Almeria vs Castellon Prediction: 09.06.2026 La Liga 2 Promotion Preview

Almeria and Castellon meet again at the Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos in a second Promotion phase fixture, just days after their first encounter ended 1-1. Both sides enter this match level on one point in the mini-table, making this a direct battle for positioning in the La Liga 2 promotion playoff. The first leg already showed neither team is willing to sit back, and the stakes are even sharper now with Malaga leading the group after their opening win.

Two players deserve particular attention. Sergio Arribas Calvo has been Almeria’s standout performer with 3 goals in the last 5 matches, combined with 11 shots and high pass volume, making him the primary creative and scoring threat for Rubi’s side. For Castellon, Álex Calatrava Torrado leads with 20 shots across 5 games, 1 goal, and 1 assist, and his directness on the ball makes him the most dangerous outlet Pablo Hernández has available.

Hot stat: Castellon have registered 39 corner kicks across their last 5 matches, compared to Almeria’s 16. That set-piece dominance is a significant edge in a tight promotion fixture where margins are small.

Almeria vs Castellon Prediction

The first leg between these two sides finished 1-1, and the recent head-to-head record is heavily skewed in Castellon’s favor, with wins of 4-1 and 5-2 in their last two La Liga 2 meetings before this promotion phase. Castellon have also gone unbeaten in their last 5 matches (W2, D3), while Almeria have won just once in 5 outings (W1, L2, D2). Playing at home gives Almeria a structural advantage, but Castellon’s form and historical dominance in this fixture make the visitors hard to dismiss.

Almeria commit more fouls on average (85 total across 5 games vs Castellon’s 71) and have collected 16 yellow cards compared to Castellon’s 7. That disciplinary gap could be decisive in a high-pressure promotion match, with Almeria players at real risk of being reduced to ten men. Castellon control the ball more efficiently, posting 2,219 passes at 83% accuracy against Almeria’s 1,888 at 81%. Castellon’s passing structure suits a team that is comfortable managing games and hitting on the counter, which fits the away role well.

• We predict Castellon to win or draw (Double Chance X2) as the primary value play given their unbeaten run, superior head-to-head record, and better disciplinary profile.
• We predict Under 2.5 goals, as 3 of the last 4 head-to-head matches have seen tightly contested scorelines, and both teams have averaged just over 1 goal per game in recent outings.
• We predict Over 8.5 corners as a strong secondary market, driven by Castellon’s remarkable corner rate of nearly 8 per game across 5 matches.

Team Analysis

Almeria’s last 5 matches have been inconsistent at best. They beat Real Valladolid 1-0, then lost 3-1 to Sporting Gijon and 2-1 to Las Palmas before drawing 0-0 with Burgos CF. Their most recent game before the promotion opener was that draw with Castellon. The attack has been muted, with just 5 goals across those 5 fixtures, and the defensive record shows clear vulnerability against teams with quality. Rubi’s 4-2-3-1 relies heavily on Arribas Calvo and Adrián Embarba for creativity, but the output around them has been limited.

Castellon’s form over the same period reads much better: wins against Eibar (2-1) and Huesca (1-0), draws with Cadiz, Ceuta, and Almeria, with no losses in 5 games. Pablo Hernández has built a disciplined, hard-to-beat side. Calatrava leads the attack with volume and directness, while Fabrizio Brignani has contributed 2 goals from defense, adding a set-piece threat that ties directly into Castellon’s corner dominance. The team’s low yellow card count across 5 games (7 total) reflects a structured, composed approach under pressure.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨 Check out our dedicated Almeria vs Castellon stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Almeria the Favourite

• Moneyline Almeria 2.34 | Castellon 2.87
• Draw 3.60
• Over/Under Over 2.5 – check bookmaker | Under 2.5 – check bookmaker
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes – check bookmaker | No – check bookmaker

The bookmakers price Almeria as slight favorites at around 2.34, reflecting home advantage. Castellon at 2.87 represents genuine value given their unbeaten run and the head-to-head record that shows they score freely against Almeria. The draw at 3.60 is fair given the first leg result, and a repeat 1-1 is a live possibility. We see Castellon’s odds as underpriced relative to their actual threat level in this fixture.

Possible Starting Lineups

Almeria Possible Starting Eleven

Rubi’s preferred 4-2-3-1 places Džodić and Lopy as the double pivot, with Arribas Calvo operating as the central attacking midfielder. Andrés Fernández starts in goal given his 16 saves across 5 matches. Álex Muñoz is a key figure in both phases, contributing heavily in passing and defensive duties with 13 interceptions. Embarba’s 2 assists and direct running make him the primary wide threat, and Miguel De La Fuente’s goal contribution off the bench could push him into the starting role here.

Castellon Possible Starting Eleven

Pablo Hernández also lines up in a 4-2-3-1. Romain Matthys is the clear first-choice goalkeeper with 8 saves across 5 matches. Fabrizio Brignani is the standout name, scoring 2 goals from center-back and covering 450 minutes without a red card. Calatrava leads the attacking line with 20 shots and direct box presence. Barri and Gerenabarrena form a disciplined central midfield pair, and their combined passing volume gives Castellon stability in transition. Ousmane Camara adds a physical, direct option in the final third.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

This is a fixture where the numbers point clearly toward Castellon being undervalued. They have not lost in 5 matches, outshot Almeria across recent games (86 vs 71), generate far more corners (39 vs 16), and carry significantly less disciplinary baggage. The historical head-to-head from the last two full La Liga 2 seasons shows Castellon winning 4-1 and 5-2 at this level, and even in the first leg of this promotion phase they held their own for a 1-1 draw.

Almeria’s home advantage is real, but their form over the last 30 days (W1, L2, D2) does not inspire confidence against a side on an unbeaten run. We back the Castellon Double Chance (X2) as the primary bet, with Under 2.5 goals as a supporting market. To be honest, the first leg result and the broader pattern of this rivalry suggest another tight, low-scoring affair, and Castellon have the tools to avoid defeat again.

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