Rafael Nogueira
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Santos welcome Cruzeiro to Urbano Caldeira in a fixture that pits a mid-table home side chasing consistency against a visitor sitting comfortably inside the top six. Cruzeiro arrive with the better league position, sixth on 42 points against Santos’ 12th spot on 32, and the bookmakers back that gap by giving the Raposa 39% versus 32% for the hosts. Santos have quietly strung together decent home form this month, five wins from their last nine matches, and Cuca’s men will fancy denying Artur Jorge’s side an easy night on the coast.
Watch Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior closely. He has featured in only two of Santos’ last five games but remains the one player capable of shifting the game’s rhythm on his own whenever fit. On the other side, Matheus Pereira has been Cruzeiro’s most productive creator recently, contributing two goals and three assists across his last five appearances, and he links the midfield with Kaio Jorge up top.
Hot stat: Cruzeiro fired 79 total shots across their last five matches compared to Santos’ 53, yet the visitors managed only two more goals (8 versus 6) in that span, a sign their finishing has lagged behind their shot volume.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:00 CEST |
Santos vs Cruzeiro prediction
We lean towards Cruzeiro edging this one, but not by much. Their shot output and league position both point to a side that creates more and sits higher for good reason, while Santos’ home form gives them enough of a base to keep the scoreline tight. Our pick leans on both sides scoring, given Santos have netted in four of their last five and Cruzeiro have found the net in four of their own last five as well.
Cruzeiro picked up 12 yellow cards across their last five matches against Santos’ 13, and their foul counts sit close together too (62 versus 70), so expect a physical, stop-start affair rather than a free-flowing one. Cruzeiro’s pass accuracy figure of 2129 completed passes edges Santos’ 2148 raw pass total only slightly, meaning neither side dominates possession by a wide margin. That balance in territory, paired with Cruzeiro’s sharper shot count, is why we expect goals at both ends rather than a one-sided scoreline.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Kaio Jorge to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Santos head into this one on a three-match unbeaten run, closing with a 2-0 win over Atletico Mineiro after a 3-2 thriller against Internacional and a scoreless draw with Palmeiras. Before that stretch, they were beaten 0-3 by the same Palmeiras side, showing how streaky Cuca’s team can be against top-half opposition. The Atletico Mineiro win stood out for defensive solidity, a clean sheet that Santos have struggled to repeat consistently this season given their -1 goal difference in the league table.
Cruzeiro snapped a two-game skid with a 3-1 win over Athletico PR, having lost to Vasco (1-3) and Atletico Mineiro (1-2) either side of a 1-1 draw with the same Mineiro side. That inconsistency against mid-table teams is worth noting given Santos sit in a similar bracket. Artur Jorge’s men still found the net in four of those five matches, which keeps their attacking reputation intact heading into this trip.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Santos | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 3 meetings) | 5 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Santos vs Cruzeiro stats page for more info.
Santos. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Cruzeiro the favourite
- Moneyline Santos 2.88 | Cruzeiro 2.38
- Draw 3.25
The market keeps this close, but Cruzeiro’s shorter odds across nearly every bookmaker reflect their league standing and superior shot volume this season. Santos’ home odds sit just above 2.80 on most books, which tells us the market still respects their home form without fully backing them. We rate the draw price at 3.25 as fair given how tight recent meetings have been between these two.
Possible Starting Lineups
Santos possible starting eleven
- GK: Gabriel Brazão
- DF: Igor Vinicius, Luan Peres, João Ananias, Gonzalo Escobar
- MF: Willian Arão, Gabriel Bontempo
- MF: Thaciano, Christian Oliva, Benjamín Rollheiser
- FW: Gabriel Barbosa
Cuca sticks with his usual 4-2-3-1, built around a settled back four that has played every minute across the last five outings. Gabriel Barbosa leads the line with two goals and two assists in that stretch, while Christian Oliva’s three goals from midfield give Santos an extra scoring outlet. Neymar remains a threat off the bench or in a rotated role given his limited recent minutes.
Cruzeiro possible starting eleven
- GK: Otávio Costa
- DF: Fagner, João Marcelo, Fabrício Bruno, William
- MF: Lucas Romer, Matheus Henrique
- MF: Matheus Pereira, Wesley Gassova, Keny Arroyo
- FW: Kaio Jorge
Artur Jorge mirrors the 4-2-3-1 shape, with Otávio Costa’s 22 saves across five games underlining his busy workload in goal. Kaio Jorge and Keny Arroyo combine for four goals between them recently, giving Cruzeiro’s front line real bite, and Matheus Pereira’s creative numbers make him the player Santos need to contain most.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Cruzeiro. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a tight, goal-involved contest that edges towards Cruzeiro, but not comfortably. Their table position and shot numbers give them the edge on paper, and Kaio Jorge looks the man most likely to make the difference. Santos, to be honest, have enough home comfort and attacking pieces in Barbosa and Oliva to trouble Cruzeiro’s defense, which is why BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 goals stand out as our sharpest angles here. A 2-1 or 1-2 finish would not surprise our punters team at all.
