Rafael Nogueira
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Flamengo RJ host Cruzeiro at Estádio do Maracanã in the second leg of their Copa Libertadores 2026 Round of 16 tie, with the first leg ending 1-1 in Belo Horizonte. Flamengo enter as heavy home favourites under Leonardo Jardim, but Cruzeiro’s away goal means a single home strike for the visitors would force Flamengo to score twice. That dynamic makes this one of the more tense all-Brazilian knockout ties in recent Libertadores memory.
Two players stand out heading into this match. Samuel Lino leads Flamengo’s attack in terms of shot volume across the last five games with 23 total shots and 2 goals, and his wide threat from the left will be key against Cruzeiro’s defensive structure. For the visitors, Kaio Jorge carries the most goal threat with 2 goals and 11 shots in 6 appearances, and his ability to hold up play and draw fouls could be decisive in a tight second leg.
Hot stat: Flamengo demolished Mirassol 5-1 in their most recent domestic outing, their most emphatic result in the data window, signalling sharp attacking form heading into this second leg.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Libertadores 2026, Round of 16 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:30 CEST |
Flamengo RJ vs Cruzeiro Prediction
We predict a Flamengo win in this second leg. The Maracanã crowd, combined with Flamengo’s superior passing volume (3,441 passes vs Cruzeiro’s 2,716 across the last five matches) and their 58% win rate across 48 games this year, gives them a clear structural edge at home. The first leg 1-1 draw means Cruzeiro must attack at some point, which opens space for Flamengo’s quick transitions. Jorge Carrascal (3 assists in 5 games) and Lucas Paquetá (2 goals in 4 games) are the players most likely to exploit those gaps.
Flamengo average fewer fouls (74 vs Cruzeiro’s 67 across five matches) but generate more free kicks conceded (70 vs 80), suggesting Cruzeiro are more aggressive in disrupting play. Cruzeiro’s 13 yellow cards in five games compared to Flamengo’s 7 tells a similar story: Artur Jorge’s side press with intensity but risk disciplinary issues in a high-stakes knockout. Flamengo’s 86.7% pass accuracy and cleaner discipline should translate into better control of the second half, when Cruzeiro may be forced to push forward.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Flamengo RJ to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Flamengo have not lost a single match in their last 30 days across six games, posting three wins and three draws. Their recent domestic form is particularly sharp: a 5-1 win over Mirassol and a 2-0 result against Vitória bookend a period of strong defensive organisation. The 1-1 draw with Cruzeiro in the first leg was their third draw in six games, suggesting they can be held when opponents sit deep, but they have the firepower to break down even organised defences at home. Pedro (2 goals, 10 shots) and Samuel Lino (2 goals, 23 shots) form a dangerous front line, and Jorginho’s 9 free kick attempts in 6 games adds a set-piece dimension to their attacking play.
Cruzeiro enter this tie in the stronger recent form over 30 days: five wins, one loss, two draws from eight games, a 63% win rate. Their most recent result was a 2-1 victory over Corinthians Paulista, following a 3-1 win over Mirassol and a 2-0 result against Chapecoense. Keny Arroyo (2 goals, 20 shots) and Kaio Jorge (2 goals, 11 shots) are their primary threats. Gerson’s 15 free kick attempts across six games and Matheus Pereira’s creative output in midfield give Cruzeiro real variety in how they build attacks. The concern is their yellow card tally: 13 bookings in five matches is high for a team that will need to stay disciplined over 90 minutes away from home.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Flamengo RJ | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 7 | 4 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Flamengo RJ vs Cruzeiro stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Flamengo RJ the Favourite
- Moneyline Flamengo RJ 1.66 | Cruzeiro 5.60
- Draw 3.50
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
Flamengo’s odds around 1.65-1.68 across most books are reasonable given their home advantage and the structural edge they hold. The draw at 3.50 is interesting given that both legs so far in this tie have ended level, but Flamengo’s 5-1 win over Mirassol last time out at home suggests they are capable of decisive performances when they need them. Cruzeiro at 5.50-6.00 reflects their underdog status correctly: they are capable of scoring away from home, but winning at the Maracanã in a knockout second leg is a tall order. Flamengo to win is the value play at current prices.
Cruzeiro. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Flamengo RJ Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Agustín Rossi
- DF: Guillermo Varela, Léo Pereira, Léo Ortiz, Ayrton Lucas
- MF: Jorginho, Erick Pulgar
- MF: Jorge Carrascal, Giorgian de Arrascaeta, Samuel Lino
- FW: Pedro
Leonardo Jardim is likely to set up in a 4-2-3-1, the formation Flamengo have used consistently across their last five matches. Agustín Rossi starts in goal with 8 saves in 6 appearances, showing he is the clear first choice. Léo Pereira anchors the defence and adds a goal threat from set pieces. In midfield, Jorge Carrascal is the standout name: 3 assists and 8 shots in 5 games make him the team’s most influential creative force. Samuel Lino’s shot volume from the left flank makes him the most dangerous wide player in this squad, and Pedro leads the line having scored twice in six games.
Cruzeiro Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Otávio Costa
- DF: Fagner, Fabrício Bruno, Jonathan Jesus, Lucas Villalba
- MF: Gerson, Matheus Henrique
- MF: Matheus Pereira, Keny Arroyo, Bruno Rodrigues
- FW: Kaio Jorge
Artur Jorge will also deploy a 4-2-3-1. Otávio Costa is the undisputed first-choice goalkeeper with 18 saves across six games. Fabrício Bruno and Jonathan Jesus form a solid central defensive partnership, with Jonathan Jesus completing 315 passes in 6 games to show his composure in buildup. Gerson’s 15 free kick attempts make him the set-piece hub in midfield. Keny Arroyo (2 goals, 20 shots) is the most active attacker in terms of volume, while Kaio Jorge leads in goals. The combination of Arroyo’s work rate and Kaio Jorge’s finishing gives Cruzeiro a legitimate threat even on the road.
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Flamengo. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
This second leg has the ingredients for a goal-heavy match. Flamengo need to win to advance without the risk of extra time, and Cruzeiro’s away goal means they will not sit back entirely. Flamengo’s 97 total shots in five games compared to Cruzeiro’s 91, combined with their 27 corner kicks versus Cruzeiro’s 35, points to a game where both sides generate chances. We predict Flamengo to win 2-1, covering the over 2.5 goals line and a BTTS outcome. Cruzeiro’s yellow card-heavy style risks going down to 10 men, which would only accelerate a Flamengo win. The hot tip of Flamengo to win to nil is the higher-risk play, but their defensive solidity at home (zero losses in 30 days) makes it worth considering at the right price.
