Liam Duckstein
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Hajduk Split host Rakow Czestochowa at Stadion Poljud in the first leg of their UEFA Conference League 2026/27 Playoff tie. The Croatian side enters as the favorite on home soil, backed by a strong recent run of results, while Rakow arrive with something to prove after a turbulent stretch in Polish league play. What makes this tie particularly interesting is the contrast in firepower: Hajduk have scored 14 goals across their last five matches, compared to Rakow’s seven in the same period.
Two players stand out heading into this first leg. Rokas Pukstas has been exceptional for Hajduk Split, contributing three goals and an assist across five recent matches while also racking up 11 shots and strong midfield presence. For Rakow, Mahir Emreli leads the attacking threat with a goal, an assist, and 10 shots in five games, making him the most dangerous outlet in Dawid Kroczek’s squad.
The hot stat going into this match: Hajduk Split scored 14 goals in their last five games, with Michele Šego netting four of them. That kind of output at Poljud is a serious warning for any visiting defense.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27 – Playoffs |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Poljud, Split |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Hajduk Split vs Rakow Prediction
We predict a Hajduk Split win in this first leg. The home side carries a clear edge in attacking output and has been more consistent over the past month, winning four of their last seven matches. Rakow, by contrast, won just three of their seven recent games and lost three, including a 1-2 defeat to Cracovia in their most recent outing. Playing at Poljud, where Hajduk enjoy strong crowd support, the Croatian side should be able to control large portions of this match.
Rakow’s defensive structure deserves credit, with 20 interceptions in the last five games compared to Hajduk’s 16. Their disciplined shape could keep things tight for stretches. To be honest, though, their attacking output simply does not match Hajduk’s, and the gap in total shots (63 vs 43) reflects that clearly.
Hajduk average 53 fouls across five matches, which is noticeably higher than Rakow’s 20. That tendency to foul could invite set-piece danger for Rakow, but it also suggests Hajduk press aggressively and disrupt rhythm. Rakow’s 9 yellow cards in five games compared to Hajduk’s 8 shows both sides are competitive in the challenge. Hajduk’s pass accuracy is strong at roughly 87% (1266 of 1452 passes), giving them a clear technical advantage in build-up play over Rakow’s 84% (772 of 914). That possession quality, combined with home advantage, should translate into sustained pressure.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Hajduk Split to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Hajduk Split have been in strong form, winning four of their last seven matches and carrying momentum into this European tie. Their most recent league game ended in a 2-1 win over Gorica, a result that extended their positive run at home. Before that, they demolished Zalgiris 4-0 in what was effectively a European qualifier, showing they can perform at their best when the occasion demands it. A 2-2 draw against Istra 1961 and a 1-2 loss to Varazdin are the only blemishes in the recent run, but neither result undermines the overall quality coach Gonzalo García has built. The attack looks sharp, the midfield is creative, and the depth is there to rotate without losing quality.
Rakow arrive in uncertain form. Their last five matches tell a mixed story: a 4-0 win over Valletta, two results against Hammarby (1-0 win and 0-0 draw), a 1-2 loss to Slask Wroclaw, and most recently a 1-2 defeat to Cracovia. That final result is a concern heading into a two-legged European playoff. Rakow have shown they can keep clean sheets and grind out wins, but their 7 goals in five matches reveals a team that struggles to create consistently. Coach Dawid Kroczek will likely set up compactly and look to hit on the counter, perhaps relying on Emreli’s individual quality to make the difference.
🚨Check out our dedicated Hajduk Split vs Rakow stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Hajduk Split the Favourite
- Moneyline Hajduk Split 2.06 | Rakow 3.65
- Draw 3.25
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The market reflects a clear lean toward Hajduk Split at home, and the pricing makes sense. At around 2.06, Hajduk offer reasonable value for a side that has been scoring freely and hosting a team that just lost their last competitive match. The draw at 3.25 is not unattractive for those expecting Rakow to park defensively, but given Hajduk’s attacking firepower at Poljud, backing the home win feels like the sharper play. Rakow at 3.65 is a long shot that only makes sense if you believe in a major away upset.
Possible Starting Lineups
Hajduk Split Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Dante Stipica
- DF: Dario Marešić, Simun Hrgovic, Alec Van Hoorenbeeck, Mathieu Acapandie
- MF: Rokas Pukstas, Adrion Pajaziti, Andelo Šutalo, Alberto del Moral
- FW: Michele Šego, Marko Livaja
Hajduk Split look set to line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape, though the data supports a fluid 4-4-2 with two forwards. Dante Stipica takes the gloves after logging the most playing time among the goalkeepers. Dario Marešić leads the defensive line with the highest pass count among defenders. Rokas Pukstas is the standout name in midfield, with three goals and an assist in five games, and he will be key to linking play between the lines. Michele Šego, with four goals in five matches, provides the most direct goal threat in attack alongside the experienced Marko Livaja.
Rakow Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Kacper Trelowski
- DF: Bogdan Racovitan, Jerzy Napieraj, Stratos Svarnas
- MF: Jean Carlos, Oskar Repka, Vladyslav Kochergin, Michael Ameyaw, Diedounne Gaucho Debohi, Patryk Makuch
- FW: Mahir Emreli
Rakow are expected to set up in a 4-2-3-1 as well, with Kacper Trelowski in goal after featuring in all five recent matches and recording 9 saves. The defensive line is anchored by Bogdan Racovitan, who has been solid throughout the recent run. In midfield, Jean Carlos provides creativity with six interceptions, while Diedounne Gaucho Debohi carries the most defensive workload. Mahir Emreli leads the line and remains the most likely source of goals, combining physical presence with technical quality. Patryk Makuch, with two goals from midfield, adds a secondary scoring threat.
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Rakow. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Hajduk Split should win this first leg at Stadion Poljud. The numbers back it up across every category: more goals, more shots, better passing quality, and a stronger run of recent results. Rakow are a disciplined side with decent European experience, but they arrive on the back of a domestic defeat and with an attack that has struggled to fire consistently.
We predict a Hajduk Split win with both teams scoring. The home side’s high foul count may hand Rakow set-piece opportunities, and Emreli is capable of converting from nothing, so a clean sheet for Hajduk seems unlikely. A 2-1 scoreline in favor of the hosts feels like the most probable outcome, giving Hajduk a solid platform ahead of the second leg in Poland.
