s tendency to concede in away fixtures all point in Bilbao’s favour. The match is unlikely to be a high-scoring affair given both sides’ defensive setups and low corner output in recent games.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Athletic Bilbao to win & Under 2.5 Goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Athletic Bilbao’s recent run has been mixed. They won three and lost two of their last six matches, with the defeats coming against Atalanta (0-1) and Marseille (1-3) in European competition. Their domestic performances have been far more convincing, with wins over Racing Santander and Burgos CF both ending 3-0. The loss to Atalanta, who carry a world club ranking of 32, reflects the gap in quality Bilbao face at the top European level, not a systemic issue. In their most recent match, they managed only 5 shots and 1 goal, which points to a cautious, structured approach against strong opposition rather than a collapse in attacking intent.
Sevilla come into this fixture having won four of their last seven matches. Their most recent result, a 2-1 victory over Rayo Vallecano, was a confident performance with Guridi and Peque Fernández both contributing goals. Before that, they fell 1-2 to Bayer Leverkusen, a result that is not unexpected given Leverkusen’s ranking. Across their last five matches, Sevilla have averaged 13 shots per game in the sample provided, which is substantially higher than Bilbao’s recent output. Their 1-0 win over Utrecht and 2-1 over Nijmegen earlier in the summer showed they can grind out results against organised defences.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Athletic Bilbao | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 4 H2H) | 6 | 5 |
The last four meetings between these sides have produced a tight series: Athletic Bilbao won two, Sevilla won one, and one match ended in a draw. Bilbao won 3-2 and 1-0 in home fixtures, while Sevilla claimed a 2-1 win at San Mamés in the most recent meeting there. The aggregate goals tally of 11 across four games suggests a moderate scoring pattern, supporting the Under 2.5 lean.
🚨Check out our dedicated Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Athletic Bilbao the Favourite
- Moneyline Athletic Bilbao 1.74 | Sevilla 5.20
- Draw 3.65
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
Athletic Bilbao at 1.74 reflects a market that is confident in the home side without going as short as you might expect for a top-half La Liga team at San Mamés. Sevilla at 5.20 with Pinnacle and similar books represents poor value given they have already beaten a La Liga side this season. The draw at 3.65 is reasonable given these two sides have drawn once in their last four meetings. We would not be chasing the Sevilla moneyline at these prices, and the Bilbao win at 1.74 is the cleaner play when combined with the under goals market.
Sevilla. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Athletic Bilbao Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Alejandro Padilla Pérez
- DF: Yeray Álvarez, Aitor Paredes, Yuri Berchiche, Hugo Rincón Lumbreras
- MF: Peio Canales, Mikel Jauregizar, Oihan Sancet
- FW: Iñaki Williams, Gorka Guruzeta, Robert Navarro Muñoz
Terzic is likely to set up in a 4-2-3-1 with Canales and Jauregizar as the double pivot, offering defensive cover while Sancet operates as the number ten. Gorka Guruzeta leads the line, supported by Iñaki Williams and Navarro on the flanks. Aitor Paredes and Yeray Álvarez form a reliable centre-back pairing. Sancet is the key creative outlet and the player most capable of unlocking Sevilla’s defensive structure.
Sevilla Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Odysseas Vlachodimos
- DF: Arouna Sangante, Kike Salas, Juan Antonio Iglesias Sánchez, Joaquín Martínez Gauna
- MF: Lucien Agoumé, Gabriel Suazo, Jon Guridi
- FW: Miguel Sierra, Isaac Romero, Peque Fernández
Garcia Plaza will likely mirror the 4-2-3-1 shape, with Agoumé and Suazo as the midfield base. Guridi pushes forward as the advanced midfielder, having scored in the last match and showing the ability to arrive late into dangerous areas. Arouna Sangante was one of the standout defensive performers in the last fixture with three interceptions, and he will be important in containing Bilbao’s wide threats. Kike Salas carries a red card from the previous match, and his availability should be monitored ahead of kick-off.
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Athletic Bilbao. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Athletic Bilbao win this match. Their domestic form has been strong, their home record against Sevilla is positive across recent seasons, and the San Mamés atmosphere gives them a genuine edge in tight contests. Sevilla are a capable side and their early-season win shows they are not here just to make up the numbers, but travelling to Bilbao in the second round of the season is a tough ask. The head-to-head record shows these games tend to be close and low-scoring, which supports a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline in Bilbao’s favour. We predict Athletic Bilbao to win with under 2.5 goals in the match, and we would not be surprised if Sevilla fail to score given Bilbao’s pressing intensity and Sevilla’s pass accuracy issues in recent games.
