Varazdin vs Hajduk Split Prediction: 13.09.2025 1. HNL 2025/26 Preview

As the 2025/26 1. HNL campaign kicks into gear, all eyes turn to Stadion Anđelko Herjavec, where Varazdin welcome the in-form Hajduk Split. Both clubs have already shown contrasting fortunes in their early-season assignments, but it’s the subtle shifts in momentum, tactical grit, and a dash of Croatian footballing panache that set the stage for a fascinating showdown. What makes this encounter particularly intriguing is the presence of two astute tacticians in Nikola Safaric and Gonzalo García, each eager to stamp their identity on their respective sides. Could this clash provide the first real curveball in the race for European spots?

When it comes to game-changers, Hajduk Split’s Rokas Pukstas has started the campaign on fire with three goals in his last four matches, combining a box-to-box presence with a nose for late runs into the penalty area. For Varazdin, Aleksa Latkovic stands out, pitching in with two goals and a tireless output in the middle third, embodying both creativity and relentless pressing. Watch also for the experienced goalkeepers anchoring their defences in Oliver Zelenika for Varazdin and Ivica Ivušić for Hajduk – both capable of the spectacular under pressure.

The “hot stat”? Hajduk Split have peppered opposition goalkeepers with an eye-catching 64 total shots in their last five matches, underscoring their intent to play on the front foot and seize control early.

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Varazdin vs Hajduk Split prediction

Given current form, squad quality, and offensive output, the best value pick leans strongly in favour of Hajduk Split securing an away win. Hajduk’s 60 percent win rate over the last five matches—not to mention their free-scoring nature (seven goals in five)—gives them a substantive edge, especially against a Varazdin side struggling to convert opportunities into points (just one win in five). Their higher pass accuracy (1030 passes, 84 percent completion) signals midfield control, allowing them to dictate possession and place persistent pressure on Varazdin’s backline.

Varazdin, for all their spirit, average just under a goal per game and have shown vulnerability in defence, shipping seven in their last five outings. Their tendency towards physical play (49 fouls, 12 yellows in five matches) could spell trouble against Hajduk’s cunning attackers. Conversely, Hajduk, with fewer fouls (33) and more controlled aggression (just 10 yellows), appear well-drilled defensively. Expect a tightly contested midfield, but Hajduk’s extra bit of quality and clinical forward play should see them through.

Team Analysis

Varazdin come into this tie after a mixed bag of results. Their most recent display—a commanding 7-1 routing of GAJ Mace—offered a welcome respite from their inconsistency, but context matters: that opponent ranks well outside the usual top-flight competition. Earlier, a spirited 2-2 draw against Dinamo Zagreb showed their ability to rise on home turf, but a home loss to Slaven Belupo (1-3) and a scoreless draw with Osijek illuminate ongoing attacking struggles. The 4-2-3-1 system features Aleksa Latkovic as a scoring threat and Mario Marina’s engine-room hustle, but frequent turnovers and a high foul count expose defensive frailties when pressed by elite opposition.

Hajduk Split, meanwhile, are riding a wave of momentum, unbeaten in the league with four wins and a draw so far. Their last outing—a 2-2 share with Rijeka—revealed resilience, clawing back from adversity through Pukstas’ and Sanyang’s attacking flair. Clean sheets against Osijek (2-0) and Slaven Belupo (3-0) highlighted the back four’s composure, marshalled cleverly by Fran Karačić and shielded by Ivica Ivušić between the sticks. Their 4-2-3-1 system, with high ball retention and 27 corners won in their last five, supports creative wingers and late surges from midfield. The challenge? Keeping their composure and avoiding lapses in concentration away from home—a lesson learned in their narrowest victories.

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🚨Read our full Varazdin vs Hajduk Split stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Hajduk Split the favourite

• Moneyline Varazdin 4.10 | Hajduk Split 1.90
• Draw 3.25
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.08 | Under 2.5 1.76
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.11 | No 1.69

The bookmakers’ odds confirm a strong tilt towards a Hajduk Split win—an assessment that aligns with both recent results and underlying performance data. Varazdin’s longer odds reflect their up-and-down form and defensive frailties, while Hajduk’s high tempo and attacking edge give them both statistical and psychological momentum. Backing Hajduk at nearly even money offers clear value, especially with the under 2.5 goals market pricing in Varazdin’s relatively blunt attack versus Hajduk’s controlled aggression.

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The Verdict

From a journalist’s eye—rooted in both data and passion for the game—this is a classic script of a top team seeking to stamp its authority on a plucky underdog’s turf. Hajduk Split are deserved favourites, blending sturdy defensive organisation with a multi-pronged attack capable of controlling proceedings from the first whistle. However, Varazdin—particularly buoyed by home support and their occasional flashes of incisive attacking play—will not go quietly. If Hajduk remain disciplined and Pukstas continues his electric form, expect a narrow but deserved win for the Split side. Our main pick: Hajduk Split to win, with a likely 2-0 or 1-0 result. For those tracking the broader arc, both teams are worth watching—Hajduk chasing glory at the summit, Varazdin aiming to defy expectations and make their own impact on the season’s narrative.

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