Ceara vs Botafogo SP Prediction: June 21 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B

Ceara host Botafogo SP at Estadio Castelão in Fortaleza on June 21, with both clubs sitting in the bottom half of the Série B table and needing points to avoid further drift toward the relegation zone. Ceara sit 13th on 17 points, six places and four points above Botafogo SP in 16th. The hosts carry a notable psychological edge from head-to-head history, winning both meetings in 2024 by a combined 8-2 score, though Botafogo SP enter this match having just beaten Operario PR 2-1 in their last outing. Midfielder Matheus Araujo has been Ceara’s most active ball-carrier in recent weeks, picking up two yellow cards across four appearances, while Botafogo SP’s Hygor leads his side’s attacking output with two goals in four games, making him the most dangerous forward on the visiting side.

Hot stat: Botafogo SP accumulated 14 yellow cards across their last five matches, the highest disciplinary count of either side, signaling a physical and disjointed approach that has not translated into results.

Ceara vs Botafogo SP Prediction

Bookmakers price Ceara as clear favorites at around 49% implied probability, and the data backs that up. Ceara’s 44% win rate across 34 matches this year comfortably outpaces Botafogo SP’s 29% from 21 games. In their last 30 days, Ceara went 2-2-1 against Botafogo SP’s 1-3-1, and the home side’s form string shows a recent recovery with back-to-back wins. Playing in front of their own crowd in Fortaleza adds further weight to the Ceara win.

Botafogo SP’s defensive record is not the problem, they are level on goals conceded versus scored at 13-13, but their inability to win games (three wins from 13) tells a sharper story. They have failed to score in three of their last five matches. Ceara, operating in a 4-2-3-1, tend to control possession and generate pressure through the flanks, which suits an attack on a Botafogo SP side that uses a narrow 4-1-4-1.

Botafogo SP’s 61 total shots across five games sounds productive, but their conversion rate is poor with only three goals scored. Ceara’s 29 corner kicks to Botafogo SP’s 29 is an even split, though Ceara tend to create more from set-piece situations as the stats on Julio Cesar’s goal from open play suggest structured offensive movement.

We predict a Ceara win to nil is worth considering at boosted odds given Botafogo SP’s scoring drought, though the safer main bet remains a Ceara win.

• Main bet: Ceara to win
• Value bet: Ceara to win and both teams not to score (Ceara win to nil)
• Disciplinary angle: Botafogo SP over 2.5 yellow cards (14 in last 5 matches)

Team Analysis

Ceara’s last five results read as a mixed but improving picture. They beat Fortaleza 2-1 and then lost consecutive matches to Novorizontino (1-2) and Operario PR (1-2) before recovering with a 2-1 win over Avai and a 1-1 draw with Criciuma. The losses came against higher-ranked opposition, which provides some context. Coach Mozart’s side has shown the ability to beat the sides around them in the table, and Botafogo SP fit that profile. Ceara’s pass accuracy across five games sits at 1,069 completed passes from 1,384 attempted, a solid enough base, and their three red cards in five matches suggest some defensive aggression that occasionally tips into recklessness.

Botafogo SP’s recent run is difficult to overlook. They beat Operario PR 2-1 in their most recent game, which was only their second win in the last five matches. Before that, they drew 0-0 with Ponte Preta, lost 0-1 to Vila Nova, lost 1-2 to Athletic Club, and lost 0-1 to Goias. Three clean-sheet losses and one goalless draw in that stretch point to an attack that cannot find consistency. Hygor’s six offsides across four games also hint at a forward line that is poorly timed in its runs, making Botafogo SP’s attacking threat easy to contain for a disciplined Ceara backline.

🚨Check out our dedicated Ceara vs Botafogo SP stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Ceara the Favourite

• Moneyline Ceara 1.88 | Botafogo SP 4.29
• Draw 3.18

Ceara’s odds around 1.88 are fair given the home advantage, the head-to-head dominance, and Botafogo SP’s current form. The draw at 3.18 is not attractive given how one-sided the recent H2H record is. Botafogo SP at 4.29 offers marginal value only if you believe their win over Operario PR signals a real turnaround, which the broader data does not support. We see Ceara’s price as the sensible starting point for any accumulator or single.

Possible Starting Lineups

Ceara Possible Starting Eleven

Ceara are expected to line up in their familiar 4-2-3-1 under Mozart, with Richard in goal after three recent appearances. The defensive four picks itself based on minutes played, with Éder and Luiz Otávio forming a reliable central partnership. Julio Cesar Alves Goncalves is the standout to watch, the only outfield player to register both a goal and an assist in recent games, and his work rate across 268 minutes makes him a key figure in the double pivot. Matheus Araujo drives play from midfield and should see a lot of the ball against a Botafogo SP side that tends to sit deep.

Botafogo SP Possible Starting Eleven

Cláudio Tencati will likely set up in a 4-1-4-1 shape, with Victor Souza in goal after four appearances and eight saves. Hygor leads the line and is the primary threat, his six offsides in four games show he is actively testing the defensive line even if the timing is off. Morelli is the engine in midfield with 10 shots and one goal across four games, and his 11 fouls committed underline Botafogo SP’s physical approach. Rafael Gava’s two assists make him the main creative outlet. Botafogo SP’s backline has conceded only three goals in their last three matches, so they are not completely open, but the attack remains the bigger concern.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

The data points clearly toward a Ceara win. They hold a 44% annual win rate versus Botafogo SP’s 29%, they are at home, and they have beaten this opponent 4-1 twice in 2024. Botafogo SP have scored in only two of their last five matches, and their 14 yellow cards in that span suggest a team that is struggling to impose itself through quality and compensating with physicality. Ceara’s 4-2-3-1 gives them structural control, and Julio Cesar and Matheus Araujo should be able to exploit the gaps in Botafogo SP’s narrow midfield block.

We predict a 2-0 Ceara win, with Under 2.5 goals as the total market pick and Botafogo SP over 2.5 yellow cards as the disciplinary side bet worth including in your slip.

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