St Josephs vs Bohemians Prediction: 16 July 2026 UEFA Conference League

This is a second-leg tie that is already decided in all but the formality of the result. Bohemians won the first leg 2-0 in Gibraltar, and St Josephs now face the task of overturning that deficit at Europa Sports Park. The Gibraltar side has been inconsistent across the season, and their recent form is not the kind that inspires confidence heading into a must-win European night. Bohemians, by contrast, arrive in strong shape and with the psychological comfort of that first-leg cushion. Alan Reynolds’ side beat Shelbourne 3-0 in their most recent League of Ireland fixture, a result that showed real attacking intent just days before this return match.

Two players stand out from the Bohemians roster. Dawson Devoy has been their most consistent presence in midfield, logging the most pass attempts across their last three games and contributing directly to the team’s structure. Colm Whelan offers a different dimension up front, with two assists and a goal across the same period, making him the man St Josephs’ backline will need to track most carefully.

Hot stat: Bohemians have registered 33 total shots across their last five matches compared to St Josephs’ 10. That is a significant difference in attacking output, and it points to a match where the Irish side will dominate possession and territory once again.

St Josephs vs Bohemians prediction

Bohemians win this match. That is the straightforward read, and the data supports it at every level. St Josephs were beaten 2-0 in the first leg and now need to score at least three without reply to progress. Their domestic form over the last 30 days shows one match played and zero wins. Their overall season record is 50% but that masks a recent dip, with the last few results showing a pattern of draws and losses. They failed to score in the first leg and managed just 10 shots across their last five games combined.

Bohemians, playing 4-3-3 like their opponents, have a midfield that outnumbers St Josephs in every meaningful metric. Their pass accuracy numbers are real, their interceptions are active, and they have scored seven goals in their last five matches. We think Bohemians score at least once here and see out the tie without too much drama. The away win at odds around 1.50 looks like the most sensible base, but the real value might sit in the total goals market or in Bohemians’ ability to keep a clean sheet again.

St Josephs have committed zero recorded fouls and zero interceptions across their last five matches in the available data, which either reflects incomplete data from the Gibraltar league or a passive defensive shape. Either way, Bohemians showed in the first leg that they could carve through this defence, and there is little reason to think the home side will set up more aggressively here. Their yellow card count across five matches is four, suggesting some discipline, but without the defensive stats to back it up, that discipline may simply reflect a lack of engagement rather than organised defending.

Bohemians have 23 corner kicks across their last five matches. That is an average of over four per game. St Josephs managed eight total. Expect Bohemians to dominate set-piece situations again.

Team Analysis

St Josephs have had a turbulent run through the Gibraltar Premier Division. Their five most recent results include a 3-3 draw with Lions Gibraltar, a 2-3 loss to Mons Calpe, a goalless draw with Europa FC, and a narrow 1-0 win over Lynx. That is one win, two draws, and two losses in domestic play before the first leg of this tie. The 0-2 loss to Bohemians confirmed what the form line suggested: this is a team that struggles to maintain consistency, and their attacking output has been low. The goalless return against Europa FC, a side ranked far below even St Josephs on the world club scale, is telling. Javi Muñoz will need a major tactical shift to get anything from this second leg, and the data does not suggest that shift is coming.

Bohemians come into this match on the back of a 3-0 win over Shelbourne in the League of Ireland Premier Division, a convincing result that followed their first-leg 2-0 victory over St Josephs. Before that, they lost 1-4 to Derry City, which is the one blot in an otherwise positive recent run. Their wins over Sligo Rovers (3-1) and Galway (4-2) show they can score freely against League of Ireland opposition. Two wins from two in the last 30 days, with a 100% win rate in that period. Honestly, this is a team that is hitting a productive patch at the right time. Alan Reynolds has options across the pitch, and the squad depth is visible in the number of players logging meaningful minutes across these matches.

🚨Check out our dedicated St Josephs vs Bohemians stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Bohemians the favourite

• Moneyline St Josephs 6.04 | Bohemians 1.50
• Draw 4.15
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The bookmakers have Bohemians at around 1.50 across most platforms, which reflects an 61% implied probability for the away win. That feels accurate. St Josephs at 6.04 represents the market acknowledging that an upset is possible but very unlikely. The draw at 4.15 is interesting only in the context that a 0-0 or low-scoring draw sends Bohemians through anyway. We think the Bohemians win at 1.50 is fair value given the form gap and the first-leg result. If you want more, Bohemians to win and over 1.5 goals combined could offer a slightly better return with reasonable backing from the stats.

Possible Starting Lineups

St Josephs possible starting eleven

The data available for St Josephs is limited, with several squad members missing position tags and playing time data. Bradley Banda is the clear starter in goal based on appearances. Geovanni Barba picks up two yellow cards across the last five matches, which makes him one to watch if this game gets physical. Javi Muñoz will likely stick with the 4-3-3 shape but may need to push men forward given the deficit, which could leave them exposed at the back. Álvaro Rey and Pablo Rodríguez Moreno are the attacking options, though their output in recent matches has been minimal.

Bohemians possible starting eleven

Paul Walters has featured in all three recent matches and is the first-choice keeper. The back four picks itself based on minutes logged, with Patrick Hickey and Sam Todd as the most active defensive pairing. Dawson Devoy is the engine in midfield, 85 pass attempts across three games and a consistent presence in every metric. Ross Tierney brings a goal and an assist in the same period. Colm Whelan leads the line with two assists and a goal, and his ability to hold up play and create for others makes him the biggest threat St Josephs will face. Bohemians will almost certainly line up in their familiar 4-3-3 shape. Alan Reynolds has no obvious reason to change what has been working.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Bohemians should win this match and progress to the next round of the UEFA Conference League qualifying. The first-leg advantage is significant, the form gap is real, and the stats from their last five matches paint a clear picture. St Josephs managed zero goals in the first leg and have scored just four times across their last five domestic matches in total. They face a Bohemians side that has scored seven in the same stretch and has genuine quality in midfield with Devoy, Tierney, and Flores all contributing across recent games.

We back Bohemians to win here, with the match staying under the kind of scoreline that would create any drama around the tie. St Josephs may create a chance or two on home soil, but their lack of shots and the absence of any real attacking data from the first leg suggests they will not convert. Maybe the most interesting angle is whether Bohemians score two or more again, which the corner and shot stats suggest is genuinely possible. Our tip is Bohemians win, both teams not to score, and the Irish side to advance without much fuss.

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