Fiorentina vs Como Prediction: 27.01.2026 Coppa Italia

Coppa Italia nights in Florence rarely lack intrigue, and the Round of 16 encounter between Fiorentina and Como is set to provide plenty of talking points for neutral observers and devoted fans alike. Both clubs approach this fixture with contrasting fortunes: Fiorentina, navigating a somewhat turbulent run, and Como, buoyed by a staggering upturn in form under the stewardship of Cesc Fàbregas, a man whose midfield artistry is now translating into tactical nous from the dugout. Paolo Vanoli’s Fiorentina will be banking on home advantage at the storied Stadio Artemio Franchi, but with both managers fielding inventive lineups and star talents, expect a match rich in both quality and drama.

Keep your eyes peeled for two influential performers: Fiorentina’s Albert Gudmundsson whose ability to orchestrate plays and unlock defenses often becomes the Viola’s creative heartbeat and Como’s prolific forward Anastasios Douvikas, whose movement off the shoulder and clinical finishing have propelled Como into dark horse territory this season. These two could very well dictate the contest’s major moments, a narrative running right through this cup tie.

A “hot stat” sets the tone for this clash: Como have notched an imposing 14 goals in their last five fixtures, while Fiorentina’s defense has struggled to keep clean sheets, conceding in each of their last five.

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Fiorentina vs Como prediction

While the bookies rate Como as slight favourites (and who could blame them, with a 40% chance versus Fiorentina’s 32%), this tie is perhaps closer on the pitch than numbers alone might indicate. The best value bet here is to back “Both Teams To Score” yes. Here’s the thinking: Como have bagged 14 goals in their last five outings, led by the in-form Douvikas and a supporting midfield cast that asks questions of opposition defences. On the other end, Fiorentina, despite their inconsistent form, retain both enough attacking class (averaging just under 1.5 goals per match in their last five) and a noted vulnerability at the back.

Both sides rack up a fair tally of fouls expect fiery midfield tussles, as evidenced by Fiorentina (59 fouls in the last five), and Como (52 fouls). Neither side is shy of a yellow card either, but discipline has just been tight enough to avoid any recent reds. In terms of ball possession, Como’s higher pass count and accuracy (2999 passes at 89% accuracy) suggest a more controlled, dominant style, while Fiorentina (2381 passes at 87% accuracy) lean into transitional attacks. All in all, the tactical contrast and proven goalscoring credentials point to an open, eventful game with at least one goal from each side!

Team Analysis

Fiorentina Recent Form:

Fiorentina have been muddling through a challenging run, typified by their last five: a hardworking 1-2 defeat to Cagliari, a gutsy 2-1 triumph over Bologna, a sturdy 1-1 draw with Milan, a similarly tense 2-2 outing against Lazio, and a narrow 1-0 win against Cremonese. In these matches, the Viola have shown flashes of attacking promise, particularly through Gudmundsson’s playmaking and Mandragora’s late runs into the area. Their main Achilles’ heel has been defensive lapses conceding six in five, sometimes through sheer lapses in concentration. Nevertheless, the home crowd in Florence often spurs a more dogged, intense performance from Vanoli’s side.

Como Recent Form:

Como’s trajectory under Fàbregas is one of the league’s most compelling. Their last five fixtures have produced four wins and a solitary loss: a thunderous 6-0 hammering of Torino, a stylish 3-0 dispatching of Lazio, a momentary blip in a 1-3 defeat to Milan, a controlled 1-1 draw at Bologna, and a commanding 3-0 victory over Pisa. Much of Como’s firepower comes from their dynamic midfield Baturina and Paz controlling the tempo, with Douvikas a constant menace up top. Their discipline, both with and without the ball, has resulted in steady passing and quick transitions, and their 14-goal tally in five matches is not to be sniffed at.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Fiorentina vs Como stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Como the favourite

• Moneyline Fiorentina 3.25 | Como 2.30
• Draw 3.40
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.71
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.95 | No 1.75

The market swings toward Como isn’t surprising given their sharper form and recent head-to-head success a 2-1 away win and a commanding 2-0 in their last three head-to-head meetings. The relatively tight odds on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals reflect the attacking prowess on display, with punters siding cautiously with Como’s consistency yet mindful that Fiorentina at home should never be entirely discounted.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Fiorentina possible starting eleven

Expect Paolo Vanoli’s Fiorentina to line up in a familiar 4-2-3-1, built on De Gea’s stability at the back and the overlapping ability of Gosens down the left. Mandragora brings energy and late runs, while Gudmundsson will be tasked with weaving attacks and providing for Kean and Piccoli. Fagioli’s composure and vision should anchor the midfield, with Ndour adding box-to-box thrust. One to watch? Gudmundsson is always capable of a game-changing spark, especially with his keen eye for threading a final ball.

Como possible starting eleven

Fàbregas is likely to stick with the now-trusted 3-5-2. Butez has proven a steady hand, with Kempf marshalling the central trio. Caqueret and Perrone anchor the midfield, ensuring creative transitions, ably assisted by the technically gifted Baturina and Da Cunha. Up front, Douvikas’s movement is simply relentless, flanked in support by Baturina’s surging runs from deep Como’s goalscoring form is testimony to this setup. Be prepared for rapid switches in play and smart exploitation of any spaces left by the Fiorentina fullbacks.

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The Verdict

From a supporter’s and analyst’s perspective, it’s difficult not to be swept up by Como’s story, but as anyone who cherishes cup football knows, the Franchi is never an easy place to visit, especially in a knockout scenario. Bar a defensive masterclass or a moment of individual brilliance for Fiorentina, Como’s blend of form, goal threat, and tactical discipline should see them edge this tie. I’m backing a 2-1 win for Como expect nervy moments, flurries of attacking football, and almost certainly, goals at both ends. Regardless of the result, both clubs look set for memorable campaigns this fixture could be another Coppa Italia classic in the making!

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