Sofia Quijada
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
The Copa Libertadores 2026 Round of 16 second leg brings Cerro Porteno and Palmeiras back together at the Estadio General Pablo Rojas in Asunción. The first leg ended 1-1, so everything is still open. Palmeiras are heavy favourites on paper, but Cerro have already beaten them once in this year’s group stage, and the Paraguayan crowd will make this anything but a formality.
Two players to track closely: Jorge Morel has been Cerro’s most productive midfielder across the last five matches, contributing 2 goals and showing consistent shot volume. For Palmeiras, José Manuel López leads the attack with 4 goals in 6 games and 16 total shots, making him the single biggest threat Cerro’s backline will face tonight.
Hot stat: Palmeiras attempted 111 shots across their last five matches compared to Cerro’s 79, a gap that underlines how much the Brazilian side dominates in the attacking third.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Libertadores 2026, Round of 16 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio General Pablo Rojas, Asunción |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:00 CEST |
Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras Prediction
With the tie level at 1-1 from the first leg, Palmeiras need to either win or force extra time to progress. Abel Ferreira’s side have the quality and the squad depth to do that, and their overall season win rate of 63% versus Cerro’s 47% reflects a real gap in consistency. Palmeiras have won 29 of 46 matches this year; Cerro have won 17 of 36. The Brazilian side also carry two red cards across their last five games, which is worth watching for disciplinary risk in a knockout tie.
Cerro play a 3-4-2-1 that can get compact and physical quickly. Their 72 fouls in five matches against Palmeiras’ 66 tells the story of a side that leans on defensive aggression. Palmeiras’ pass accuracy of 2,281 correct passes from 2,710 attempts is considerably cleaner than Cerro’s 1,825 from 2,334, and that superiority in build-up play should translate to more sustained pressure in the second half.
The first leg between these two sides produced 1-1. In their Copa Libertadores 2026 group stage meeting at Asunción, Cerro won 1-0. Palmeiras will know they cannot sit back. We predict a narrow Palmeiras win, with the match staying tight until the final twenty minutes.
- Main pick: Palmeiras to win (Asian Handicap -0.5)
- Value pick: Over 2.5 goals
- Confidence: Medium-high on Palmeiras win, medium on goals total
Cerro’s home record matters here, but the aggregate context forces Palmeiras to attack, which opens space. Their corners tally of 35 in five matches against Cerro’s 19 also points to sustained Palmeiras pressure from wide areas.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Palmeiras to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Cerro Porteno arrive on the back of a 1-0 win over San Lorenzo in their most recent match, which snapped a difficult run that included three losses in six games over the past month. Their last five results show a side that is inconsistent, alternating between wins and losses without a clear run of form. The 1-1 draw against Palmeiras in the first leg was a solid point, but they lost to lower-ranked Ameliano in between, which highlights fragility against pressing sides. Coach Ariel Holan’s 3-4-2-1 gives them defensive solidity in theory, but they concede when opponents press high.
Palmeiras’ most recent outing was a 2-3 loss to Fluminense, which followed a 0-0 draw with Internacional. To be honest, their last five results are mixed: they beat Fortaleza 3-0, then lost to the same opponent 2-3, drew with Cerro 1-1, drew with Internacional, and then lost to Fluminense. The inconsistency in results is notable, but the underlying shot numbers and pass accuracy show a team that creates consistently. The Fluminense defeat will sting and Ferreira will demand a response in a must-progress knockout tie.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Cerro Porteno | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 7 | 9 |
| Total shots | 79 | 111 |
| Free kicks | 67 | 82 |
| Corner kicks | 19 | 35 |
| Total fouls | 72 | 66 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 1825 | 2281 |
| Interceptions | 51 | 63 |
| Offsides | 11 | 15 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Palmeiras the favourite
- Moneyline Cerro Porteno 5.20 | Palmeiras 1.71
- Draw 3.50
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The market heavily backs Palmeiras, and the odds reflect the bookmakers’ 53% win probability for the Brazilian side. Cerro at 5.20 (Pinnacle) carries some value given their home ground advantage and the group stage win over Palmeiras earlier this year, but the aggregate context and Palmeiras’ superior squad depth make that price fair rather than generous. The draw at 3.50 is interesting if you expect Cerro to sit deep and force extra time, though Palmeiras’ attacking output makes a goalless stalemate unlikely.
Cerro Porteno. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Cerro Porteno possible starting eleven
- GK: Manuel Roffo
- DF: Gustavo Velázquez, Matías Pérez, Fabricio Domínguez, Guillermo Benitez, Lucas Ariel Quintana
- MF: Jorge Morel, Pablo Gamarra, Cecilio Domínguez, Carlos Daniel Franco Santacruz
- FW: Pablo Vegetti
Holan’s preferred 3-4-2-1 places three centre-backs with Velázquez as the most used defender across six matches. Roffo starts in goal with the most appearances. Jorge Morel is the key creative force in midfield, with 2 goals and 12 shots across five games. Pablo Vegetti leads the line and, despite modest goal output, is the most active forward in terms of shots and link-up play. Cecilio Domínguez provides an assist threat from the wide midfield role.
Palmeiras possible starting eleven
- GK: Carlos Miguel
- DF: Murilo Cerqueira Paim, Alexander Barboza, Agustin Giay, Arthur Gabriel
- MF: Marlon Freitas, Andreas Pereira, Emiliano Martínez, Joaquín Piquerez
- FW: José Manuel López, Jhon Arias
Ferreira lines up in a 4-1-4-1 shape with Carlos Miguel as first-choice goalkeeper, appearing in all six tracked matches. Marlon Freitas anchors the midfield with 9 interceptions and 362 passes, making him the engine of Palmeiras’ build-up. Andreas Pereira carries two red cards in six games, a disciplinary risk in a tight knockout. José Manuel López is the primary goal threat with 4 goals and 16 shots, and Jhon Arias adds 13 free-kick attempts and 8 offsides, showing his aggressive forward runs. Alexander Barboza’s 15 interceptions at the back make him the defensive anchor.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Palmeiras. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Palmeiras are the right side to back here. Their shot volume, passing precision, and corner dominance across recent matches all point to a team capable of breaking down Cerro’s defensive block. The first leg at 1-1 means Palmeiras must push for a win, and their attack, led by López and Arias, has the tools to deliver. Cerro will fight and the home crowd will push them, but their form over the last 30 days, three losses in six, does not inspire confidence for a clean sheet. We predict a 2-1 Palmeiras win, with both teams scoring and the match producing at least three goals. The BTTS and over 2.5 combination offers solid value at current prices.
