Sofia Quijada
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Corinthians welcome Estudiantes LP to the Neo Quimica Arena for the second leg of a quarterfinal tie that finished level at 1-1 in Argentina. The Brazilian side arrive with only one win from their last seven games across all competitions, a run that includes a heavy loss to Flamengo just days ago. Estudiantes, by contrast, have won four of their last eight and looked sharp beating Platense in their most recent outing. The tie sits perfectly balanced on the scoreboard, but the form lines going into it are anything but even.
Watch Guido Carrillo up top for Estudiantes, he has fired 22 shots and scored twice in his last five appearances and is the visitors’ clearest goal threat. On the home side, Kaio César has been Corinthians’ most productive midfielder recently with 2 goals, an assist and 15 free kicks taken, he sets the tempo from deep and dead-ball situations.
Hot stat: Estudiantes have racked up 93 fouls across their last five matches, 21 more than Corinthians’ 72, yet still lead the shot count 80 to 67. That combination of physical pressure and volume in front of goal is exactly the profile that troubled Corinthians in the first leg.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Libertadores 2026, Quarterfinals |
| 🏟 Venue: | Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo |
| 🗓️ Date: | 17.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:30 CEST |
Corinthians Paulista vs Estudiantes LP prediction
The bookmakers price Corinthians as favourites near evens, but the numbers behind that line do not hold up under scrutiny. Corinthians have won just once in seven games domestically, while Estudiantes arrive with a 50% win rate over their last eight and momentum from a 2-1 win over Platense. We predict the draw carries more value than the home price suggests, especially with the first leg already settled at 1-1 and both sides showing they can hurt and be hurt in equal measure.
Style-wise, Estudiantes commit more fouls (93 vs 72) and pick up more cards (19 vs 17) over the last five games, a sign of a side that presses aggressively and is willing to break up rhythm. Corinthians hold a slight passing edge in raw volume but their pass accuracy numbers trail Estudiantes’ completion rate, which lines up with a team lacking confidence right now. Expect a scrappy, cut-up midfield battle rather than a free-flowing one, which favours goals arriving from set pieces and transitions rather than sustained buildup.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Match to be level after 90 minutes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Corinthians go into this second leg on the back of a 1-2 loss to Flamengo, their fifth defeat in the last seven games. That result also continued a rough recent stretch that includes losses to Santos and Coritiba, and only a single draw against Estudiantes to show any resistance. In our preview of Flamengo RJ vs Corinthians Paulista we backed the home win alongside over 2.5 goals, with a Flamengo clean sheet floated as a side angle. The 2-1 final score delivered both the winner and the over, though Corinthians’ own goal ruled out the clean sheet, so our core call landed even as the bonus pick missed.
Estudiantes head into Sao Paulo off a 2-1 win over Platense, their fourth victory in the last eight games and a result that pushed their recent form clearly above Corinthians’. Alexis Castro’s goal contribution and Guido Carrillo’s continued sharpness in front of goal have carried the attack, while the back four built around Gonzalez Pirez and Santiago Núñez has stayed settled across the last five fixtures. That consistency in selection gives Alexander Medina a clear platform to work from in a knockout leg away from home.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Corinthians Paulista | Estudiantes LP |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Corinthians Paulista vs Estudiantes LP stats page for more info.
Estudiantes LP. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Corinthians Paulista the favourite
- Moneyline Corinthians Paulista 1.86 | Estudiantes LP 4.50
- Draw 3.25
Corinthians sit as favourites at close to even money purely on home advantage and the Neo Quimica Arena factor. The market average puts them at 49%, the draw at 30% and Estudiantes at 21%, but given the visitors’ superior recent form we think that draw price undersells the actual chance of a repeat stalemate. Backing Estudiantes outright at 4.50 is a live outsider play too, perhaps the better long-odds punt given how they have traveled through this competition so far.
Possible Starting Lineups
Corinthians Paulista possible starting eleven
- GK: Kauê
- DF: Matheuzinho, Tchoca, Pedro Milans, Fabrizio Angileri
- MF: Breno Bidon, Charles, Rodrigo Garro, Kaio César, Matheus Pereira
- FW: Gui Negão
Fernando Diniz sticks with the 4-2-3-1 that has featured in every one of the last five games. Kaio César and Rodrigo Garro carry the creative load behind Gui Negão, while Breno Bidon’s card count suggests he is doing the defensive dirty work in midfield. Watch how Angileri copes bombing forward against Estudiantes’ wide threats.
Estudiantes LP possible starting eleven
- GK: Fernando Muslera
- DF: Eros Nazareno Mancuso, Gastón Benedetti, Santiago Núñez, Leandro Gonzalez Pirez
- MF: Gabriel Neves, Lucas Piovi, José Sosa, Alexis Castro, Baltasar Gallego Rodriguez
- FW: Guido Carrillo
Medina also runs a 4-2-3-1, with Neves and Piovi screening a back four that has started together in all five recent games. Muslera’s experience behind that unit matters in a knockout away leg, and Carrillo leading the line alone puts the goal-scoring burden squarely on him, backed by Castro and Gallego pushing up from midfield.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Corinthians Paulista. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our punters team leans toward the draw as the core play here, priced fairly at odds near 3.25 and backed by the tied first leg plus Corinthians’ shaky domestic form colliding with a in-form Estudiantes side. Both teams to score also stands out given Estudiantes’ 93 fouls and 80 shots over their last five compared to Corinthians’ own attacking numbers, this has the makings of a tight, foul-heavy tie decided by a single moment rather than a one-sided scoreline. To be honest, Corinthians’ home advantage keeps them in it, but we do not see enough in their recent results to trust them as clear winners on the night.
Read also: Corinthians – SP vs Estudiantes La Plata Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form (Updated September 2026)
Read also: Predicted Lineups: Corinthians – SP vs Estudiantes La Plata – Expected XIs and Team News
