Sofia Quijada
Castellon host Almeria at Estadio Municipal Castalia in the opening leg of the La Liga 2 2025/26 Promotion play-off. These two sides know each other well, having met four times across the last two seasons, with Castellon winning three of those encounters including a 5-2 and a 4-1 result at home. That home dominance is the defining context here. Almeria’s midfielder Stefan Džodić has been their most industrious operator over the last five matches, logging 254 passes and nine shots, while Castellon’s forward Álex Calatrava Torrado leads his side in shots (23) and carries a direct goal threat with one goal and one assist across their recent run.
Hot stat: Castellon have scored in each of their last four matches, netting five goals across that run, including a 2-1 win over Eibar and a 1-0 win over Huesca, both against sides with strong recent form.
| Tournament: | La Liga 2 2025/26 – Promotion Play-Off |
| Venue: | Estadio Municipal Castalia, Castellon, Spain |
| Date: | 06.06.2026 |
| Time: | DATE21:00 CEST |
Castellon vs Almeria Prediction
Castellon’s home record against Almeria is the strongest signal in this fixture. Three wins from three home meetings across the last two seasons, including two high-scoring victories, points firmly toward the home side. Pablo Hernández’s team has gone unbeaten in their last four matches (two wins, two draws), and their 2-1 win over Eibar in the most recent outing showed they can handle pressure games. Almeria lost to Sporting Gijón 3-1 and Las Palmas 2-1 in their last two away fixtures, which raises real doubts about their resilience on the road at this stage of the season.
Castellon average 1.25 goals per game across their last five but have conceded sparingly. Almeria are a higher-volume side in attack (92 shots, 7 goals over five games), yet their defensive record away from home is inconsistent. Almeria’s 13 yellow cards across five matches and 69 fouls committed suggest a physical, aggressive approach that could work against them when facing a compact Castellon side playing in a 4-2-3-1 with disciplined midfield runners. Castellon committed only 56 fouls across the same period, reflecting a more composed style. Ball possession data shows Almeria averaging 423.6 passes per game to Castellon’s 350.4, meaning Almeria will look to control tempo, but Castellon’s interception rate (34 across five games) shows they can disrupt buildup effectively.
| Hot Tip: | Castellon to win to nil |
| Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| Both Teams To Score: | No |
| Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Castellon Recent Form
Castellon’s last five results read: W (2-1 vs Eibar), W (1-0 vs Huesca), D (1-1 vs Cádiz), D (1-1 vs Ceuta), L (1-2 vs Córdoba). The Córdoba loss was the only blemish in a run that shows growing momentum heading into the play-offs. Their win over Eibar is particularly notable given Eibar carried a world ranking of 277 and were in strong recent form themselves. The 1-0 over Huesca was clean and controlled. Across these five games, Castellon registered 74 shots and conceded only moderate attacking volume in return. Fabrizio Brignani contributed a goal from defence and has been reliable at the back across all four of his appearances.
Almeria Recent Form
Almeria’s last five results: W (1-0 vs Real Valladolid), L (1-3 vs Sporting Gijón), L (1-2 vs Las Palmas), D (0-0 vs Burgos CF), W (4-2 vs Mirandés). The 4-2 win over Mirandés showed attacking capability, with Adrián Embarba, Léo Baptistão, Miguel De La Fuente, Jon Morcillo, and Sergio Arribas all contributing goals across this run. Their 22 saves from goalkeeper Andrés Fernández in five matches indicate they are absorbing significant pressure. The 3-1 loss to Sporting Gijón was the most damaging result, coming against a side ranked 312 globally. Federico Bonini’s red card is also worth noting as it may affect availability or selection caution.
Check out our dedicated Castellon vs Almeria stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Castellon the Favourite
- Moneyline Castellon 1.79 | Almeria 4.06
- Draw 4.00
Castellon at 1.79 reflects bookmaker confidence in the home side, and the 53% implied probability aligns with historical performance. The draw at 4.00 is overpriced relative to the actual threat of a stalemate given both sides’ goal output in recent weeks. Almeria’s odds at 4.06 accurately reflect their away form and the h2h deficit at this venue. We see value in Castellon winning to nil at likely 3.00+ given Almeria’s defensive fragility away and Castellon’s ability to keep clean sheets when defensively organized.
Possible Starting Lineups
Castellon Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Romain Matthys
- DF: Alberto Jiménez, Fabrizio Brignani, Lucas Alcázar, Agustín Sienra
- MF: Beñat Gerenabarrena, Diego Barri, Israel Suero Fernández
- FW: Álex Calatrava Torrado, Brian Cipenga, Ousmane Camara
Pablo Hernández is expected to set up in his preferred 4-2-3-1. Romain Matthys has started four of the last five matches and made nine saves, making him the clear first choice. Fabrizio Brignani, who scored in this run, brings aerial threat from centre-back. Beñat Gerenabarrena anchors the midfield with eight interceptions and 189 passes across four appearances. Álex Calatrava Torrado is the key creative outlet with 23 shots, one goal, and one assist, and is the player most likely to unlock Almeria’s defence in transition.
Almeria Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Andrés Fernández
- DF: Rodrigo Ely, Federico Bonini, Álex Muñoz, Marcos Luna
- MF: Stefan Džodić, Sergio Arribas Calvo, Dion Lopy, Arnau Puigmal
- FW: Adrián Embarba, Miguel De La Fuente
Rubi’s 4-1-4-1 shape relies on Džodić as the defensive pivot, with Rodrigo Ely marshalling the back line (10 interceptions, 302 passes across five games). Andrés Fernández’s 22 saves suggest the defence will need his form to continue. Adrián Embarba leads in shots (15) and free-kick attempts (2), making him Almeria’s most dangerous outlet, while Miguel De La Fuente adds four offsides, showing his willingness to run in behind. Federico Bonini’s red card risk following his dismissal this season is a factor Rubi may weigh in his selection.
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Almeria. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
The data points heavily toward a Castellon win. Three home victories over Almeria in recent seasons, the most recent ending 2-0, combined with Almeria’s inconsistent away performances make the home side a clear favorite. Castellon’s defensive structure, averaging fewer fouls and cards than Almeria, suggests they will absorb pressure and hit on the counter, which is exactly how they beat Eibar and Huesca. We predict Castellon to win this first leg with a clean sheet, likely 1-0 or 2-0, setting up a favorable aggregate position heading into the second leg. The best value bet is Castellon to win to nil, perhaps backed by an under 2.5 goals market as a safer alternative.
