Alex MacQuoid
This second leg of the UEFA Conference League 2026/27 First Qualifying Round arrives with Liepaja holding a narrow 1-0 advantage from the first match played just days ago. A Montenegrin side travelling to Latvia knowing they need at least one goal to keep the tie alive, against a Latvian outfit that has been inconsistent domestically but managed to grind out the result when it mattered most in Europe. The aggregate picture makes this a proper contest, and the pressure sits almost entirely on Decic’s shoulders.
One player to watch is Djibril Gueye, Liepaja’s forward who has been active across all five recent matches and carries a threat in transition. On the Decic side, midfielder Petar Pavlicevic has featured in both recent games and will likely be tasked with driving the visitors forward in what is a must-attack situation for the Montenegrin side.
Hot stat: Liepaja have scored 7 goals across their last five matches while also picking up 2 red cards in that same span, pointing to a team that plays with intensity but can be exposed by their own aggression.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, First Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Tuško Polje, Podgorica |
| 🗓️ Date: | 15.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:30 CEST |
Liepaja vs Decic Prediction
Liepaja go into this match with the aggregate lead and the psychological edge. They’ve already shown they can contain Decic for 90 minutes, doing exactly that in the first leg. Decic are forced to chase the game from the opening whistle, which suits a Latvian side that has shown willingness to absorb pressure and hit on the counter. With the first leg ending 1-0 and Decic failing to register a single goal across their last two matches, the pressure on their attacking output is real.
We think Liepaja advancing over two legs is the most logical outcome here, and backing them on the Asian handicap or simply on the match result carries genuine value at the available prices. Decic’s last four matches have produced a total of just five goals across both teams combined, and their attacking stats from recent games are sparse at best. Liepaja’s defensive structure, while not flawless, has been solid enough in European competition.
Liepaja have committed 28 fouls across their last five matches with 4 yellow cards, a moderately aggressive style that can disrupt rhythm. Decic, with only 2 yellow cards and a very low foul count in the available data, appear to play a more patient game. That contrast in styles could actually work in Liepaja’s favour at home, where physicality and pressing can unsettle a team that prefers controlled build-up. Both sides line up in a 4-2-3-1, so the midfield battle will be tight, and set pieces from Liepaja’s 33 free kicks across recent games could be a genuine avenue to goal.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Liepaja to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Liepaja’s recent domestic form has been uneven. Three wins and four losses in their last seven matches, with no draws, tells you this is a team that swings between results rather than grinding out points consistently. Their most recent league outing ended in a 0-1 defeat to Auda, a team ranked far below them, which is a concern heading into a second leg where nerves could be a factor. Before that, they were beaten 0-4 by Riga FC, one of the strongest sides in Latvia. The 4-0 win over Ogre United and the 1-0 first leg victory over Decic represent the brighter moments. Coach Vladimir Vassiljev will need his side to be far more disciplined than they were in that Riga FC loss.
Decic arrive in worse shape than the standings suggest. Their last four matches have produced one win, one draw, and two losses, with the most relevant being the 0-1 first leg defeat to Liepaja. Before that, they beat Arsenal Tivat 4-1 and AF Elbasani 3-0, which shows they can score when the conditions are right. The 1-1 draw with Vllaznia and a 0-1 loss to Mornar earlier in the sequence reveal a team capable of dropping points against sides they should handle. Coach Nebojsa Jandric needs goals in this second leg, and their corner count of 20 across five games suggests they do push wide and look for deliveries into the box.
🚨Check out our dedicated Liepaja vs Decic stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Decic the Narrow Favourite
- Moneyline Liepaja 2.50 | Decic 2.55
- Draw 3.40
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The bookmakers have this almost exactly split, which is fair given the aggregate context. Decic need to win, which pushes their implied probability slightly higher, but Liepaja holding a 1-0 lead from the first leg is a massive structural advantage that those odds arguably don’t fully price in. At 2.50, Liepaja offer reasonable value for a team that just needs to avoid losing by two or more goals. The draw at 3.40 is also interesting since a 0-0 or 1-1 sends Liepaja through. Honestly, the value is on the Latvian side or the draw when you factor in aggregate.
Possible Starting Lineups
Liepaja Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Davis Oss
- DF: Vladislavs Sorokins, Kirils Iljins, Amilcar Silva, Marvin Martins
- MF: Chovanie Amatkarijo, Andriy Korobenko, Ingars Pulis
- FW: Djibril Gueye, Abiodun Ogunniyi, Kyvon Leidsman
Davis Oss is the first-choice goalkeeper with nine saves across five matches, a reliable presence between the posts. The back four picks itself based on appearances, with Marvin Martins worth noting given his two red cards in recent games, a disciplinary risk in a match where Liepaja cannot afford to go down to ten men. Chovanie Amatkarijo in midfield carries a goal contribution and will be important in keeping possession when Decic press high. Liepaja will almost certainly deploy their familiar 4-2-3-1, staying compact and looking to exploit transitions.
Decic Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Miloš Dragojević
- DF: Jonathan Dresaj, Leon Ujkaj
- MF: Matija Božanović, Petar Pavlicevic
Decic’s available roster data is limited to six players with confirmed appearances, which makes a full eleven projection unreliable. Based on what is available, Miloš Dragojević takes the gloves, with Dresaj and Ujkaj in defence and Božanović alongside Pavlicevic in midfield. Jandric will likely maintain the 4-2-3-1 structure and push his attacking players forward from early on given the aggregate deficit. Petar Pavlicevic’s energy in the middle could be key if Decic are to create anything meaningful.
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Decic. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Liepaja come into this second leg with everything working in their favour structurally. A 1-0 aggregate lead, home ground, and an opponent who has failed to score in their last two matches, including the first leg. Decic’s attacking output across recent games has been minimal, and their pass accuracy and possession data from the available stats is essentially absent, suggesting they have not dominated games the way their occasional big wins might imply.
We think Liepaja will control this match without necessarily being spectacular. A low-scoring game suits them perfectly. The most likely scenario is a tight affair where Liepaja score once and manage the result, or the match ends goalless which sends them through anyway. Decic are not without danger, their 4-1 win over Arsenal Tivat showed they can click, but that was a domestic cup context against a weaker side. European football at this level, away from home, needing to overturn a deficit, is a different challenge entirely.
Our prediction is Liepaja to win 1-0, mirroring the first leg, with under 2.5 goals the smart total bet. Maybe back the no BTTS option if available at a good price.
