Following first three stages of the high-stakes action at The StarLadder Budapest Major we’ve collected 9,428 unique predictions to bring you the definitive data recap of the tournament so far. We’re going to break down performance through four extensive tables. From honoring the sharpest minds on our Tipster Leaderboards to exposing the Consensus Flops that burned the most brackets, we’re revealing which teams performed best in the past three stages of chaos and which crumbled under Team Volatility before the main stage even began.
Brief Recap of the Stages 1-3
The headline story across all three stages was undoubtedly FaZe’s remarkable run – a run that almost ended just 0.5 seconds into Stage 1. In their 1:2 match against Red Canids, FaZe dropped their own map pick and found themselves a breath away from elimination. On the opponent’s map, facing match point and with the tournament slipping away on only Day 3, they managed to defuse the bomb with half a second left on the clock. That single moment kept them alive – and it changed everything.
From there, FaZe powered into Stage 2 and swept it decisively with a clean 3:0 record. Stage 3 began just as confidently: they opened with a victory over Vitality, the world’s No. 2 team at the time, despite sitting only 12th in the rankings themselves. But momentum shifted quickly – FaZe dropped their next two matches, once again ending up on the brink of elimination. And yet, as has happened so many times before, the famous FaZe Magic resurfaced. They pulled themselves together, clutched key moments, and secured another unforgettable qualification to the Major playoffs.
The only other team to start earlier than Stage 3 was Natus Vincere, who entered the competition in Stage 2. Their run through that phase was even more convincing than FaZe’s – dominant, confident, and controlled. However, Stage 3 immediately tested them. In their opening match, they faced the tournament’s biggest favourites and the world’s current No. 1 team – FURIA – who crushed them with a stunning 12:0 first half. Even so, NaVi recovered, fought through several tense series, and ultimately secured their playoff spot through the 2–2 pool.
As mentioned, all remaining teams that advanced to the playoffs started directly from Stage 3. FURIA, after defeating NaVi, went on to demolish two more opponents and became the first lineup to qualify with a dominant 3:0 record. Team Spirit followed them, though their path was far more demanding. Their final match was against MOUZ, a powerhouse roster playing with additional momentum thanks to a home-crowd favourite on stage. In a nail-biter that went down to the final map, Spirit edged out a 13:11 victory and secured the second playoff slot.
MOUZ, despite the setback, bounced back strongly. They defeated Falcons – another high-calibre team – and earned their qualification with a 3:1 record. Alongside them came Vitality, who clinched their playoff berth with a win over Natus Vincere, and The Mongolz, surprising many with their confident form after roster change and impressive 3:1 finish versus G2.
Finally, joining the previously mentioned FaZe and NaVi, the last team to qualify for the playoffs was Falcons. Their decisive match came against G2, turning into an emotional showdown between the Kovac brothers – NiKo and huNter-. The duel delivered exactly the kind of intensity worthy of closing out all the group-stage drama.
Tipster Leaderboard
How this works
We count total bets placed, wins landed, win rate, profit earned, and return on investment (ROI). Simple. The table below shows who made money – and who just made noise.
| Tipster | Total Bets | Wins | Win Rate (%) | Profit | ROI (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dog | 19 | 17 | 89.5 | 5.2 | 27.37 |
| stawraith | 6 | 5 | 83.3 | 1.5 | 25.00 |
| Jur Dava | 15 | 10 | 66.7 | 3.6 | 24.00 |
| FalleN | 13 | 9 | 69.2 | 3.0 | 23.08 |
| ErixonCS | 13 | 10 | 76.9 | 2.7 | 20.77 |
| Mkaelovich | 13 | 10 | 76.9 | 2.6 | 20.00 |
| M4MBA | 31 | 24 | 77.4 | 6.1 | 19.68 |
| DeaD | 22 | 18 | 81.8 | 3.8 | 17.27 |
| Shyux | 9 | 6 | 66.7 | 1.5 | 16.67 |
| Patryk Stachowiak | 72 | 52 | 72.2 | 12.0 | 16.67 |
| CS Balkan | 37 | 28 | 75.7 | 6.1 | 16.49 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko | 13 | 10 | 76.9 | 2.1 | 16.15 |
| Kaustavmani Choudhury | 52 | 37 | 71.2 | 7.2 | 13.85 |
| YNk | 37 | 27 | 73.0 | 5.1 | 13.78 |
| lmbt | 23 | 18 | 78.3 | 2.6 | 11.30 |
| batu | 36 | 25 | 69.4 | 3.7 | 10.28 |
| Dirty Roman | 13 | 8 | 61.5 | 1.3 | 10.00 |
| Bopomo GZ CS2 | 75 | 54 | 72.0 | 6.8 | 9.07 |
| Lady Peek | 51 | 36 | 70.6 | 4.2 | 8.24 |
| Never Forget | 16 | 12 | 75.0 | 1.2 | 7.50 |
| SlaxerCast | 70 | 50 | 71.4 | 4.9 | 7.00 |
| Luis Tadeu | 32 | 20 | 62.5 | 2.2 | 6.88 |
| KoZiaR | 23 | 16 | 69.6 | 1.5 | 6.52 |
| Valve Rating System | 66 | 45 | 68.2 | 4.3 | 6.52 |
| Smash | 28 | 19 | 67.9 | 1.8 | 6.43 |
| SPUNJ | 53 | 36 | 67.9 | 3.4 | 6.42 |
| Leonardo Biazzi | 30 | 21 | 70.0 | 1.9 | 6.33 |
| Sonu Banerjee | 21 | 16 | 76.2 | 1.3 | 6.19 |
| Leniniw | 74 | 53 | 71.6 | 4.5 | 6.08 |
| Choke Gaming | 76 | 51 | 67.1 | 4.1 | 5.39 |
| statsmeister | 60 | 39 | 65.0 | 3.0 | 5.00 |
| Ceen Chokxx Live | 71 | 49 | 69.0 | 3.5 | 4.93 |
| PEACEMAKER | 65 | 46 | 70.8 | 3.2 | 4.92 |
| Kobeyachi | 75 | 51 | 68.0 | 3.4 | 4.53 |
| Notatka Treidera | 54 | 36 | 66.7 | 2.3 | 4.26 |
| Mads Wildenhoff | 20 | 15 | 75.0 | 0.8 | 4.00 |
| Mefju23 | 53 | 34 | 64.2 | 2.0 | 3.77 |
| Mauisnake | 74 | 51 | 68.9 | 2.6 | 3.51 |
| Polex Fatias | 43 | 30 | 69.8 | 1.5 | 3.49 |
| KvaN | 75 | 51 | 68.0 | 2.5 | 3.33 |
| louiecs2 | 30 | 21 | 70.0 | 0.7 | 2.33 |
| Giozerinha | 31 | 19 | 61.3 | 0.4 | 1.29 |
| Fozzii FPS | 48 | 33 | 68.8 | 0.6 | 1.25 |
Biggest Upsets
Big names fell. Underdogs bit hard. The first three stages of StarLadder Budapest Major 2025 gave us moments where the script flipped – where the team with longer odds walked away with the win. Every number here comes from the TipsGG Data Team, collected match by match, map by map. No guesses, just what happened.
| Date | Tournament Stage | Loser | Winner | Winning Odds | Matchup Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | Stage 1 | FaZe Clan | NRG | 4.16 | FaZe Clan (1.22) vs NRG (4.16) |
| 2025-12-04 | Stage 3 | Falcons Esports | B8 | 3.84 | Falcons Esports (1.25) vs B8 (3.84) |
| 2025-11-24 | Stage 1 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | NRG | 3.36 | Ninjas in Pyjamas (1.32) vs NRG (3.36) |
| 2025-12-04 | Stage 3 | Vitality | FaZe Clan | 3.28 | Vitality (1.33) vs FaZe Clan (3.28) |
| 2025-11-24 | Stage 1 | GamerLegion | RED Canids | 3.00 | GamerLegion (1.38) vs RED Canids (3.00) |
- NRG did it twice. First against Ninjas in Pyjamas, then FaZe Clan. The odds said they shouldn’t – 4.16 against FaZe is steep. They didn’t care.
- B8 beating Falcons Esports in Stage 3? That’s not supposed to happen. Falcons were favorites, B8 had a 3.84 against them. The data says B8 played smarter, not harder.
- FaZe Clan lost to NRG, then turned around and beat Vitality. Maybe they adjust fast. Maybe they don’t like being the giant.
- RED Canids at 3.00 odds against GamerLegion. Not the biggest upset, but still – GamerLegion were supposed to win. They didn’t.
Consensus Flops: When the Crowd Got It Wrong
Numbers don’t lie – but sometimes they trip. The TipsGG Data Team tracked every pick across the first three stages of the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025. Here’s where over 80% of tipsters backed the wrong horse. Some upsets were close. Others? Not even close.
Every table below pulls from real match data. No guesswork. Just results that made the consensus look foolish.
| Stage | The Consensus Pick | Flop Percentage | Total Tips | Actual Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 | FaZe Clan | 100.0% | 107 | NRG |
| Stage 1 | GamerLegion | 100.0% | 109 | RED Canids |
| Stage 1 | Lynn Vision | 98.1% | 104 | The Huns Esports |
| Stage 1 | Legacy | 97.9% | 96 | FlyQuest |
| Stage 1 | FaZe Clan | 97.8% | 91 | Ninjas in Pyjamas |
| Stage 1 | GamerLegion | 97.0% | 99 | Fluxo |
| Stage 1 | fnatic | 96.8% | 94 | Fluxo |
| Stage 2 | Aurora Gaming | 95.5% | 111 | PARIVISION |
| Stage 3 | Falcons Esports | 94.5% | 128 | B8 |
| Stage 1 | Legacy | 91.9% | 99 | B8 |
| Stage 2 | M80 | 91.5% | 94 | Imperial |
| Stage 2 | Aurora Gaming | 89.8% | 98 | FaZe Clan |
| Stage 2 | Team Liquid | 88.9% | 90 | PARIVISION |
| Stage 3 | Vitality | 87.8% | 98 | FaZe Clan |
| Stage 2 | Astralis | 87.5% | 64 | Ninjas in Pyjamas |
| Stage 1 | Legacy | 87.0% | 123 | PARIVISION |
| Stage 3 | The MongolZ | 87.0% | 100 | Imperial |
| Stage 1 | B8 | 86.6% | 82 | M80 |
| Stage 2 | 3DMAX | 86.6% | 67 | fnatic |
| Stage 2 | Aurora Gaming | 86.4% | 81 | Astralis |
| Stage 1 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 85.0% | 80 | NRG |
| Stage 3 | Team Liquid | 82.8% | 93 | Passion UA |
| Stage 2 | PARIVISION | 80.5% | 87 | TYLOO |
| Stage 1 | PARIVISION | 80.0% | 85 | M80 |
FaZe Clan appears twice in this list – both times as the team everyone expected to win. Both times they didn’t. We think the second loss to Ninjas in Pyjamas stung more. The map was Ancient. The score was 16-14. One round decided it.
GamerLegion’s double flop is worth mentioning. 100% consensus against RED Canids. 97% against Fluxo. Two different days. Same result. Maybe the tipsters saw something we didn’t – or maybe GamerLegion just had an off week.
PARIVISION keeps showing up as the underdog that bites. Three entries here. They beat Aurora Gaming, Team Liquid, and Legacy. Not bad for a team most wrote off early.
Legacy’s four appearances here tell a story. They were the consensus pick in every single one. They lost every single time. That’s not just bad luck. That’s a pattern.
Team Volatility
What This Table Actually Means
Matches Played: How many games they’ve played. More matches, more reliable the data—simple.
Chokes: Times they were favorites but lost. These are the matches that wreck parlays. Ninjas in Pyjamas choked once. FaZe Clan did it too. We think they’re better than this.
Upsets: Times they were underdogs but won. These are the matches that make you look like a genius. M80 pulled three. NRG did it twice. Maybe they’re just good at hiding it.
Chaos Score: A number between 0 and 100. The higher it is, the more this team makes you question everything. Ninjas in Pyjamas sit at 44.4%. They’re a mess. Natus Vincere? 0%. They do what they’re supposed to do.
Blind Bet Profit: If you bet $100 on this team every match, would you be up or down? B8 would’ve made you $312. Team Liquid would’ve lost you $288. Honestly, that’s brutal.
| Team | Matches Played | Chokes | Upsets | Chaos Score (%) | Blind Bet Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ninjas in Pyjamas | 9 | 1 | 3 | 44.4 🟢 | +1.14 |
| Fluxo | 5 | 0 | 2 | 40.0 🟢 | +0.10 |
| NRG | 5 | 0 | 2 | 40.0 🟢 | +2.52 |
| M80 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 37.5 🟢 | +1.57 |
| Passion UA | 10 | 0 | 3 | 30.0 🟢 | +0.09 |
| Imperial | 13 | 0 | 3 | 23.1 🟢 | -0.52 |
| B8 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 23.1 🟢 | +3.12 |
| FaZe Clan | 13 | 1 | 2 | 23.1 🟢 | +2.79 |
| 3DMAX | 9 | 0 | 2 | 22.2 🟢 | -2.07 |
| Astralis | 5 | 0 | 1 | 20.0 🔴 | -1.03 |
| Legacy | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20.0 🔴 | -2.39 |
| Falcons Esports | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20.0 🔴 | -1.41 |
| FlyQuest | 6 | 0 | 1 | 16.7 🔴 | +0.24 |
| PARIVISION | 12 | 0 | 2 | 16.7 🔴 | -1.24 |
| fnatic | 8 | 0 | 1 | 12.5 🔴 | -1.42 |
| Team Liquid | 8 | 0 | 1 | 12.5 🔴 | -2.88 |
| Natus Vincere | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 🔴 | +0.12 |
| G2 Esports | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 🔴 | -2.16 |
How to Use This Data (Without Losing Your Shirt)
🟢 Chaos Score > 40%
These teams are wild. Ninjas in Pyjamas, Fluxo, NRG. They’ll beat FaZe Clan one day, lose to Legacy the next. Betting on them is like playing roulette. If you must, bet small when they’re underdogs. Never use them as a parlay anchor.
🔴 Chaos Score < 15%
These teams are boring. In a good way. Natus Vincere, G2 Esports, fnatic. They win when they’re supposed to win. They lose when they’re supposed to lose. Perfect for parlays. If they’re favorites, they’ll probably win. If they’re underdogs, they’ll probably lose. No surprises.
💰 Blind Bet Profit is Positive
The bookies don’t get these teams right. B8, NRG, FaZe Clan. Their odds are often too high. Bet on them consistently, and you’ll come out ahead. Even if they don’t win every match, the value’s there. Maybe.
We think the numbers tell the story. No fluff, no hype. Just who won, who lost, and how surprised the books were. Follow TipsGG for more – next time, we’ll look at the overall final stats of this Major. Maybe the data will surprise you again.