Hull vs Chelsea Prediction: 13.02.2026 FA Cup 2025/26

As the FA Cup’s Round of 32 beckons, Hull City face a mammoth challenge at MKM Stadium, hosting a resolute Chelsea side. The contrast could hardly be sharper: an ambitious Hull, fresh off a strong run in the Championship, against a Chelsea team with European pedigree and genuine trophy ambitions. But here’s a twist often overlooked — both managers, Sergej Jakirovic and Liam Rosenior, are tacticians who’ve demonstrated a talent for springing surprises in cup competitions. With Chelsea boasting heavy odds but haunted by moments of inconsistency, could this be a classic cup tie in the making?

Two players set to shape the match’s tempo stand out. For Hull, Oliver McBurnie has spearheaded their attack with his robust presence and a recent burst of goals. On the Chelsea side, the battle-hardened playmaker Cole Palmer, fresh from four goals and three assists in his last five matches, is the live wire who can unlock any defence. Their influence around the box — whether finishing moves or engineering them — will be pivotal. Between the sticks, two keepers with different stories: Ivor Pandur, Hull’s anchor and shot-stopper, faces off against the experienced Robert Sanchez, whose command of the Chelsea area has calmed many a storm.

Here’s your hot stat: Chelsea have tallied an impressive 11 goals across their last five, with Palmer and João Pedro contributing the lion’s share; a sign their offensive rhythm is finding sharp focus at just the right time.

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Hull vs Chelsea prediction

With bookmakers offering Chelsea as clear favourites (averaging just above 1.3 for the away win), most analytical roads point to a Chelsea progression. Their attacking form, talented midfield, and the cutting edge of Palmer and João Pedro set them apart. However, cup ties possess a legacy of shocks, and Hull’s current form, especially at home, keeps hope alive. Hull have conceded only four goals in their last five at the MKM and tend to press high with a 4-2-3-1, making them adept at exploiting lapses.

Put simply, Chelsea’s assertive possession game (with ~91 percent pass accuracy in recent outings) should see them control proceedings. They’re expected to dictate the tempo, relying on sharp transitions and quick interchanges, but must manage their disciplinary line — both sides have accrued 12 yellow cards each in their last five and average over 11 fouls per game, hinting at a physical encounter where set-pieces could play a decisive role. Hull, with a similar tactical structure, lean on directness and transition play, which may yield a goal if Chelsea’s backline switch off.

Team Analysis

Hull’s recent form reads impressively for a Championship outfit: five wins in their last seven, with notable scalps including Preston and Swansea. The 3-0 win over Preston showcased their blend of steel and invention — Oliver McBurnie’s hat trick led the way, supported by dynamic midfield runs from Regan Slater. Yet, their 2-3 home loss to Bristol City exposed defensive vulnerabilities under sustained pressure. They’ve scored eight in their last five, but the manner in which they’ve scrambled at the back (conceding soft goals late) is a concern against Premier League quality.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have navigated a typically busy winter. Most recently, a 2-2 draw with Leeds left fans with mixed emotions: bright attacking sequences, led by Palmer and João Pedro, but defensive lapses cost them the three points. Still, the 3-1 dispatching of Wolves and 3-2 wins over Napoli and West Ham underline their offensive muscle. The loss to Arsenal was a wake-up call, sharpening their focus entering the FA Cup. Eleven goals in the last five (with four from Palmer) signal a side bristling with attacking threat — but can they keep it tidy at the back with the physicality of Hull looming?

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Hull vs Chelsea stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Chelsea the favourite

• Moneyline Hull 8.50 | Chelsea 1.32
• Draw 5.35
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.75 | Under 2.5 2.01
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.15 | No 1.60

To be frank, these odds mirror bookies’ faith in Chelsea’s superiority. Hull, given between 7.00 and 9.80 odds, are resolute underdogs, and for good reason: squad depth, quality, and form tip in Chelsea’s favour. The draw market sits at 5.20-6.00, effectively reflecting the unlikelihood of a stalemate in cup format, while the value in over 2.5 goals hinges on these teams’ attack-minded tendencies and recent prolific returns. The market expects at least a two-goal margin, with BTTS slightly favoured against, but the data shows Hull could just as easily nick a goal if Chelsea relax.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Hull possible starting eleven

This eleven reflects Hull’s settled unit in their last outings. Pandur keeps goal behind a reliable back four, while Slater’s movement and Lundstram’s positioning anchor midfield. Up front, McBurnie spearheads the line, with Millar and Gelhardt providing mobility and intent in the wide areas. Expect the 4-2-3-1, which has offered balance but also enough attacking flair to unsettle bigger rivals. McBurnie is the one to watch — three goals in his last five, brimming with confidence.

Chelsea possible starting eleven

Rosenior should stay loyal to his recent 4-2-3-1 set-up, leveraging the technical ability of Palmer (crucial as a No. 10) and the pace of Neto and João Pedro. Sanchez is the safe pair of hands behind a versatile and aggressive defensive line. Enzo brings top-tier ball distribution, while Caicedo cleans up defensively. Palmer and João Pedro are the creative axis — both capable of turning half-chances into goals. Look for Chelsea to start aggressively, seeking an early breakthrough to snuff out any cup magic.

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My take on the Match

Our main pick is Chelsea to win comfortably, most likely by a multi-goal margin. The gulf in squad strength, tactical acumen, and recent scoring form is simply too wide for Hull to bridge unless Chelsea drastically underperform. That said, Hull’s spirit and offensive output make a consolation goal plausible, and their discipline in the midfield could cause Chelsea a few headaches in transitions. Expect Chelsea to seize the initiative early — if they score first, they’ll likely go on to dominate and control the match till the final whistle. For Hull, the cup adventure could still shine with a memorable first-half burst or a late goal for the faithful at MKM.

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