Sofia Quijada
Canada Women travel to Bergen’s Brann Stadion on June 10 as heavy favourites against Costa Rica Women in an International Friendly. The last time these two sides met, in June 2025, Canada put four past Costa Rica with bookmakers giving the Ticas just a 9% chance of winning that day. This time the market is even colder on Costa Rica, pricing them at 10%, which tells you everything about the gap in quality. Canada’s attack, led by Adriana Leon, is expected to cause real problems for a Costa Rican backline that shipped five to Brazil earlier this year. On the other side, Raquel Rodríguez remains Costa Rica’s most creative threat in midfield and will need a big game if her side is to stay competitive.
Hot stat: Costa Rica’s only match in the last 30 days ended 1-1 against El Salvador (W), a team ranked far below Canada. That single draw represents their entire recent competitive activity heading into this fixture, a stark contrast to Canada’s more active schedule across the same period.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Friendly 2026, June Phase |
| 🗓️ Date: | 10.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 03:30 CEST |
Costa Rica (W) vs Canada (W) Prediction
Canada Women are the clear pick here. Their 67% win rate this year across six matches, combined with a dominant head-to-head record including a 4-1 win in the most recent meeting, makes backing a Canada win the most logical route. Costa Rica’s 60% win rate in 2026 looks respectable on paper, but those wins came against heavily outmatched opposition such as Cayman Islands (21-0) and Bermuda (8-0). Their only test against quality opposition this year resulted in a 2-5 loss to Brazil. Canada, by contrast, beat Argentina 3-2 and South Korea 3-1, which are meaningful results.
We predict Canada to win and for goals to flow. Costa Rica’s last five matches show just 12 total fouls and 2 yellow cards, suggesting they are not a particularly aggressive or physical side. Canada should find space to operate freely. Costa Rica averaged only 9 shots in their last recorded five-match sample, which limits their threat going forward. The 4-2-3-1 shape Canada typically deploy gives them numerical strength in central areas, where Costa Rica’s 4-4-2 could be exposed on the transitions. With Costa Rica’s pass accuracy sitting at 261 completed passes from 396 attempted, there is a sloppiness in their build-up that Canada can exploit with their pressing.
| 🔥 Hot Tip: | Canada (W) to Win to Nil |
| ⚽ Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥 Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯 Total Corners: | Over 6.5 |
Team Analysis
Costa Rica Women have been inconsistent across their 2026 campaign. Their form reads as a mixed run of results, with wins coming almost exclusively against weak opposition. The 21-0 win over Cayman Islands and the 8-0 over Bermuda inflate their record significantly. The 2-5 home loss to Brazil exposed their defensive fragility against genuine quality. Their most recent match, a 1-1 draw with El Salvador on June 5, did little to inspire confidence ahead of a much tougher test. Costa Rica only registered 9 shots across their last five-match sample with 4 corner kicks, pointing to a side that struggles to generate volume in attack.
Canada Women’s last match ended in a 0-1 defeat to Brazil on June 17, but the matches before that paint a better picture. They beat South Korea 3-1 and Zambia 4-0, and earlier in the year they claimed a 3-2 win over Argentina and a 3-2 win over USA. Their 0-1 loss to the USA earlier in the year is their only other blemish against top-tier opposition, and both defeats came against sides ranked well above Costa Rica. The fact that Canada’s lineup stats in the last five matches show zeroes across most categories suggests the data is partially incomplete, but their results speak for themselves.
🚨 Check out our dedicated Costa Rica (W) vs Canada (W) stats page for more info.
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Canada (W) the Favourite
- Moneyline Costa Rica (W) 9.00 | Canada (W) 1.26
- Draw 5.20
Canada at 1.26 is short but honestly justified given the head-to-head record and the quality gap between these squads. Costa Rica at 9.00 is not a value play given their only recent competitive activity was a draw with El Salvador. The draw at 5.20 is also not compelling, as Costa Rica conceded four in their last meeting and showed no signs of defensive improvement since. The bookmakers have this right, and we agree with the market direction. The better value angle is Canada to win without conceding, rather than simply backing the straight win at 1.26.
Possible Starting Lineups
Costa Rica (W) Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Noelia Bermudez
- DF: Fabiola Villalobos, Valeria Del Campo, Maria Coto, Gabriela Guillen
- MF: Katherine Alvarado, Sheika Scott, Gloriana Villalobos, Priscilla Chinchilla
- FW: Raquel Rodríguez, Stephannie Blanco
Coach Amelia Valverde is expected to line up in a 4-4-2, consistent with Costa Rica’s recent matches. Noelia Bermudez starts in goal after logging 90 minutes in the El Salvador draw, where she also recorded 5 saves. Raquel Rodríguez drops into a deeper midfield-forward role and remains the most technically capable player in this squad, registering 2 interceptions and 55 passes in her last outing. Priscilla Chinchilla added an assist from midfield and is one to watch for set-piece delivery.
Canada (W) Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Kailen Sheridan
- DF: Allysha Chapman, Vanessa Gilles, Ashley Lawrence, Jade Rose
- MF: Julia Grosso, Jessie Fleming, Olivia Smith
- FW: Adriana Leon, Cloe Lacasse, Jordyn Huitema
Casey Stoney is expected to field a 4-2-3-1 shape, which has been Canada’s most used formation in recent matches. Jessie Fleming provides the engine in central midfield, controlling tempo and linking defence to attack. Adriana Leon and Cloe Lacasse form a dangerous front pairing with the pace to punish Costa Rica’s high defensive line. Kailen Sheridan in goal is one of the best in the CONCACAF region and is unlikely to be troubled heavily, which supports the Canada to win to nil angle.
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Costa Rica (w). Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Canada Women are the standout pick in this fixture. Their 4-1 win in the June 2025 meeting set the tone, and the quality gap has not narrowed since. Costa Rica’s attack managed just 9 shots across their last five-match data sample, and their only loss in 2026 against a top opponent, the 2-5 defeat to Brazil, showed they can be dismantled when facing a well-organised side. Canada beat Argentina and South Korea in recent months, confirming they can handle pressure matches. We predict a comfortable Canada win, with goals arriving in both halves. The Canada to win to nil market at the available odds offers the best risk-to-reward ratio for this game. Over 2.5 goals is also a sound secondary play given Costa Rica’s defensive record against quality opposition.
