Levi Rothermund
The Dutch women head into this final group-stage fixture sitting third in League A Group B, needing a result to protect their qualification hopes. Poland, bottom with a single point, have nothing to lose and every reason to cause problems. What makes this match genuinely interesting is that these two teams already played out a 2-2 draw earlier in the campaign, which came as a major surprise given the bookmakers had priced Poland as heavy favourites for a draw at 67% at that time. The Netherlands have been inconsistent, dropping a painful 2-3 to Ireland in their most recent outing, while Poland conceded two to France in their last game without reply.
Keep an eye on Dominique Janssen, who scored in that Ireland loss and remains a constant threat from deep positions for the Netherlands. For Poland, Ewa Pajor registered three shots in the last match alone, the most of any Polish player, and she is capable of punishing any defensive lapse on a given night.
Hot stat: The Netherlands averaged 590 passes in their most recent match with a 474 pass accuracy, dwarfing Poland’s 244 passes at just 152 accuracy. That volume gap tells you everything about how dominant the Dutch expect to be in possession.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Women’s World Cup Qualification UEFA 2026, League A Group B |
| 🏟 Venue: | Brann Stadion, Bergen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 09.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Netherlands (w) vs Poland (w) prediction
The Netherlands are heavy favourites on paper, and honestly the stats back that up to a large degree. Their passing volume and shot output in recent games are substantially higher than Poland’s, and Poland have gone winless across all five group matches. We think a Netherlands win is the most sensible call here, though the odds at 1.15 offer almost no value whatsoever.
The better angle is the total goals market. Both teams scored in the previous meeting between these sides, and Poland’s Ewa Pajor is active enough in attack to threaten. The Dutch defense, which conceded three against Ireland and two against Poland earlier in the group, has shown it can be breached. Over 2.5 goals looks reasonable and the BTTS market deserves attention too.
Poland commit fouls at a higher rate, averaging 14 per match in their most recent game compared to the Netherlands’ nine. That tendency, combined with Poland’s low pass accuracy (152 out of 244), suggests a disjointed defensive structure that the Dutch midfield can exploit. The Netherlands’ corner count is also modest at four in their last match, so we would not go heavy on corners here.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Both Teams To Score – Yes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
The Netherlands have been inconsistent through this campaign. They beat France 2-1 and Ireland 2-1 in the opening double-header, then drew twice with France and Poland, and finally lost 2-3 to Ireland in their most recent match. That Ireland defeat is the sharpest concern. Andries Jonker’s side dominated possession but conceded three, and their defensive shape looked fragile. The 3-5-2 formation they have used gives them width and midfield control but can leave gaps in behind, something Ireland exploited effectively.
Poland’s campaign has been grim. Four losses and a single draw across five matches, with a goal difference of minus seven. Their most recent game was a 0-2 home loss to France. Ewa Pajor was their most active forward that day with three shots, but nothing converted. Nina Patalon’s 4-3-3 structure relies on pressing and transitions, but with a pass accuracy hovering around 62% in recent matches, the execution has been poor. Poland did manage a 2-2 draw against the Netherlands earlier, and that result shows they can compete when things go their way.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Netherlands (w) | Poland (w) |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 2 |
| Total shots | 20 | 8 |
| Corner kicks | 4 | 2 |
| Total fouls | 9 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 16 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Netherlands (w) vs Poland (w) stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Netherlands (w) the favourite
- Moneyline Netherlands (w) 1.15 | Poland (w) 11.00-12.00
- Draw 5.80-6.00
- Over/Under Over 2.5 – check your bookmaker | Under 2.5 – check your bookmaker
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes – check your bookmaker | No – check your bookmaker
The 1.15 on Netherlands is almost unplayable from a value standpoint. The bookmakers have them at 77% win probability, and while that is probably fair, the margin is too thin to chase. The draw at 5.80-6.00 is interesting given these teams already drew once this campaign, but we would not lean that way here. Poland at 11.00-12.00 is a big price for a team that has shown at least some ability to score, as proven in the earlier group meeting. We think the smarter money is on the goals markets rather than the moneyline.
Possible Starting Lineups
Netherlands (w) possible starting eleven
- GK: Lize Kop
- DF: Lynn Wilms, Veerle Buurman, Dominique Janssen
- MF: Damaris Egurrola, Victoria Pelova, Marisa Olislagers
- FW: Romee Leuchter, Ella Peddemors
The Netherlands are expected to line up in their familiar 3-5-2, with Lize Kop in goal after featuring in the most recent match. Dominique Janssen at the back is worth watching closely, she scored against Ireland and her ability to drive forward from defense adds an unpredictable dimension. Damaris Egurrola anchors the midfield and keeps the Dutch structure compact. Romee Leuchter and Ella Peddemors lead the line and will look to press Poland’s backline high.
Poland (w) possible starting eleven
- GK: Kinga Seweryn
- DF: Wiktoria Zieniewicz, Oliwia Wos, Paulina Dudek, Milena Kokosz
- MF: Martyna Wiankowska, Adriana Achcińska, Ewelina Kamczyk
- FW: Ewa Pajor, Weronika Zawistowska, Paulina Tomasiak
Poland are likely to stick with their 4-3-3. Kinga Seweryn starts in goal after making six saves in the last match, which may be the one stat that keeps Poland in games longer than expected. Ewa Pajor leads the attack and is the biggest individual threat Poland carry, capable of creating chances even in losing battles. Paulina Dudek and Wiktoria Zieniewicz will be busy defensively and have both shown yellow card tendencies, which could matter if the Dutch pressure mounts early.
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Poland (w). Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We expect the Netherlands to win this match, but not comfortably. Poland showed in the first meeting that they can score against this Dutch side, and Kinga Seweryn’s shot-stopping ability means the Netherlands will need volume to break through. The Dutch generate that volume easily, averaging 20 shots in recent matches compared to Poland’s eight, so the goals should come.
Poland’s defensive structure is fragile in transition, and their high foul count suggests they will struggle to contain the Dutch midfield for 90 minutes. We think goals from both sides is a realistic outcome, and Over 2.5 total goals is our primary tip. BTTS Yes is our secondary recommendation. The Netherlands win the match, maybe 2-1 or 3-1, but Poland find the net at least once.
