Deportivo Maipu vs Gimnasia y Tiro Prediction: 21.06.2026 Primera Nacional

Deportivo Maipu host Gimnasia y Tiro at the Estadio Club Deportivo Maipu on June 21, 2026 in a mid-table Primera Nacional clash that carries more weight than the standings suggest. Both sides sit on 20 points, but Maipu have played the same number of games and own the superior goal difference by a narrow margin, making this a direct six-pointer in the race to avoid the lower half of the table. Maipu have been inconsistent at home, winning only 6 of their 17 league games, yet they enter with home advantage against a Gimnasia y Tiro side that has taken just one win from their last five matches. Midfielder Marcelo Eggel is the standout name for Maipu, contributing both a goal and an assist across his last four appearances, while for the visitors, Tiago Banega has quietly netted once in his last four outings and provides the creative threat from midfield that Gimnasia y Tiro rely on heavily.

Hot stat: Gimnasia y Tiro have accumulated 10 yellow cards across their last five matches compared to Maipu’s 6, pointing to a side that tends to play on the edge defensively, which could become a factor in a tight, physical encounter.

Deportivo Maipu vs Gimnasia y Tiro Prediction

Maipu’s recent form reads poorly at first glance, with three losses in five games, but two of those defeats came against Tristan Suarez and Club Atletico Guemes, both sides sitting in the top half of the table. Their win over Chacarita Juniors showed they can produce when the opposition is at a comparable level. Gimnasia y Tiro, meanwhile, have drawn two and lost one in their last three, picking up wins only against Midland and San Martin Tucuman. Neither side has been convincing in attack, combining for just seven goals across their last five matches each.

We predict a low-scoring, contested match. Maipu’s home record gives them a slight edge, and the bookmakers’ 46% win probability for the hosts aligns with the form differential. Gimnasia y Tiro’s disciplinary record, 10 yellows and one red card in five matches, suggests they defend with aggression, which tends to produce a compact, foul-heavy game rather than an open one. Maipu generate more corner activity, 17 corners to Gimnasia’s 7 in the last five matches, which reflects a more proactive attacking approach, even if end product has been limited.

• We predict Deportivo Maipu to win or draw (double chance Home/Draw)
• Under 2.5 goals, given both teams have scored only 4 and 3 goals respectively across their last five matches
• Corners over 8.5, driven by Maipu’s attacking width in their 4-4-2 setup

Team Analysis

Deportivo Maipu’s last five matches have been a mixed bag. They beat Nueva Chicago 1-0 and Chacarita Juniors 3-2, but dropped points against San Martin SJ (1-2), Club Atletico Guemes (0-1), and Tristan Suarez (0-1). The Chacarita win stands out, with three goals in a single game being their most productive output of the stretch, yet they conceded two in return. Defensively, they have been leaky, conceding in four of five games. Eggel’s contributions in the middle of the park are the main creative engine, and Gaston Mansilla adds an assist to his name, giving the midfield some depth in build-up play. Lisandro Cabrera leads the forward line but has yet to register a goal in four appearances, which is a concern for Maipu’s attacking output.

Gimnasia y Tiro’s last five games tell a story of narrow margins. They beat Midland 1-0 and San Martin Tucuman 1-0, drew with Atletico Atlanta and Gimnasia Jujuy, both 1-1, and lost to Quilmes 0-1. Three of their five results were decided by a single goal, pointing to a side that grinds matches down rather than opens them up. Roberto Birge and L. Gordillo each scored once in this period, and Tiago Banega adds another goal, giving them three different scorers, which shows some spread in their attacking threat. Manuel Guanini, however, carries two yellow cards and a red across four appearances, making him a liability at the back, particularly in a match where Maipu will look to exploit the flanks with their wider 4-4-2 shape.

🚨 Check out our dedicated Deportivo Maipu vs Gimnasia y Tiro stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Deportivo Maipu the Favourite

• Moneyline Deportivo Maipu 2.00 | Gimnasia y Tiro 3.60
• Draw 2.89

The odds from Bovada and Rocketplay sit Maipu at 2.00, which represents reasonable value given their home advantage and the fact that Gimnasia y Tiro have won just once in their last four away fixtures. The draw at 2.89-2.90 is worth consideration given the H2H pattern of 1-0 results, but the double chance on Maipu offers a safer route. Gimnasia y Tiro at 3.58-3.65 feels about right given their away form and disciplinary fragility.

Possible Starting Lineups

Deportivo Maipu Possible Starting Eleven

Maipu line up in their familiar 4-4-2 shape under Mariano Echeverria, with Peraggini between the posts. Eggel is the player to watch in the middle, having combined a goal and an assist in recent weeks, and Mansilla provides the passing link in the center of the park. Faggioli has featured in three of the last five games at the back and is expected to continue. Cabrera leads the line and will need to convert chances if Maipu are to take the three points, as his goal drought in the last four games is a concern. The full back positions will need filling from the extended squad given limited data available.

Gimnasia y Tiro Possible Starting Eleven

Juan Manuel Azconzábal sets Gimnasia y Tiro up in a 4-4-2 as well, making this a mirror tactical battle in the middle of the park. Guanini is the most prominent name at the back but carries a red card risk given his disciplinary record across four games. Banega and Birge are the key creative and goal-scoring outlets from midfield, and Gordillo provides pace and a goal threat up front. Sivetti’s consistent presence across four matches in 342 minutes suggests he anchors the center of midfield and will be tasked with limiting Eggel’s influence for the home side.

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The Verdict

Both sides sit level on points, but Maipu’s home record and their 17 corners in the last five games compared to Gimnasia’s 7 point to a team that pushes forward with more intent on their own ground. Gimnasia y Tiro’s defensive aggression, reflected in their yellow card count and a red card from Guanini, creates vulnerability on the flanks that Maipu’s wide midfield can target. The H2H record shows two consecutive 1-0 results, and the combined five-match goal tallies of 4 and 3 goals respectively point firmly toward a tight, low-scoring game. We predict a 1-0 Deportivo Maipu home win, with the double chance covering the draw as an alternative angle for cautious bettors.

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