Liam Duckstein
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Dinamo Tirana host Pafos at Stadiumi Selman Stërmasi in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League 2026/27 Playoffs. The Albanian side earned their place here by knocking out Aluminij and then FC Astana in the earlier rounds, while Pafos arrives off the back of a dramatic 3-3 draw with Salzburg that showed both their attacking ability and defensive vulnerability. The aggregate format means the first leg result carries enormous weight, and Pafos enter as clear bookmakers’ favourites despite playing away from home.
Two players to watch closely: Klevi Qefalija has been Dinamo Tirana’s most productive midfielder across the last five matches, scoring twice from midfield, and his ability to arrive late into the box could cause Pafos problems. For the visitors, Gabriel Teixeira Aragao leads their attacking line with two goals and a free kick goal in the last five games, combining well with teammates and generating seven shots in that stretch.
Pafos attempted 63 shots across their last five matches, more than double Dinamo Tirana’s 28. That volume of attacking intent, even against stronger opponents like Salzburg and Hajduk Split, tells you a great deal about how Ricardo Sá Pinto sets his team up.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, Playoffs |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadiumi Selman Stërmasi, Tirana |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Dinamo Tirana vs Pafos Prediction
Pafos are the stronger side on paper, and the bookmakers reflect that clearly with odds hovering around 1.88 to 1.92 for an away win. Their recent European pedigree, facing Salzburg, Hajduk Split, and Slovan Bratislava, puts them in a different bracket of experience compared to Dinamo Tirana’s opponents. The Cypriot side have also shown they can score goals freely, netting seven goals across their last two qualifying ties against Hajduk Split alone.
Dinamo Tirana are not without their own confidence. They dismantled Auda 4-0 in the second leg of their previous round and beat FC Astana 2-1. Playing at home in Tirana, under Ilir Daja’s 4-2-3-1 setup, they will look to stay compact and hit on the counter. Their last 30 days show a 50% win rate, which is actually better than Pafos’s 25% over the same period.
Pafos tend to commit fouls regularly, recording 23 in five matches, and their pass accuracy sits at a reasonable but not dominant level. Their 3-5-2 shape gives them width through the wing-backs, which could stretch Dinamo Tirana’s defensive line. We predict a Pafos win, but a close one. The away side carries enough quality to take the edge in a match that should see goals at both ends.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Pafos to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Dinamo Tirana enter this match in decent shape. They won three of their last five games and showed real cutting edge in the 4-0 hammering of Auda, with goals spread across the squad rather than relying on one individual. The 0-1 defeat in the first leg against Auda earlier in the same tie shows they can struggle when opponents press high, but they recovered convincingly in the return fixture. Their 3-0 win over Aluminij further back in the qualifying rounds also confirmed their ability to dominate lesser opposition at home. Coach Ilir Daja has built a side that is physically competitive and difficult to break down, but the step up in quality from Pafos is significant.
Pafos arrive in Tirana off the back of a remarkable 3-3 draw with Salzburg in the second leg, having already lost the first leg 0-1. That result means they were eliminated by Salzburg on aggregate, but the manner of the performance, scoring three times against an Austrian powerhouse, speaks to their attacking confidence. Before that, they demolished Hajduk Split 4-0 in the second leg after losing the first 0-2, showing a consistent pattern of bouncing back. The 2-3 loss to Slovan Bratislava earlier in the campaign is the one result that hints at defensive fragility. Radosław Majecki in goal has made four saves across the last five matches and will need to be sharp in Tirana.
🚨Check out our dedicated Dinamo Tirana vs Pafos stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Pafos the Favourite
- Moneyline Dinamo Tirana 3.70 | Pafos 1.88
- Draw 3.30
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The odds tell a straightforward story: Pafos are clear favourites at around 1.88, while Dinamo Tirana are priced as underdogs at approximately 3.70. The draw sits at around 3.30, which is fair given the home side’s capacity to stay compact and frustrate. To be honest, the Pafos price looks reasonable value given their recent European pedigree and attacking output. The home win at 3.70 carries some appeal as a speculative bet, particularly if Pafos show the same defensive looseness they did against Salzburg, but the smarter side of the market points toward the Cypriot side taking this first leg.
Possible Starting Lineups
Dinamo Tirana Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Aldo Teqja
- DF: Naser Aliji, Lorran de Oliveira Quintanilha, Erjon Hoxhallari
- MF: Bruno Dita, Eridon Qardaku, Klevi Qefalija, Malomo Taofeek Ayodeji
- FW: Lorenco Vila, Hekuran Berisha, Ruben Elvin Cornelious Silva Richards
Ilir Daja is expected to line up in his preferred 4-2-3-1, though the squad depth suggests some flexibility. Aldo Teqja takes the gloves having featured in all five recent matches. Bruno Dita and Eridon Qardaku form the double pivot, with Qardaku picking up two yellow cards across the last five games, so discipline will matter against a physical Pafos side. Klevi Qefalija is the man to watch in the number ten role, having scored twice recently and showing a knack for arriving in dangerous areas. Hekuran Berisha leads the line with one goal and one assist across the same period.
Pafos Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Radosław Majecki
- DF: David Luiz, Nicholas Ioannou, David Goldar, Felipe Bruno
- MF: Ivan Šunjić, Pêpê, Vlad Dragomir, Gonçalo Rodrigues, Alexandre Brito
- FW: Gabriel Teixeira Aragao
Ricardo Sá Pinto typically deploys a 3-5-2, but the squad data points toward a shape with a back four and a midfield five in certain games. Radosław Majecki starts in goal. The veteran David Luiz anchors the backline with 106 passes and a 90% pass accuracy across four matches, bringing calm distribution from deep. Nicholas Ioannou contributes offensively from the left side with four free kicks taken. Gabriel Teixeira Aragao is the standout threat up front, combining two goals, seven shots, and a free kick goal. Gonçalo Rodrigues adds creativity from midfield with one goal and three shots in four appearances.
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Pafos. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Pafos have shown across this qualifying campaign that they can score goals against quality opposition, and Dinamo Tirana, for all their home advantage, have not faced anything close to this level of attacking quality. The Albanian side’s 28 shots across five matches compared to Pafos’s 63 highlights the gap in attacking volume. Pafos also generated 20 corner kicks in five games, which suggests their set-piece delivery will be a constant threat at Selman Stërmasi.
Dinamo Tirana are not without danger, particularly through Qefalija and Berisha on the break. Their home form has been solid, and a 50% win rate in the last 30 days is genuinely competitive. We predict Pafos to win this first leg, with both teams finding the net. The scoreline 1-2 to Pafos looks the most likely outcome, giving the Cypriot side a narrow but important advantage heading into the return leg. The BTTS market and Over 2.5 goals are the bets we back with the most confidence.
