LDU Quito vs Palmeiras Prediction: 17.09.2026 Copa Libertadores

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LDU Quito welcome Palmeiras to Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado carrying a 0-1 deficit from the first leg of this Copa Libertadores quarterfinal tie. The two clubs met in last year’s semifinal too, where Palmeiras crushed LDU 4-0 away before the Ecuadorians hit back 3-0 at altitude, a split that still saw the Brazilians progress on aggregate. That history matters here: LDU have shown they can hurt Palmeiras in Quito, and Abel Ferreira knows a repeat scoreline would end his side’s run.

Watch Michael Estrada for LDU Quito. He leads the hosts’ recent goal tally and draws fouls that could open set-piece chances in a stadium where altitude already troubles visiting sides. On the other side, Vitor Roque has racked up 18 shots in his last five appearances for Palmeiras and remains the focal point of Abel Ferreira’s attack whenever the visitors need a away-from-home away goal.

Hot stat: Palmeiras have fired 115 shots across their last five matches against LDU’s 74, yet both clubs scored an identical five goals in that span, proof that Ferreira’s side create far more without always finishing.

LDU Quito vs Palmeiras prediction

We lean toward LDU Quito winning this specific leg. The hosts need goals and altitude plus home support usually lift their intensity in these fixtures, as shown by last year’s 3-0 win over this very opponent. Palmeiras arrive unbeaten in nine of their last ten matches, but three draws in their last five suggest a side that can be neutralized when pressed high, exactly what LDU’s 4-2-3-1 is built for.

LDU commit more fouls per match (112 to Palmeiras’ 85 in the last five) and picked up more yellow cards early in games, a pattern of physical, disruptive football that suits a must-win night. Palmeeiras control possession and generate more corners (43 to 21) and free kicks (100 to 61), but their pass accuracy edge is marginal, both sides sit around 83%. Expect a scrappier game than the first leg, with LDU’s directness likely to produce the game’s opening goal.

Team Analysis

LDU Quito’s last five results read draw, loss, win, draw, loss, a stretch that shows real inconsistency against domestic and continental opposition alike. Their most recent outing ended 1-1 against Deportivo Cuenca, a result that did little to settle nerves ahead of this second leg. Before that came the 0-1 loss to Palmeiras in the first leg, sandwiched between a solid 3-1 win over Tecnico Universitario and a flat 0-0 draw with Mushuc Runa. Gustavo Alvarez’s men need a much sharper final third performance than they’ve shown in these games if they want to flip the tie.

Palmeiras enter on a stronger run, winning five, drawing three and losing just once in their last nine outings, with the most recent match a comfortable 2-0 win over Sao Paulo. In our preview of Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo we called a tight home win with the total goals under 2.5 and both teams to score marked no, and the 2-0 scoreline delivered exactly that. Before the Sao Paulo game Palmeiras beat LDU 1-0 in the first leg, and drew twice more against Botafogo and Santos, both goalless. Abel Ferreira’s side looks defensively sound but has struggled to score more than once in four of its last five matches, a detail LDU’s punters team will want to exploit.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

Beyond the first leg of this very tie, LDU Quito and Palmeiras clashed twice in the 2025 Copa Libertadores semifinal, with Palmeiras winning the away leg 4-0 before LDU hit back 3-0 at home, Palmeeiras still advancing on aggregate. The table below reflects each side’s broader statistical output from their last five matches overall, useful context for how this second leg could play out physically and tactically.

🚨Check out our dedicated LDU Quito vs Palmeiras stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: LDU Quito the marginal favourite

• Moneyline LDU Quito 2.62 | Palmeiras 2.73
• Draw 3.10

The market barely separates the two sides, and that lines up with the bookmakers’ percentage split of 36% for LDU, 30% for the draw and 34% for Palmeeiras. Home advantage at altitude explains LDU’s slight edge in the odds, even though Palmeeiras hold the aggregate lead from the first leg. We wouldn’t be surprised if late line movement tightens further given how close the last two meetings between these clubs have been.

Possible Starting Lineups

LDU Quito possible starting eleven

Alvarez tends to stick with his 4-2-3-1 shape, and the minutes data backs a settled back four built around Allala and Weigandt. Carabali’s interception numbers make him the likely defensive midfield screen, freeing Pretell and Gonzalez to support Estrada, who remains the team’s most direct goal threat.

Palmeiras possible starting eleven

Abel Ferreira keeps faith in his usual 4-2-3-1, with Freitas and Evangelista shielding a back line led by captain Gomez. Giay’s two goals from defense stand out as a genuine set-piece weapon, while Roque leads the line as the team’s primary finisher against a defense that has conceded plenty of shots recently.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

We predict LDU Quito to win the match itself, driven by altitude, home urgency and a defense that has shown it can frustrate Palmeeiras’ possession game for long spells, as it did last year. Palmeeiras’ scoring struggles in recent weeks, just one goal in three of their last five outings, give the hosts a real path to at least a share of the goals. Perhaps the tie still swings Palmeeiras’ way on the night given their squad depth, but backing goals at both ends and a spirited LDU display feels like the sharper angle here. To be honest, a repeat of last year’s altitude-fueled comeback wouldn’t shock our punters team at all.

Read also: Liga de Quito vs Palmeiras Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form (Updated September 2026)

Read also: Liga Dep Universitaria Quito vs Palmeiras – SP Predicted Lineups, Team News & Expected XIs

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