Liam Duckstein
Kenya and Lesotho meet again at Brann Stadion in Bergen, Norway, just days after their 1-1 draw in the opening round of the June International Friendly phase. That first encounter already told us plenty about what to expect from this rematch. Both sides are locked at one point each in the standings, and with a second chance to separate themselves, the tactical stakes are real despite the friendly context. Benni McCarthy’s Kenya side will carry slight favourite status, though Lesotho’s defensive solidity under Leslie Notsi made life uncomfortable in that first meeting.
Two players to watch in this fixture are Richard Odada for Kenya and Thabo Makhele for Lesotho. Odada operates in central midfield and has picked up two yellow cards across the last two matches, which signals both his influence and his tendency to push the limits physically. Makhele is arguably the standout performer from the Lesotho camp, having scored both of their goals across the previous two matches, making him the most dangerous attacking threat on the pitch.
Hot stat: Kenya generated 20 total shots across their last five matches compared to Lesotho’s 8, yet both sides ended up with identical goal tallies of 2. That efficiency gap between Kenya’s shot volume and their conversion rate is a key factor to monitor in this match.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Friendly 2026, June Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Brann Stadion, Bergen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 07.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:00 CEST |
Kenya vs Lesotho Prediction
Given the 1-1 draw in their first meeting just days ago, the most value here points toward another low-scoring, tight encounter. Kenya hold the statistical edge in attacking volume, but their conversion numbers do not justify confidence in a comfortable home win. Lesotho showed they can absorb pressure and strike on the counter, particularly through Makhele.
We predict a Kenya win by a narrow margin. The bookmakers have shifted from their pre-first-match expectations, where Lesotho were actually seen as slight favourites at 53%, to now pricing Kenya as the more likely winner. That shift reflects what the data showed: Kenya controlled more of the match and created more chances.
Kenya’s 4-2-3-1 setup tends to generate good wide play and decent corner kick numbers, with 14 corners across their last five matches compared to Lesotho’s 6. That corner dominance makes the over on corners a reasonable secondary angle. Lesotho’s 6 yellow cards to Kenya’s 4 across the same period also suggests Lesotho’s players foul more frequently, which could see Kenya earn free kicks in dangerous positions.
Lesotho’s style under Notsi is compact and disciplined, but their attacking output is genuinely low. Their 4-3-3 shape requires a high press that they have struggled to maintain consistently, especially away from home. The neutral venue in Bergen removes some of that home comfort factor for both sides, though Kenya have shown more quality in recent form over a longer sample.
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | Kenya to win & Under 3.5 Goals |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Kenya arrive into this match off the back of a 1-1 draw with Lesotho in the previous round, and that result sits within a broader 2026 campaign where they have won just one of three matches. Their longer-term form string of wwdwwllwwllldwd shows a team capable of putting together winning runs but prone to inconsistency. Earlier in the year, they suffered an 8-0 defeat to Senegal, which exposes the ceiling of their defensive structure against higher-quality opposition. Against weaker sides, such as their 3-0 win over Grenada, they look far more composed. Benni McCarthy will look to exploit Kenya’s superior shot creation against a Lesotho side that conceded from open play in the last meeting.
Lesotho’s recent form is harder to read positively. Their form string of wldwlllllwdldwd shows prolonged losing runs with only occasional bright spots. In the June phase, they drew 0-0 and 0-0 with Seychelles before the 1-1 result against Kenya. Earlier results against Malawi, where they lost 1-0 and drew 0-0, suggest they struggle to score against organised defences. The goals in the Kenya match, both scored by Makhele, came from moments of individual quality rather than sustained team build-up. Leslie Notsi’s 4-3-3 asks his wingers to contribute defensively, which limits their output going forward and keeps the team tight but rarely dangerous.
🚨 Check out our dedicated Kenya vs Lesotho stats page for more info.
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Kenya the Favourite
- Moneyline Kenya 1.72–1.83 | Lesotho 4.40–5.00
- Draw 3.10–3.40
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
Kenya’s odds in the 1.72–1.83 range reflect a reasonable favourite status, and the value is fair rather than exceptional. The best price available sits at William Hill at 1.83, which is worth targeting if you back Kenya to win. The draw at 3.10–3.40 carries some appeal given the 1-1 outcome in the first meeting, and the previous bookmaker expectation for this exact fixture actually placed the draw as the most likely outcome at 53%. The swing toward Kenya as favourites now represents a genuine shift in expectation based on observed performance. Lesotho at 4.40–5.00 feels correctly priced given their attacking limitations.
Possible Starting Lineups
Kenya Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Farouk Shikalo
- DF: Erick Otieno, Mohammed Bajaber
- MF: Richard Odada, Amos Nondi
Kenya are expected to line up in their preferred 4-2-3-1 formation. Farouk Shikalo gets the nod in goal based on his consistent appearances across the last two matches. Richard Odada is the player to watch most closely in midfield: he provides defensive cover and drives forward, though his two yellow cards in recent matches mean he will need to manage his aggression carefully. Erick Otieno offers reliability at right back. Mohammed Bajaber has logged the most minutes among the tracked players and will likely feature in a central defensive role. Benni McCarthy will want his wide players to stretch Lesotho’s compact 4-3-3 and generate the corner kick volume Kenya have shown they are capable of.
Lesotho Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Sekhoane Moerane
- DF: Thabo Makhele, M. Makhetha, R. Mokokoana, Fusi Matlabe
- MF: Lehlohonolo Fothoane, Neo Mokhachane
- FW: Koete Mohloai, Lemohang Lintša
Lesotho will likely deploy their 4-3-3 shape with Sekhoane Moerane in goal. The back four writes itself based on playing time data, with Makhele, Makhetha, Mokokoana and Matlabe all featuring heavily. Thabo Makhele is the standout name here: he scored both of Lesotho’s goals in the previous two matches and offers a threat that Kenya’s defence cannot afford to ignore. Makhetha and Mohloai both carry yellow card records, so Lesotho risk going down to ten men if discipline slips. Fothoane anchors the midfield with 180 minutes already played in this phase. Leslie Notsi will ask his side to press early and disrupt Kenya’s build-up, though sustaining that intensity for a full match has been a challenge for this squad.
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Lesotho. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
This rematch carries all the hallmarks of a tight, low-scoring affair. Kenya’s superior shot volume and corner kick generation point toward them controlling the match territorially, and we predict Kenya to edge a narrow win. Their 20 shots across the last five matches against Lesotho’s 8 is a significant gap, and Benni McCarthy’s 4-2-3-1 system gives them more structural flexibility in attack.
To be honest, the draw cannot be dismissed. Lesotho proved in the first meeting that they can defend deep and threaten on the break through Makhele. Their 4-3-3 is designed to frustrate, and it largely did exactly that. Koete Mohloai’s presence up front adds a physical dimension that Kenya’s centre-backs will need to handle.
Our primary tip is Kenya to win and under 2.5 goals. The match is unlikely to open up significantly, and both teams have shown they are more comfortable keeping things tight than trading goals freely. The corner market also deserves attention: Kenya’s tendency to dominate wide areas makes over 7.5 corners a solid secondary play at reasonable value.
