Levi Rothermund
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Two of Europe’s most decorated sides open their Nations League campaign against each other, and honestly, the timing feels a bit brutal for both. Roberto Mancini’s Italy have won their last two matches by the same 1-0 scoreline, grinding out results rather than dazzling. Mark van Bommel’s Belgium arrive fresh off a 1-2 defeat to Spain that snapped a run of three straight wins where they scored twelve goals combined. This one has the feel of a cagey opener that could turn on a single mistake.
An interesting wrinkle here: Belgium have been far more free-scoring lately, netting in bunches against USA, Senegal and New Zealand, while Italy have kept things tight but low-scoring. That contrast in styles, one team banking clean sheets and the other chasing goals, is worth watching closely once the ball rolls.
Keep an eye on Federico Chiesa for Italy. His pace against Belgium’s backline could be the difference between a scrappy draw and a home win. On the other side, Kevin De Bruyne remains the heartbeat of everything Belgium try to build, and when he’s on song, even a shaky defensive unit becomes irrelevant.
Hot stat: Italy shipped five goals to Bosnia and Herzegovina back in April, a side ranked well below them on paper. That defensive hiccup is the kind of thing Belgium’s attack, which scored 12 goals across three matches before the Spain loss, will be looking to exploit.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 1 |
| 🗓️ Date: | 25.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Italy vs Belgium prediction
We lean towards Italy here, but not by much. The Azzurri have found a way to win ugly recently, and two 1-0 results in a row suggest a defense that has tightened up under Mancini even if the attack looks a little blunt. Belgium, meanwhile, just lost to Spain and their form has wobbled between wins and draws over the last month rather than showing real consistency.
Our take: back Italy to edge this narrowly, maybe 1-0 or 2-1, with goals hard to come by early. Belgium’s attack is dangerous in transition, but Italy’s structure at home should limit the space De Bruyne and company need to operate.
Style-wise, Italy tend to play a patient, foul-conscious game, rarely picking up cards early and controlling possession in midfield. Belgium press higher and commit more bodies forward, which can leave gaps but also generates more shots and corners. Expect a physical midfield battle with a handful of yellow cards, and fewer clear-cut chances than the raw talent on show might suggest.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Italy to win either half |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Italy’s last outing was a narrow 1-0 win over Greece, their second consecutive match won by that exact scoreline after beating Luxembourg. Before that stretch, though, things looked far less controlled: a 2-5 collapse against Bosnia and Herzegovina and a 1-4 defeat to Norway exposed real defensive issues earlier this year. The recent pair of clean sheets suggests Mancini has addressed some of that, but the underlying attack still isn’t creating much, and one-goal margins leave little room for error against a team like Belgium.
Belgium head into this off the back of a 1-2 loss to Spain, a result that halted a productive run where they scored 4, 3 and 5 goals in consecutive wins over USA, Senegal and New Zealand respectively. That attacking output is real, but the Spain defeat and an earlier scoreless draw with Iran show this Belgium side can go quiet just as easily as they can explode. Van Bommel’s group looks capable of scoring in bunches, but not always reliable defensively when facing a well-organized opponent.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Italy | Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 2 meetings) | 3 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Italy vs Belgium stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Italy the favourite
- Moneyline Italy 2.12 | Belgium 3.22
- Draw 3.52
Bookmakers give Italy roughly a 44% implied chance, with the draw sitting around 27% and Belgium at 29%. That price gap feels fair to us. Italy’s home advantage and recent clean-sheet run edge them ahead, but Belgium’s raw attacking output keeps their odds from drifting much higher. We wouldn’t be shocked by a draw either, given how tight the last two head-to-head meetings have been.
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Italy. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our punters team is siding with Italy on a narrow scoreline, most likely 1-0 or 2-1. The two straight 1-0 wins give us confidence in their defensive shape right now, even if the goals dried up a bit. Belgium’s attack is sharper on paper, but coming off a loss to Spain and with a defense that occasionally leaks (see the Iran draw and the Spain defeat), we think Italy’s control at home tips this one in their favor. Under 2.5 goals and no BTTS feel like the smarter routes rather than chasing Belgium’s more explosive recent scorelines.
Read Also: Predicted Lineups: Italy vs Belgium – Expected XIs and Team News
