Levi Rothermund
Germany’s women arrive in Bergen having already sealed their dominance in League A Group D, sitting first with 13 points and a goal difference of +15. Slovenia, rooted at the bottom of the table with just 3 points, face a side that beat them 5-0 earlier in this same campaign. The rematch offers little tactical suspense, but the margin of victory is the real question worth asking. Germany’s attacking efficiency across this qualification cycle has been relentless, and Slovenia’s defensive record of conceding 14 goals in five matches tells its own story.
Two players stand out heading into this fixture. Carlotta Wamser scored in Germany’s most recent outing against Norway and has been a consistent outlet on the right side. For Slovenia, Lara Prasnikar in midfield is one of the few players who generates any attacking intent, taking three shots in their last match, making her the most active creative presence in an otherwise passive setup.
Hot stat: Germany has scored 16 goals in just five group stage matches while conceding only one, a defensive and offensive combination that puts them in a different class from every other team in this group.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Women’s World Cup Qualification UEFA 2026, League A Group D |
| 🏟 Venue: | Brann Stadion, Bergen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 09.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Slovenia (w) vs Germany (w) prediction
Germany winning this match is essentially a certainty. The odds reflect that, with the away side priced at 1.03 to 1.06 across bookmakers. We think the smarter angle here is the total goals market. Germany scored five against Slovenia in the reverse fixture, and Slovenia have shown no significant defensive improvement since then, conceding five to Norway twice in this campaign. Their last match ended in a 0-1 loss to Austria, a team sitting third in the group.
Slovenia’s pass accuracy in their last match was 82%, which sounds decent, but they completed only 361 passes in total compared to Germany’s 510 in their own most recent game. Germany press with structure and recycle possession efficiently, which creates volume in the final third. Slovenia’s 4-2-3-1 may hold shape for stretches, but Germany’s 5-4-1 shape is deceptive as an attacking system, with wing-backs pushing high and flooding wide channels.
Slovenia committed 13 fouls in their last match to Germany’s 6, which signals a reactive defensive approach. More fouls mean more set-piece opportunities for a German side that has already shown quality from dead balls. Expect corners and free kicks to play a role in this one.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Germany to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 3.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Slovenia have collected just one win across five group matches, that solitary victory coming against Austria in a 1-0 result back in early April. Since then, they lost twice to Norway and then dropped their most recent game 0-1 to Austria, the same side they had beaten. Coach Jeff Strasser has struggled to find consistency, and the squad’s form across a longer period is worrying, showing a run that includes multiple three and four-match losing streaks. They managed 14 shots in their last outing but scored none, which points to a finishing problem as much as a structural one.
Germany’s most recent match was a 2-0 win over Norway, a team with nine points in this group and a far stronger recent record than Slovenia. Christian Wuck’s side kept a clean sheet against a difficult opponent and managed their game well, with 583 passes and 510 completed, showing their comfort on the ball. Their only dropped points in this campaign came in a 0-0 draw with Austria, and they bounced back immediately with a 5-1 win over the same side. Germany’s form over the longer term shows consistent winning with only occasional draws, and they enter this match without a single yellow card in their last game.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Slovenia (w) | Germany (w) |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 14 | 8 |
| Corner kicks | 8 | 4 |
| Total fouls | 13 | 6 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 82% | 87% |
| Interceptions | 4 | 7 |
| Offsides | 2 | 4 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Slovenia (w) vs Germany (w) stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Germany (w) the favourite
- Moneyline Slovenia (w) 17.00 | Germany (w) 1.03–1.06
- Draw 9.50–10.00
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
At 1.03 to 1.06, Germany’s win odds offer almost no value for a straight result bet. The bookmakers have priced this as a near-certainty, and honestly, the data backs that up completely. Slovenia at 17.00 is an enormous price that reflects just how one-sided this matchup is. The draw at 9.50 to 10.00 is similarly unappetizing. We think the value, if any exists, sits in the handicap or goals markets rather than the moneyline. Germany covering a -3.5 goal line is worth considering given the 5-0 scoreline from the reverse fixture.
Possible Starting Lineups
Slovenia (w) possible starting eleven
- GK: Zala Mersnik
- DF: Sara Agrez, Lana Golob
- MF: Lara Prasnikar, Dominika Čonč, Kaja Korošec, Izabela Krizaj, Zara Kramzar, Mateja Zver
- FW: Kaja Erzen
Slovenia’s 4-2-3-1 shape is built around a compact midfield block, but the personnel available limits what Strasser can realistically ask of this team. Lara Prasnikar is the most productive attacking midfielder in the squad based on shot volume, and Dominika Čonč provides the highest pass output in midfield. Sara Agrez at right back registered a yellow card in the last match and will need to be disciplined against Germany’s wide runners. Zala Mersnik in goal will likely face a heavy workload and her four saves in the last match suggest she is capable of making contributions, though the volume of chances Germany creates will test her throughout.
Germany (w) possible starting eleven
- GK: Ann Katrin Berger
- DF: Kathrin Hendrich, Rebecca Knaak, Sophia Kleinherne
- MF: Sjoeke Nüsken, Klara Buhl, Elisa Senss, Jule Brand, Linda Dallmann
- FW: Carlotta Wamser, Lea Schuller
Germany’s 5-4-1 system functions more like a 3-4-3 in possession, with the wing-backs advancing to create width. Rebecca Knaak completed 91 of 97 passes in the last match, the highest accuracy figure in the squad, and anchors the right side of the defensive line. Linda Dallmann contributed two assists against Norway and is the creative engine in the middle. Carlotta Wamser scored last time out and leads the line with physical presence. Ann Katrin Berger behind them should have a quiet evening but has shown she can distribute cleanly when called upon. Germany’s pressing triggers high up the pitch will cause Slovenia problems early.
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Germany (w). Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Germany win this match. That much is settled. The question is how many. Slovenia have conceded 14 goals in five group games, lost the reverse fixture 5-0, and their most recent performance produced zero goals from 14 shots. Germany, by contrast, have scored 16 in five games and kept four clean sheets, including a 2-0 result against the second-placed Norway just days ago.
We think Germany scores at least three, probably more, and Slovenia does not find the net. Their 13 fouls in the last match signal a team defending reactively, and Germany’s movement off the ball will open gaps. Linda Dallmann’s creativity and Carlotta Wamser’s finishing make them the most likely combination to do damage early. If Germany go ahead inside 20 minutes, and they likely will, this match could turn into a routine exercise in accumulation. Over 3.5 goals for Germany and a clean sheet looks like the most honest read of this fixture.
