Alex MacQuoid
Stjarnan and Breidablik meet at Samsung Vollurinn in Gardabaer on June 16, with the hosts sitting 9th in the Besta deild karla table and Breidablik comfortably in 4th. The gap between these two sides is real and measurable — Breidablik have 15 points from 9 games, Stjarnan just 10 from 10. What makes this fixture genuinely interesting is the head-to-head record: Breidablik have won five of the last six encounters between these clubs, with that one exception being a 2-2 draw back in the 2024 Regular Season. Stjarnan have not beaten Breidablik since at least 2024, and there’s nothing in the current form or standings to suggest that changes tonight.
Keep an eye on Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson up front for Breidablik — four goals in three recent appearances is a number that demands attention, and he’s been getting into dangerous positions consistently. For Stjarnan, midfielder Jóhann Árni Gunnarsson has been one of the more active presences in the middle, accumulating assists and covering ground, though his three yellow cards in four games tell their own story about how he goes about his work.
Hot stat: Breidablik have scored 11 goals across their last five matches, averaging 2.2 per game, and have racked up 22 corner kicks in that same span — the highest corner count of either side here. They are generating volume and converting it.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Besta deild karla 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Samsung Vollurinn, Gardabaer |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:15 CEST |
Stjarnan vs Breidablik prediction
Breidablik to win is the call here. The bookmakers have them as favourites at roughly 44% implied probability, and the underlying data backs that up. Breidablik’s recent form over the last 30 days reads two wins and two losses from four games — not spectacular, but their overall 2026 campaign (17 matches, 8 wins, 47% winrate) shows a team that competes consistently. Stjarnan, by contrast, have won just two of their last six and carry a form string reading llwwwllllwdllwl from right to left — there’s a lot of red in there.
The style-of-play breakdown adds texture to this. Breidablik have committed only 32 fouls across their last five games compared to Stjarnan’s 43. Stjarnan have also picked up 10 yellow cards in that period against Breidablik’s 5, which hints at a team under pressure and scrambling defensively. Stjarnan’s pass accuracy sits at 1557 completed passes from 1854 attempted — Breidablik’s numbers are lower in volume (1094 from 1348) but they’re a more direct, efficient side. That directness, combined with their corner threat (22 vs Stjarnan’s 15), suggests Breidablik will create the more dangerous situations in this match. We think the Breidablik win at odds around 2.12-2.20 represents the best value on the board.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Breidablik to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Stjarnan’s recent run is hard to dress up. They lost to Afturelding 1-3 in their most recent outing — a result against a side ranked well outside the top tier that tells you something about where their confidence is right now. Before that, a 3-1 win over bottom-half Thor Akureyri offered brief relief, but the 1-3 home loss to league leaders Vikingur Reykjavik and a 0-1 defeat to Fram before it underline the pattern. Against quality opposition, Stjarnan concede. Their one bright spot is that they’ve managed 18 goals in 10 league games, so there’s attacking intent — but 22 conceded in the same stretch is the number that matters more tonight. Daniel Finns Matthiasson has a free-kick goal to his name in recent games and Haukur brink has contributed from defensive positions, which at least shows they can find the net from varied sources.
Breidablik’s last result was a comfortable 3-0 win over Aegir, and that followed a 3-4 loss to Fram — a match where they scored three but couldn’t hold a lead. The game before that was arguably their best of the season: a 6-3 demolition of KR Reykjavik, a side sitting 2nd in the table. Agon Bjarnason has been directly involved in four goals (one scored, three assisted) across three games, and Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson has added two goals from midfield. Ivar Orn Arnason, listed as a defender, has also contributed two goals — Breidablik get numbers forward and it shows in the stats. Their 4-2-3-1 shape gives them width and vertical options, and Anton Ari Einarsson in goal has been reasonably solid with 14 saves across three matches.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
The head-to-head record between these clubs is one-sided. Breidablik have won five of the last six meetings, and in most of those games Stjarnan were actually the bookmakers’ favourite or at least evenly priced — yet the results consistently went the other way. The aggregate score across these six fixtures reads something like Stjarnan 8, Breidablik 15. That’s a significant gap.
| Statistic | Stjarnan | Breidablik |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 8 | 15 |
| Total shots | 55 | 53 |
| Free kicks | 53 | 27 |
| Corner kicks | 15 | 22 |
| Total fouls | 43 | 32 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 84% | 81% |
| Interceptions | 26 | 27 |
| Offsides | 6 | 9 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Stjarnan vs Breidablik stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Breidablik the favourite
- Moneyline Stjarnan 2.76 | Breidablik 2.12
- Draw 4.29
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
Pinnacle’s lines are the sharpest reference point here. Breidablik at 2.12 reflects a roughly 47% implied probability, which honestly feels about right given the h2h record and Stjarnan’s current form. The draw at 4.29 is long and probably correctly so — these two sides have drawn just once in six meetings. Stjarnan at 2.76 is a price that might tempt some given the home advantage, but the data doesn’t support it. If anything, the Breidablik win looks slightly underpriced given how consistently they’ve handled this fixture. The 3.95-4.00 on the draw at Stake or Vave is the only line that could be called genuinely generous, but we’d leave it alone.
Stjarnan. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Stjarnan possible starting eleven
- GK: Arni Snaer Olafsson
- DF: Guðmundur Kristjánsson, Sindri Þór Ingimarsson, Damil Dankerlui, Haukur brink
- MF: Jóhann Árni Gunnarsson, Guðmundur Baldvin Nökkvason, Daniel Finns Matthiasson
- FW: Birnir Snaer Ingason, Emil Atlason, Andri Rúnar Bjarnason
Stjarnan have been running a 4-2-3-1 shape and that’s unlikely to change here. Arni Snaer Olafsson gets the nod in goal with 19 saves across four appearances. The back four picks itself based on minutes played — Kristjánsson, Ingimarsson, Dankerlui, and Haukur brink, the latter having contributed a goal from deep. Jóhann Árni Gunnarsson anchors the midfield and is arguably Stjarnan’s most complete player right now despite the card accumulation. Daniel Finns Matthiasson is worth watching — he has a free-kick goal and the most shots among the midfield group. Up front, Birnir Snaer Ingason leads in shot attempts with nine across four games, though converting those into goals has been the issue.
Breidablik possible starting eleven
- GK: Anton Ari Einarsson
- DF: Ivar Orn Arnason, David Ingvarsson, Viktor Orn Margeirsson, Oli Valur Omarsson
- MF: Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson, Anton Logi Ludviksson, Viktor Karl Einarsson
- FW: Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson, Aron Bjarnason, Hoskuldur Gunnlaugsson
Breidablik’s 4-2-3-1 mirrors Stjarnan’s setup on paper, but the personnel quality is markedly higher right now. Anton Ari Einarsson has been consistent in goal. The back four includes Ivar Orn Arnason — a defender with two goals in three games, which is unusual and useful. Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson in midfield carries a genuine threat: two goals, one assist, and six interceptions across three matches. The attacking line is where Breidablik really separate themselves. Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson with four goals in three games is the player Stjarnan’s defence will need to account for above everyone else, and Aron Bjarnason’s three assists show he’s the creative engine that sets those chances up. Maybe the most dangerous attacking unit in this division outside of Vikingur right now.
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Breidablik. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We’re going with Breidablik to win this one. The head-to-head record is the loudest signal — five wins from six meetings, including results where Stjarnan were priced as favourites. Add to that Stjarnan’s current form (two wins from six in the last 30 days), their defensive numbers (22 goals conceded in 10 league games), and the disciplinary issues piling up in midfield, and you have a team that looks fragile at the wrong moment. Breidablik are not in perfect form either — that 3-4 loss to Fram is worth acknowledging — but their attacking output across five games (11 goals, 22 corners) points to a side that creates problems consistently. Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson and Aron Bjarnason are a combination Stjarnan’s back line has no obvious answer to. Both teams to score is also worth including given Stjarnan’s 18-goal attacking return, and over 2.5 total goals fits the profile of every recent h2h between these sides. Breidablik win, both teams score, goals over 2.5. That’s the ticket.
