Alex MacQuoid
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Trabzonspor go into this one riding real momentum, three wins from their last four, while Hearts arrive bruised after shipping seven at Celtic Park last weekend. It’s a strange contrast for a Conference League group fixture: a Turkish side building belief at home against a Scottish club still searching for defensive stability after a brutal week. Both sides actually sit on opposite ends of this early League Phase table too, Trabzonspor at six with a 4-2 opening win, Hearts down in fifteenth after a scrappy 1-1 draw. Honestly, the gap in current form looks wider than the table suggests.
Mohamed Salah has been the standout attacking threat for Trabzonspor across the last five games, two goals and two assists from three appearances, and his movement off the left could be a real problem for a tired Hearts back line. On the other side, Josh Mcpake has quietly been Hearts’ most productive forward, a goal, an assist, and twelve shots in his last three outings, he’s the one player capable of giving the away side a foothold here.
Hot stat: Hearts have conceded seven goals in a single match this month against Celtic, their heaviest defeat of the season by some distance, and it’s hard to see that defensive line settling down against a Trabzonspor attack that’s scored thirteen goals across its own last five matches.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Papara Park, Trabzon |
| 🗓️ Date: | 22.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:45 CEST |
Trabzonspor vs Hearts prediction
We’re leaning Trabzonspor win with over 2.5 total goals here, and honestly it’s not a close call for us. Trabzonspor have scored in every one of their last five matches, three wins and four-plus goals twice, and they’re playing at home against a Hearts side that just conceded seven in a game they couldn’t get out of their own half for long stretches. The 70% implied probability from the market feels about right, maybe even a touch generous to Hearts given how open that Celtic game left their backline looking.
Style-wise this should suit a high-tempo game. Trabzonspor have committed only 39 fouls and picked up just three yellows across their last five matches, a side that presses without fouling much, which usually means they keep the ball moving forward rather than stopping play. Hearts meanwhile sit on 38 fouls and six yellows in the same stretch, slightly more cynical, and they’ve also conceded a red card-free run compared to Trabzonspor’s one dismissal. Passing numbers favour the hosts clearly too, roughly 83% completion against Hearts’ 80%, and that edge in possession control, paired with 19 corners won versus Hearts’ 15, points to a Trabzonspor side that should dominate territory for most of the ninety minutes.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Trabzonspor to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Trabzonspor’s last outing was a comfortable 2-0 home win over Besiktas, a result that extends a run where they’ve won four of their last five. Before that it was a 4-2 thriller against KuPs, a 3-0 statement win over Samsunspor, and a narrow 0-1 slip against Drogheda, the only blemish in that stretch. The pattern here is clear: this team scores freely at home and rarely goes more than one match without finding the net. In our preview of Trabzonspor vs Besiktas we leaned toward the away side grabbing the win behind their attacking depth, but Trabzonspor’s 2-0 victory went against that call entirely, a reminder that this squad has sharpened up considerably since.
Hearts’ form tells a messier story. Their last match was that 1-7 collapse away at Celtic, preceded by a 1-1 draw with Nordsjaelland, a 5-0 win over Saint Mirren, and draws against Kilmarnock and Falkirk before that. There’s real inconsistency in these results, wins against weaker domestic sides mixed with a total breakdown against a genuine quality opponent. That Celtic scoreline is going to linger in the squad’s mind heading into Trabzon. In our preview of Celtic vs Hearts we called a Celtic win with goals at both ends and a total climbing past 2.5, and the eventual 7-1 scoreline delivered on every part of that, Celtic won comfortably, both sides scored, and the goal count flew well past our number.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
There’s no recent competitive meeting between these two clubs in our records, this fixture marks a fresh pairing in European competition, so there’s no head-to-head table to lean on here.
🚨Check out our dedicated Trabzonspor vs Hearts stats page for more info.
Hearts. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Trabzonspor the favourite
- Moneyline Trabzonspor 1.35 | Hearts 7.07
- Draw 5.54
The market has this nearly settled before kickoff, Trabzonspor priced around 1.35 against Hearts’ 7.00-plus, and we don’t think that’s overblown. Home advantage at Papara Park, a hot attacking run, and Hearts’ leaky defense all point the same direction. The draw price near 5.5 feels like the only real value play if you want to hedge against a Trabzonspor side that sometimes takes its foot off the gas once ahead, but our money stays with the hosts.
Possible Starting Lineups
Trabzonspor possible starting eleven
- GK: André Onana
- DF: Wagner Pina, Cenk Ozkacar, Chibuike Nwaiwu, Stefan Savić
- MF: Fabio Henrique Tavares, Ozan Tufan
- FW: Ernest Muci, Mohamed Salah, Franculino Gluda Dju, Paul Onuachu
Thomas Reis should stick with the 4-2-3-1 that’s worked across the last five games. Onana’s the clear starter in goal, full minutes in every match he’s played, and the double pivot of Tavares and Tufan gives balance between defensive cover and ball progression. Up top, Salah and Gluda Dju are the two names to watch, five goals and three assists combined between them in the last three matches, with Onuachu as the physical focal point through the middle.
Hearts possible starting eleven
- GK: Beau Reus
- DF: Jamie McCart, Malachi Walcott, Harry Milne, Stephen Kingsley
- MF: Laurent Mendy, Jordi Altena
- FW: Calvin Miller, Josh Mcpake, James Wilson, Claudio Rafael Soares Braga
Wouter Vrancken also runs a 4-2-3-1, and Beau Reus keeps his spot after playing every minute across the last three matches despite the heavy concession against Celtic. McCart and Walcott have barely missed a minute at the back, so expect continuity there even after the result in Glasgow. Mcpake is the one to watch going forward, most shots on the team and directly involved in two of Hearts’ recent goals, though Calvin Miller’s two yellow cards in three games is a discipline concern worth flagging given how physical this away trip could get.
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Trabzonspor. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We’re backing Trabzonspor here, and not cautiously either. Their attacking numbers over the last five matches, thirteen goals, strong corner count, clean disciplinary record, all point toward a side peaking at the right time. Hearts just don’t look capable of containing this right now, not after what happened at Celtic Park, and the travel plus fixture congestion only adds to their problems. Our lean is Trabzonspor to win and cover both halves, with the total goals market pushing past 2.5 fairly comfortably. We wouldn’t be shocked by something close to a 3-0 or 3-1 scoreline honestly, Trabzonspor’s home form has been that strong lately.
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