Rafael Nogueira
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Vila Nova host Goias in a genuine Goiânia derby, with both clubs based in the same capital city and separated by table position rather than geography. Vila Nova sit third in the Série B standings on 38 points, chasing an automatic promotion spot, while Goias sit twelfth on 28 points after a mixed run of results. The interesting wrinkle here: Goias have scored just three goals across their last five matches despite completing over 86% of their passes, a possession-heavy side that simply cannot finish. Vila Nova, by contrast, have netted ten in their last five, but their form has swung wildly, from a 6-0 demolition of Ponte Preta to a 0-5 collapse against Athletic Club days later.
Watch André Luís for Vila Nova, he has scored twice and assisted once in the last five outings and leads the forward line’s shot count with six attempts. On the Goias side, Carlos Eduardo de Sousa Leopoldino stands out with thirteen shots in five matches, easily the most of any player from either squad, yet he has just one goal to show for it, a sign of Goias’ finishing problem this season.
Hot stat: Vila Nova scored six unanswered goals against Ponte Preta in their fourth-most recent fixture, then shipped five without reply to Athletic Club in their very next game, the single widest swing in form of either team this season.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiania |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:30 CEST |
Vila Nova vs Goias prediction
We predict Vila Nova to win this derby, backed by home advantage and a much sharper attack. Vila Nova sit five places and ten points above Goias, and their last-five shot count of 70 dwarfs Goias’ 53. Goias’ away form has been the bigger concern, three defeats in their last five outings, and their inability to convert possession into goals makes them vulnerable against a Vila Nova side that scored ten goals in the same span.
Vila Nova commit more fouls per game (72 over five matches versus 63 for Goias) and pick up slightly fewer yellow cards, 8 against Goias’ 9, suggesting a physical but not overly reckless approach from the hosts. Goias hold a clear passing edge, 87% accuracy against Vila Nova’s 80%, which points to a patient, possession-based Goias approach that rarely translates into clear chances. That combination, Vila Nova’s directness against Goias’ sterile possession, favors the home side finding the net first and often.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Vila Nova to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Vila Nova’s most recent match ended in a stunning 0-5 defeat to Athletic Club, a heavy blow that snapped an otherwise positive streak. Before that shock, the run read win, draw, win, win, including a 2-0 defeat of Ceara, a scoreless draw with Operario PR, a 6-0 thrashing of Ponte Preta, and a 2-0 win over Atletico Goianiense. Four positive results in five games, with the Athletic Club scoreline standing out as a clear outlier against a much stronger opponent rated far above the rest of this sample.
Goias’ last match brought a narrow 0-1 loss to Fortaleza, continuing a stretch of low output. That defeat followed a 2-1 win over Sao Bernardo, a 1-1 draw with Cuiaba, a 0-1 loss to Juventude, and a 0-1 loss to Criciuma. Three defeats in five, with only one win, painting a picture of a side that struggles to break down organized defenses even when dominating the ball, exactly the profile we expect Vila Nova to exploit on home turf.
🚨Check out our dedicated Vila Nova vs Goias stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Vila Nova the favourite
- Moneyline Vila Nova 1.96 | Goias 4.00
- Draw 3.20
Bookmakers price Vila Nova around 51% implied probability against Goias’ roughly 25%, with the draw sitting near 24%. Given Vila Nova’s superior league position and attacking output this season, odds close to 2.00 on the home win look generous, we rate this as fair value for anyone backing the hosts. The gap between the two sides in recent form supports leaning toward Vila Nova rather than the draw or an upset on the road.
Possible Starting Lineups
Vila Nova possible starting eleven
- GK: Helton Leite
- DF: Tiago Pagnussat, Hayner, Igor Cariús, Jonathan Aparecido de Oliveira
- MF: Marquinhos Gabriel, Willian Maranhão, Nathan Camargo, Janderson, Everton Galdino
- FW: André Luís
Guto Ferreira sticks with the 4-2-3-1 that has featured across the last five matches. Helton Leite has started every game and remains undisputed between the posts. André Luís leads the line as the most productive forward, with Janderson and Everton Galdino rotating into wide attacking roles to support him.
Goias possible starting eleven
- GK: Tadeu Antonio Ferreira
- DF: Lucas Ribeiro, Luiz Felipe, Ramon Menezes, Marcos Vinicius
- MF: Filipe Machado, João Paulo Ferreira Lourenço, Jean Carlos, Wellington Rato, Geirton Marques Aires
- FW: Carlos Eduardo de Sousa Leopoldino
Mozart also favors a 4-2-3-1 shape. Filipe Machado and João Paulo Ferreira Lourenço anchor the midfield with the highest pass volumes on the roster, while Carlos Eduardo de Sousa Leopoldino gets the nod up top as the player generating the most shots, even if his conversion rate has been poor this season.
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Vila Nova. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our punters team backs Vila Nova to take all three points on home soil. The gap in league position, ten points and nine places, reflects a real gulf in quality this season, and Goias’ scoring drought on the road, just three goals in five matches, makes them a shaky bet to keep pace. Vila Nova’s attack has produced ten goals and 70 shots in the same window, and even accounting for the Athletic Club blip, the underlying data favors the hosts comfortably. Perhaps the safest angle here is Vila Nova to win combined with over 2.5 total goals, though the bolder value sits with a clean sheet for the home side given how toothless Goias have looked in front of goal lately.
