Rafael Nogueira
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Sport Recife welcome Ponte Preta to Ilha do Retiro in a fixture that looks one-sided on paper. Sport sit fifth in the table with 35 points from 22 games, while Ponte Preta anchor the bottom of Série B with just 10 points from 22 matches. The number that stands out here: Ponte Preta have won zero of their last six league games, a run that includes a 6-0 thrashing against Vila Nova. Sport Recife, by contrast, split their last six 3-3 between wins and losses, showing they are far from flawless but still a class above the visitors.
Diego Hernandez has been Sport Recife’s sharpest weapon lately, netting 3 goals and adding an assist across the last five matches while firing 18 shots, more than any teammate. David da Hora carries Ponte Preta’s attacking hopes, the only forward in their squad data with a recorded assist in that stretch, though his side has managed just a single goal in five games. The gap between the two sides’ cutting edge is stark and it shapes our entire read on this match.
Hot stat: Sport Recife scored 8 goals in their last five matches. Ponte Preta scored 1. That gap alone tells most of the story going into Thursday’s kickoff.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Ilha do Retiro, Recife |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:30 CEST |
Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta prediction
We predict a comfortable Sport Recife win, and the value sits not on the moneyline itself but on the handicap and goals markets. At odds around 1.12-1.15 for a straight home win there is little juice left, but Sport Recife covering a -1.5 Asian Handicap offers a fairer price given Ponte Preta’s collapse on the road, where they have shipped 45 goals in 22 league games this season.
Sport Recife’s pass accuracy sits noticeably higher than Ponte Preta’s over the last five matches, and they have committed fewer fouls, 59 against 78, while picking up far fewer yellow cards, 4 compared to 10. That discipline gap, combined with Ponte Preta’s one red card in the sample, suggests the visitors may struggle to keep men on the pitch and organised defensively for 90 minutes. Ponte Preta’s higher foul count and card tally often signal a side chasing the game and making desperate challenges, exactly the pattern we expect here.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Sport Recife -1.5 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Sport Recife’s last five results read L-L-W-L-W, a genuinely mixed run for a team sitting comfortably in mid-table. Their most recent outing ended 1-2 against Ceara, a side ranked well outside the promotion picture, exposing some fragility at the back despite the attacking talent up front. Still, wins over America MG (3-0) and Londrina (2-1) inside that same stretch show Sport can be ruthless against weaker opposition, which bodes well against a Ponte Preta side even further down the table.
Ponte Preta’s recent form is bleak. Their last five games produced four losses and one draw, with the most recent match a 0-2 defeat to Sao Bernardo. Before that came back-to-back 0-2 losses and a 0-6 hammering by Vila Nova, a run that has them conceding at will and scoring almost nothing. Zero wins in six league games this month underlines a squad low on confidence heading into a tough away trip.
🚨Check out our dedicated Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Sport Recife the favourite
- Moneyline Sport Recife 1.13 | Ponte Preta 17.46
- Draw 8.45
Bookmakers price Sport Recife as roughly an 82% chance to win, a figure that lines up with the recent form gap between the two clubs. The draw price near 8.45 reflects how rarely a team this far adrift, like Ponte Preta, manages to hold a superior home side. We see little reason to fight the market direction here, though we lean toward the handicap line for better returns rather than the plain moneyline.
Possible Starting Lineups
Sport Recife possible starting eleven
- GK: Thiago
- DF: Marcelo Benevenuto, Habraão Lincon do Nascimento Saraiva, Kayky Almeida, Claudinho
- MF: Zé Gabriel, Willian Oliveira, Juan
- FW: Diego Hernandez, Pedro Henrique Perotti, Clayson Henrique da Silva Vieira
Thiago has started all five recent games in goal and racked up 15 saves, giving him the edge over Brenno. The back four of Benevenuto, Habraão, Kayky and Claudinho has featured in almost every match this stretch. Up top, Diego Hernandez leads the goal charts and should start centrally in the 4-2-3-1, flanked by Perotti and Clayson, both good for goals and creativity this season.
Ponte Preta possible starting eleven
- DF: Lucas Cunha, Danilo Barcelos
- MF: André da Silva Lima, Elvis, Murilo Henrique Cavalcante
- FW: David da Hora
Ponte Preta’s constant rotation under Gilson Kleina makes a full lineup hard to project with confidence. Lucas Cunha and André da Silva Lima have logged the most minutes among the available data and should anchor the base of a 4-2-3-1. David da Hora remains their most involved attacker, providing the only recorded assist in this attacking group, though the goal tally across the squad stays worryingly low heading into Recife.
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Sport Recife. Source: Official X/Twitter. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our punters team backs Sport Recife to win comfortably, perhaps by two goals or more, given Ponte Preta’s total inability to keep clean sheets or find the net on the road this season. The handicap and Over 2.5 goals combination gives better value than the outright moneyline, and with Ponte Preta conceding heavily in almost every away fixture recently, this looks like a fixture where the home side’s attack should get its rewards early. To be honest, the only concern for backers is Sport Recife’s own inconsistency, but even their worst recent losses came against sides stronger than the one arriving in Recife this week.
