Celtic vs Hearts Prediction: 18.10.2026 Scottish Premiership

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Celtic welcome Hearts to Celtic Park on the back of a rough European week, and honestly, this fixture arrives at a weird moment. Celtic sit top of the Scottish Premiership on 21 points from eight games, still miles ahead on paper, yet they’ve lost three of their last four outings everywhere. Hearts, meanwhile, are the division’s surprise package in third, scoring goals for fun under Wouter Vrancken and unbeaten in their own recent run. The interesting wrinkle here: Hearts have actually outscored Celtic 19-16 across the league campaign so far despite having two fewer points, which tells you their attack is every bit as sharp as the table suggests, maybe sharper.

Keep an eye on Callum McGregor, who’s logged every minute available for Celtic in the last month and still dictates tempo better than anyone else in green and white. On the other side, Calvin Miller has been Hearts’ quiet weapon lately, two goals and an assist in his last three starts from a deeper midfield role, and he tends to pop up exactly where Celtic’s double pivot doesn’t expect him.

Hot stat: Hearts have scored seven goals across their last five matches in all competitions, including a 5-0 demolition of Saint Mirren, while conceding at a far slower rate than their attack suggests. Celtic, by contrast, managed just three goals in their equivalent stretch and shipped four in a single half against Benfica. The goal-difference gap between these two sides right now is smaller than most would guess.

Celtic vs Hearts prediction

We lean Celtic here, but not with the swagger the bookmakers’ 64% implied probability suggests. Celtic Park carries weight on its own, and Celtic have won 30 of 46 matches this calendar year, a 65% win rate that dwarfs anything Hearts have produced. Still, this Hearts side isn’t the same one that used to crumble on the road against the Hoops. They’ve drawn two of their last three and lost none of them, a sign of a team that doesn’t fold under pressure anymore. Our pick for value is Celtic to win but with goals at both ends, the home side’s recent defensive wobbles (four conceded to Benfica alone) paired with Hearts’ attacking output make a clean sheet unlikely for either goalkeeper.

Stylistically these two clash in an interesting way. Hearts have picked up seven yellow cards in their last five games compared to Celtic’s four, and their foul count sits slightly higher too (47 vs 45), suggesting Vrancken’s side is willing to scrap physically rather than just pass around trouble. Celtic’s passing numbers remain superior, over 2,200 attempted passes in the sample versus Hearts’ 1,329, which points to Celtic dominating possession but Hearts happy to sit compact, foul when needed, and strike on the counter or from set pieces. That combination, a possession-heavy home side against a physical, clinical away team, usually produces goals late when legs tire and gaps open.

Team Analysis

Celtic’s last five results read like a team hitting a wall after a long unbeaten stretch. The 1-4 defeat to Benfica away is the headline, a scoreline that exposed a defense missing its usual sharpness against elite opposition. Before that there was a routine 2-0 home win over Motherwell, sandwiched between two separate losses to Rangers (0-1 and 0-3) and a 1-3 defeat to Ferencvaros. In our preview of Benfica vs Celtic we backed the Portuguese side to win comfortably with goals flowing past 2.5, and the eventual 4-1 scoreline delivered exactly that, margin and total both landing. That form against top-tier sides should worry Celtic fans more than the raw league table does.

Hearts arrive in better spirits. Their last match, a 1-1 draw away to Nordsjaelland, kept an unbeaten run intact even if it wasn’t the result they wanted. Before that, a 5-0 thumping of Saint Mirren showed exactly what this front line can do when space opens up, and draws against Kilmarnock and defeats to nobody outside that round out a fairly solid month. In our preview of Hearts vs Nordsjaelland we called a comfortable Hearts win with goals over 2.5 and BTTS No, but the match finished 1-1 with both sides scoring, so that one went against us. Hearts’ attack didn’t fire the way we expected, and honestly, that’s a small red flag heading into a trickier away day at Celtic Park.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

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Pre-game odds and win probability: Celtic the favourite

• Moneyline Celtic 1.57 | Hearts 4.68
• Draw 4.43

Markets clearly expect a home win, and the gap between Celtic’s price and Hearts’ says plenty about how bookmakers weigh home advantage at Celtic Park, even against a side performing above expectations this season. We’d argue the draw price looks a little generous given how open both teams tend to play, but backing the favourite outright at odds this short rarely excites us. The smarter route, in our view, is building around goals rather than just the result.

Possible Starting Lineups

Celtic possible starting eleven

Sinisalo has started every match in this sample and should keep his place despite the Benfica mauling. Tierney and Donovan give width down both flanks while Scales and Trusty hold the middle. McGregor’s minutes count speaks for itself, he simply doesn’t come off, and Baur partners him to free up Duran, who’s been Celtic’s most productive forward with two goals from his 324 minutes. Expect the usual 4-2-3-1 shape with Nygren and Tounekti drifting in behind Duran.

Hearts possible starting eleven

Reus has racked up the most minutes between the posts recently and should start ahead of Fulton. McCart and Milne anchor a back four that’s held up reasonably well, while Mendy and Borchgrevink screen in front, leaving Miller license to join the attack, something he’s clearly thrived on given his recent scoring form. Wilson and Mcpake carry the attacking threat in a 4-2-3-1 that mirrors Celtic’s own setup, which should make midfield the real battleground.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

We think Celtic edge this one at home, but not without conceding. Their defensive numbers have dipped at the worst possible time, and Hearts have scored in nearly every match they’ve played over the last month. Our call: Celtic to win, both teams to score, and the total goals climbing past 2.5. The corner count should run high too given how open both sides play when chasing the game. It won’t be the routine home banker the odds imply, honestly we’d be surprised if this stays goalless for either side past the hour mark.

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