During the second day of this week’s UEFA Champions League, fans will virtually visit Azerbaijan, Norway, Belgium and Greece. Teams from these countries are rarely seen in the play-offs of Europe’s most prestigious club tournament, so their motivation will be incredible. What should we expect and which betting options to consider? The TipsGG analytics team helps you break it down.
Qarabağ vs Newcastle
Qarabağ, who have reached the Champions League play-offs for the first time in their history, will host Newcastle. For the Baku club this is already a historic achievement, but they are unlikely to stop here — especially given their confident home performances.
Home results were the key to the Stallions’ success in the group stage. At the Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Qarabağ collected 7 out of 10 possible points — two wins, one draw and one defeat. Notably, one of their opponents was already an English side — London’s Chelsea, with whom the Baku side played out an entertaining draw (2:2). Overall, three of Qarabağ’s four home matches were extremely high-scoring — 5, 6 and 4 goals respectively. Only one game ended with two goals, and in that case only one team scored. This indicates the hosts’ bold playing model: they are not afraid to play openly even against high-profile opponents.
Newcastle approach the tie as favourites, but the Magpies’ away performances this season cannot be called convincing. Across all competitions away from St James’ Park, the team have 5 wins, 6 draws and 8 defeats — it is precisely this instability on the road that often hinders their progress. In the Champions League the results look somewhat better: one win, two draws and one defeat. Importantly, in three of the four matches involving the English side, both teams scored, highlighting their attacking intent but also defensive vulnerabilities.
Despite Newcastle’s obvious advantage in class and squad depth, the first match in Baku is unlikely to be easy for the visitors. Qarabağ have already proven they can compete at home even against more prestigious opponents. Given the hosts’ open style and the English club’s tendency to show less-than-ideal performances away, I expect goals from both sides.
Prediction: Both Teams to Score – Yes (odds 1.85)
Bodø/Glimt vs Inter
Bodø/Glimt lost the Eliteserien title for the first time in three years, finishing just one point behind Viking. While the Norwegian championship is in the off-season, the runners-up continue their European fairy tale. Despite the lack of match practice, the Norwegians created a real sensation: they collected 7 points in the last three rounds of the League Phase against giants such as Atlético, Manchester City and Borussia Dortmund. With 9 points in total, they deservedly reached the play-offs. In this match Bodø/Glimt are considered underdogs, facing last season’s finalists, but writing them off early would be a mistake.
Inter are on fire right now. The controversial red card to a Juventus player helped the Nerazzurri feel more confident and edge out their eternal rivals (3:2) last weekend. The gap to Milan does not yet allow for errors (8 points, though the Rossoneri have a game in hand). Cristian Chivu is successfully rotating the squad while keeping the treble in sight. A run of 6 consecutive wins across all competitions is the best proof of that. But will the Norwegians’ freshness become the decisive factor?
In my opinion, we are in for an exchange of goals. Bodø/Glimt are forced to take risks and press as hosts, because counting on a positive result at San Siro will be extremely difficult. At the same time, Inter are simply higher in class and will definitely find gaps in the Norwegian defence.
Prediction: Both Teams to Score – Yes (odds 1.60)
Club Brugge vs Atlético Madrid
The Belgian club approach the match on a wave of success, with two consecutive wins. They have already secured their place in the Jupiler Pro League championship group, so now they can fully focus on the Champions League. Ivan Leko’s side finished the League Phase with an impressive 3:0 thrashing of Marseille. Interestingly, that defeat proved fatal for the French side: after Anatoliy Trubin’s goal in the parallel match against Real, Marseille exited the tournament, losing their play-off spot.
As for the Mattress Makers, in the last La Liga round they lost to Rayo Vallecano (0:3). However, this result should not be misleading: midweek, Diego Simeone’s team destroyed Barcelona (4:0) in the cup, so a deep reserve side was fielded in the league. Clearly, Madrid have prioritised cup competitions.
In 2022, Club Brugge already met Atlético in the Champions League group stage. Back then the Flemish side collected 4 points in the two meetings, allowing them to progress while the Spaniards sensationally finished bottom.
We saw Atlético’s cup mood just days earlier, so an interesting option looks to be yellow cards. The hosts average 1.4 bookings per game in the current campaign, the visitors 2.1. Madrid will most likely start aggressively, trying to seize initiative from the first minutes. I expect an emotional game with a high number of fouls.
Prediction: Total Yellow Cards Over 2.5 (odds 1.65)
Olympiacos vs Bayer Leverkusen
The Piraeus side collected only one point in their last two rounds of the Greek Super League and lost the lead. However, relegation from the championship group is not a threat — a 14-point gap over Panathinaikos looks rock-solid. The Legends finished the Champions League League Phase with a run of three wins (including against Bayer), securing a comfortable mid-table position.
The Aspirin-makers are unbeaten in their last 6 matches. The last team to upset them was none other than Olympiacos. Back then in Greece the Germans dominated but horrific finishing prevented them from even getting a draw. In the last Bundesliga round, Leverkusen thrashed St. Pauli (4:0) and are now breathing down Stuttgart’s neck, trailing the Champions League zone by just 3 points (with a game in hand).
I think the German club has learned lessons from the previous meeting and this time will be able to contain the Greeks’ early pressure. I lean towards both teams scoring, and the outcome could be a high-scoring draw.
Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen Double Chance (X2) + Both Teams to Score – Yes (odds 2.45)